moonslav59

One for one trades per BTV: Devers (77.2) 79.4 Luis Castillo 77.1 Lucas Giolito 72.7 Zach Wheeler 71.2 Aaron Nola Bogey (52.4 seems wrong, if he opts out) 51.1 Julio Urias 51.0 S McClanahan 50.2 Dylan Cease 49.6 Tyler Mahle 47.9 Max Fried 43.0 Logan Gilbert 42.9 Jose Berrios Say Bogey is worth 22-25: 25.6 Jose Urquidy 25.3 Dane Dunning 25.2 Logan Webb 24.6 Ole Frankie Montas 23.1 Jesus Luzardo 22.6 Kyle Muller 22.1 Cristian Javier 21.9 Patrick Sandoval Downs (20, also seems high) 23.2 Ryan Wathers 22.2 JT Brubaker Vaz (0- dropped from 20 in April to 11 in June to 0, now) A bag of used balls

I'm not even sure it's worth going over everybody one-by-one. I'd need a page on each! We need some serious staff improvement, and to me, we could help that along, immensely, by greatly improving the defense. I know it looks hard replacing Vaz and maybe Bogey, or moving Bogey and Devers, but that sure simplifies greatly, and I don't use the word greatly lightly, improving the pitching before even spending a dime.

Trying to emulate the hot team usually doesn't work, but if anyone knows the ins and out on how Tampa does it, it's Bloom. It will take time to build a system like theirs, and some insightful posters have pointed out there have not been all that many changes made to key positions in the organization. If we can just approach the Rays with their abilities to spot and develop talent- not just in the farm system, we should able to overtake them by bashing them with key FA signings. How long will it take? Someone told me, recently how "the cliff" was only a 60 game season long, but maybe it's actually longer when looking where we are right at this instant.

The pitching is way more complicated, for sure. How many returning pitchers have few question marks? Even Sale & Eovaldi have their share.

Can we clone you?

It was not a known, Sale would comeback like he has- weak opponents and all. Had we known for sure about the 3 things I listed, and if I gave the numbers for Kimbrel and Rizzo- the two most talked about trade deadline targets, would posters have been happy or sad we did not make those two trades? Sure, in hindsight, I can find 2-3 other trades that would have made us better, but there are at least two factors involved: 1. What would we have given up (and did we even have the right pieces to give up for some of the bigger names)? 2. Would adding 2-3 decent players have really made a difference, beyond making a few fans and posters happy? One poster wanted us to trade for CJ Cron and Jon Gray. Cron since deadline: 1.240 (11 HR and 34 RBI in 27 games) Gray 1-5 5.72

...a better interpretation, but not the full story. Feel free to add your own suggestions.

Or move him to 3B and Devers to 1B.

"That's not Danny Diaz!" -Coach White

We didn't know Sale would be 3-0. Yes, we needed pitching. Everyone agrees. What we don't agree on, is how much Bloom should have given up to get it. We can also agree on how wrong he looks getting Robles and Davis, although Davis has looked better than Kimbrel since the deadline. Bloom certainly chose to not give up more than he wanted of the future. He might have felt we'd make the playoffs without a splashy move to get a pitcher or two, but to me, it was about him setting a price and not going over it. If we miss the playoffs- fine go after Bloom all you want. I'll still think his outlook was the right one- it just did not work for 2021, too well. Without knowing what pieces he'd have to have given up, I won't bash him. I also won't use 20-20 hindsight and find some low return pitcher who did great after the trade to dangle over Blooms head while yelling that he's an idiot. We could have traded for KImbrel, and you'd have been happy, yet we'd still be sucking. We could have made a brilliant trade for some unknown RP'er who ended up doing great, yes, but I'm not holding that over Bloom. BTW, the offense has been part of the problem.

