moonslav59

Teenie Tiny Sample Sizes ST OPS 2.300 EHern 1.682 Duran 1.569 Chavis 1.500 Verdugo 1.318 Munoz 1.262 Downs .856 Devers .844 Renfroe .833 Arauz .818 JD .667 Vaz .444 Arroyo

LOL. My picks... Over/Under? Over Sale 80 IP Under Richards 100 IP Under Eovaldi 120 IP Over ERod 140 IP Over Houck 4.00 ERA Under Pivetta 4.50 ERA Under Vaz .790 OPS Over Dalbec .800 OPS Over EHern .750 Way Over Devers .890 Over Bogey .890 Under JD .850 Under Verdugo .850 Under Renfroe .800 Over Cordero 100 games Big Questions: Who plays the more innings in CF? X Verdugo Cordero EHern Duran (Who gets the least of those 4? Cordero) Who gets more saves? X Ottavino Barnes (Who blows more saves? Ottavino) Who has the best ERA in 2021 (assuming 80+ IP)? Sale X ERod Richards Eovaldi Who gets more PAs? Marwin X Arroyo Chavis

I figured it was something like that, and I have very little hope he can or will come anywhere near those numbers again, but it's nice to have one more long shot to pull for. I didn't mean my post to be antagonistic, but I thought maybe you might want to know, I don't click on the comps.

Over/Under? Sale 80 IP Richards 100 IP Eovaldi 120 IP ERod 140 IP Houck 4.00 ERA Pivetta 4.50 ERA Vaz .790 OPS Dalbec .800 OPS EHern .750 Devers .890 Bogey .890 JD .850 Verdugo .850 Renfroe .800 Cordero 100 games Big Questions: Who plays the more innings in CF? Verdugo Cordero EHern Duran (Who gets the least of those 4?) Who gets more saves? Ottavino Barnes (Who blows more saves?) Who has the best ERA in 2021 (assuming 80+ IP)? Sale ERod Richards Eovaldi Who gets more PAs? Marwin Arroyo Chavis

I remember that stretch against KC. UGH-LEEEEE! West coast trips used to kill us, too.

Not trying to be mean or anything, but these comps to Seattle players do not interest me in the least. (I never click the link. Maybe other do.)

...and Burleson had a .365 OBP in 1976 and a respectable .338 in 1977 (.351 combining the previous 2 seasons).

I agree. (I had hoped we got Verdugo and Maeda, but we did well.)

I hope I end up being wrong about Chavis- the guy I traded most on the BTV site. I have said he deserves a long look, this year, and I think that even more after this start to ST'ing.

Oh, I'm expecting many "no's." If I had to pick the most likely, it would be Chavis, Richards and Eovaldi. Cordero might be, too. We don't need a ton of "yeses" to give us something to build around for 2022 and beyond. I'm thinking Devers will be a yes- he will bust out beyond 2019 numbers, this year or next, IMO. I think Sale becomes great again, but maybe not in 2021. Ottavino doesn't matter, because he's got one year left, as do some others. ERod is 50-50. I love the guy and if he looks good, I hope we extend him. I've always been high on Dalbec, so I'm thinking "yes." D Hern is 50-50. Houck is someone I find hard thinking better than 50-50. I actually like Pivetta more than most- maybe more than Houck.

I hear you, and agree. I'm not on the side of those who think overkill is such a bad thing. I, too, loved our chances in 2018 from day one (and before opening day, too.) I liked our chances in 2019, but I quickly soured and was one of the first to give up on 2019. (I'm usually one of the last.) I don't blame team management for choosing to reset after 2019, and once that became a priority, the Betts choice became an either or choice. Either we pay Betts and have a bad team around him, or we pay several players what we would have paid Betts. It kills me to see Betts in Dodger blue, and I wanted us to keep him, but the choice to let him go had a lot of merit, too. I think we'll be back on top, sooner than some think.

Yes, and this is not the first year we re-set or didn't go over the tax line. We've even gone back-to-back before. Years paying no tax: 1997 2000 2001 2002 2003 2008 2009 2012 2013 2014 2017 2020 My guess is, we go over, next winter, so looking at this chart, it looks like we re-set and were more frugal before 2015. We've only re-set twice since 2014 (2017 & 2020). I'm just not getting the Henry bashing and never did.

I'm not projecting greatness from a player who had just one, outlandishly outlier season, but Danny Santana had these numbers in 2019: .283 28 81 in just 474 ABs .324 OBP .534 SLG .857 OPS That projects over 162 games to.... .283 34 100 (with 69 XBHs and 26 SBs)

Weird how the two times the Sox apparently tried to do "what it took" to "get over the hump," the league stopped them. As a frustrated Sox fan all those years, I often told my fellow Sox fans and friends, "I'd take 10 last place finishes, if we just went all in to win just one ring." Now, that feeling was not present after the 2004 ring, but I meant what I said. I'd have take a ring followed by a huge fire sale and 10 years of horrific teams for just one ring. That's one reason I can never fault Henry- ever! Not only did he help build teams that won 3 rings, we were good enough, on paper, to be serious contenders in many more seasons and pre-seasons. The 2020 season was about the only exception, but had Sale and ERod not gone down, it might not have been so bad. (We may have even made a few deals to try and be a little more respectable.)

Certainly, I'd rather have Betts than Price, but since I thought the Price signing was needed, I feel like I'd be hypocritical to say, "We should not have signed Price, so we could keep Betts," and probably just not having his contract would have made it much more doable. There is a chance, however, that even if we hadn't signed any combination of Price, Eovaldi, JD, Sale or Bogey, we still may have just deemed Betts's demands as just too much to agree to. While Price's contract was about one-sixth of our player budget, it was for 7 years not 10-12. Personally, I think the Dodgers made out on the signing, but paying him that much and giving up Verdugo, Downs and Wong seems like an overpay.

True, and maybe I'm too close to the subjects of these questions, but ours seem deeper and more significant. Many are health-related, as with many teams. Some are based on knowing so little about some players due to small, scattered or foreign sample sizes (Houck, Cordero and Sawamura to name just 3).

Hard to disagree, but I often got the sense that the Sox refused to just go that extra step to put them over the top and become the prohibitive favorite to win it all during years where they clearly were a strong contender, until Henry rolled into town. Now, had Bowie Kuhn allowed the Rollie Fingers & Joe Rudi deal to stand, maybe... (The yanks also had the Vida Blue deal nixed, too.)

Off to a good start, today. ERod went 2.2 IP (1 ER). 4 runs scored in the 1st with the first 6 guys getting a hit or a walk.

I'm not complaining about the great Manny signing- just pointing out that we had to dump him, and that was an 8 year deal- not 12. Look, I was one of the few saying pay Mookie for 12 years, so I'm not happy we lost him, but clearly there is a strong justification for not committing 1/6th of your yearly player budget to one guy for 10-12 years. You can convince yourself, henry can and could spend all he wants, but he hasn't, doesn't and won't- like it or not. He has limits, and I'll never bash the greatest owner this team has ever seen. You haven't responded to the facts presented about this team changing stars every 2-3 years with near total turnovers every 2-4 years. This is not any different from the strategy that has brought us 4 rings, except that Betts was not on the wrong side of 30, but then again, no past star was demanding 10+ years and $35M plus before, either. I wish we still had Betts, but with a pretty much limited spending budget, the rest of the team would have been severely restricted by spending allowances for 10 more years. It wasn't a slam dunk decision to sign Betts.

Basically, everyone but Verdugo, Bogey (except opt out) and Perez have significant questions to be answered.

Their years total about the same, combined. In hindsight, I agree, but I really liked the sale extension, so I can't really, now say we shoulda-coulda...

He's supposed to be a huge plus on D. Why say "average D?" "Strong instincts and reads. Very quick first step. Really can go get it with great closing speed. Will make highlight-reel plays, fun to watch. Potential plus defender in center field. Above-average arm. Plenty for any outfield position. Speed and defense are known quantitites..." -soxprospects.com

I totally agree. Things could go horribly wrong, too. A lot of questions will be answered- for good or bad. Is Vaz worth extending? (.798 from 2019-2020 is great for a catcher) I'm hoping Chavis gets a chance to prove he belongs or frees up a roster spot for 2022. Is Dalbec for real? (Can he offset the high K's with a decent OBP? It looks like the power is real. 2B? EHern, Arroyo, Arauz, Munoz, Downs, Chavis, Marwin- can one show they own and deserve the job? Bogey, will he opt out? Devers, can he get consistent on D? Can he repeat or improve on 2019? Renfroe-Cordero? Platoon or FT or bye-bye after 2021? Verdugo? Not much to question, here, except maybe whether CF or RF is best for him. JD? Was 2020 a sign of serious decline or a blip? Sale? Can he regain all of most of his greatness again? maybe 2021 can give us a sign. ERod? Did COVID hurt him long term? Should we extend or re-sign him? Eovaldi? Will he ever put in a full season? Richards? It's been a long time since he's pitcher even near a full season. Will 2021 be it? Pivetta? He's got the stuff, but can he put it all together? Perez? I think we know what he brings. Houck? Were those 3 starts just a tease? Ottavino? Can you give us a big year? can you close? Barnes? Can you be our solid #2 again? DHern? At a record breaking K/9 pace, but can you slow the walks? Taylor, Brasier, Andriese, Brice, Sawamura, Whitlock and others? Can just 1 or 2 of you do much better than last year's clown circus?

Exactly. As much as I argued to keep Betts, this would have been unchartered territory for the Sox, despite their history of some pretty big contracts in the recent past.

Price: no, but at the time, his signing made sense, so I find it hard to use him as a tool on why we let Betts walk, assuming he would have signed with us for $1M more than the Dodgers.