Here is how I see next year’s players and their roles on an improving team. I’ll start with our catchers. C You all know how I feel about how he handles the staff. You can believe what you want, but the facts are clear: almost every pitcher with significant IP with more than one catcher does or did better with almost every catcher not named Vazquez, except Swihart, where sample sizes were mostly small and clumped. He frames the pitches well, blocks wild pitches well enough, and has had a decent CS% most seasons. His bat has been a rollercoaster ride like maybe no other Sox hitter I’ve known. He has shown long flashes of being one of the game’s best hitting catcher to being okay to putrid. I don’t hold the start of anyone’s career against them, and Vaz got hurt and missed his second season. You can say I’m cherry-picking sample sizes, but here it is: .602 2014-2016 (385 PAs) .735 2017 (345 PAs) .540 2018 (269) .798 2019-2020 (655) .647 2021 (423) One could argue he’s due for an up offensive year, but I think the catching slot on the 2022 team needs a change. That doesn’t mean I want to trade Vaz for crap. I don’t hate the guy or think he’s worthless. I’m not sure if any GMs see what I do in his pitcher-handling numbers, but my guess is some GM values him highly- just as some smart posters here, do. Catchers are very hard to find, and although he has just one year left or team control at a moderate price of $7M (option wit $250K buy out). I have no idea how to replace him. Like I said, good catchers are few and far between, but great defensive catchers usually cost way less- guys like Sandy Leon. I actually like Plawecki as a back-up and would offer him his final arb year. The farm has a couple somewhat promising catchers, but it’s hard to know with catchers: Connor Wong and Ronald Hernandez. All-in-all, I think we need a redo at catcher. We can absorb a weak bat, but we need someone who can get the best out of our staff, build confidence in our young pitchers and handle himself very well behind the plate. 1B I won’t discuss current Sox players who will be or will likely be free agents, except to say the if we keep Schwarber, he may be used at 1B and the shorter corner OF slot, plus DH when JD sits or if JD takes the opt out. I want to talk about Dalbec. Most of you know, I have always been higher than most on him, although there was a brief moment, this year, where I thought he should be demoted to work on his swing, and his swing is the big issue. The guy K’s a lot. I mean A LOT! We all knew this coming into the season. We were encouraged by his brief 2020 production, but I don’t think anyone expected him to have a year close to those numbers (.959 OPS). I know minor league OBP’s don’t always translate well to the majors, especially for high K players, but I had hopes his .362 OBP on the farm could translate to .320 or .333. Sadly, it has not (.307), and he really needs to improve on that or hit 45 jacks to hold his own against other 1Bmen in MLB. He will not gain any points on defense. In fact, he lost a lot, this year, so Bobby Dee has to improve to keep the position an even or plus slot for the Sox. His recent hot streak is encouraging, but we’ve seen it before. He needs to show better consistency and patience at the plate. He needs to improve his defense of go play DH for an NL club. The other big plus to Bobby Dee is his low contract cost on a team looking to avoid paying high taxes. The other choice at 1B is moving Devers from 3B. We’ve all talked about this numerous times, then he seems to start playing plus D for a lengthy time, only to lapse into wild throwing stretches. Half his errors are throwing, so in a simple world, it makes sense to move him to 1B. In fact, it’s more complicated than that. Personally, I think nothing bothers Devers, so he would mold quickly into a plus defensive 1Bman in a short time-maybe even over a winter and ST’ing- hint, hint. If we move Devers, we’ll need a 3Bman, and that will likely cost more than Dalbec-financially or by trade. Either way, I doubt we go outside the organization to improve 1B, although a big choice does need to be made. (Maybe Bloom & Co. aren’t even thinking of moving Devers and never will.) Our 1Bman will be Dalbec. 2B I really like Arroyo a lot. On the surface, it looks like he is injury prone, but when you look at what he has missed time for, I’m not so sure. I do think we need a strong utility back-up for the middle IF positions, so we don’t have to use Kike at 2B as much as we did, this year (see CF). I’m not counting on Munoz, Arauz or Downs as competent MLB utility players, but there is a chance one or two could rise to fill the role nicely in 2022. I just would not bet on it. I hope we can do better than Marwin. 2B is an easy position to call for 2022: Arroyo full time. SS Here is the key position, in my opinion. Many would and will call me nuts for even suggesting we move Bogey to 3B or trade him before his opt out winter of 2023. I am very biased. I know that. I think great SS D, no I mean fantastic SS D is a major priority to winning baseball. Yes, you can win without it, and boy did we win in 2018. I’m not saying SS D is essential, but with Bogey likely opting out after 2022 or extending at a high cost, I think we have to look at some option. We have Arauz and Downs as back-ups, so if he moves or is traded we need to acquire an outstanding defensive SS. I’m partial to Simmons, but I guess we could go cheap and sign Iggy to a shorter term deal to give us a chance to look at Downs and Mayer a bit more closely, although Mayer is a long way away. Please, don’t take these statements to mean I think Bogey sucks or is a net negative value. He is far from it. Plus, fans love him. Trading him is complicated. Moving him to 3B pretty much insures he opts out and bolts. Our choice at SS is already made: it’s Bogey. I’d like to see a change. 3B I want us to lock Devers up for the rest of his career, if that’s what it takes to get him to sign a long term deal. You’ve heard me say, “Devers forevers,” and I mean it. I’m not sure I want him at 3B. For 2/3 of a season, he looks fine or better than fine. The other 1/3, I’m convinced a move is needed. Someone pointed out his fielding slumps match up with his batting slumps, so maybe he’s getting distracted somehow, but this kid is a keeper. One reason I love Devers is that nothing seems to bother him. He reminds me of Manny, in that way. Child like. His hitting approach differs from almost everyone else, and to me that is a huge plus. When the rest of the team is struggling vs a pitcher who is on his game, Devers will hit a pitch 6 inches out of the K zone for a 3-run job and the win. He seems to rise to the occasion, but I don’t want to be accused of saying I believe clutch is a skill. (If it is, he has it.) Dalbec at 3B is not an option, except as a back-up. If we move Devers to 1B, we’ll need a 3Bman (Bogey?). Devers will be our starting 3Bman in 2022. If he’s not, I’ll think more highly of Bloom and Cora than I already do. (See moving Bogey, too.) LF Schwarber in LF in Fenway seems like a natural fit. If he can play some 1B (maybe to spell Dalbec vs tough righties), he could be a great fit for this team, even if JD returns. Since this is about 2022, I won’t get into him being our DH after JD bolts. Verdugo or Renfroe are fine LF’ers, too. It looks like LF might also be Duran’s best defensive OF position, and I see him as our 4th OF’er playing almost LF only. Not knowing about Schwarber. I see this: Verdugo is our FT LF’er in 2022 with Duran playing LF anytime an starting OF is not in the line-up. CF From the moment we signed Kike, I wanted him as our FT CF’er. “He was signed to play 2B,” I was told, but I think we all know by now, this team is much better defensively and offensively with Kike in CF and Arroyo at 2B. I’m not usually one to shut off any debate, but on this, I think we should be in universal agreement. Kike is our FT CF’er for 2022. When he sits or is needed at 2B, Verdugo or Renfroe should play CF, at least until Duran proves he can be a plus defender out there. RF Renfroe has been one of the most pleasant surprises for the Sox in 2021. He has a fantastic arm for Fenway’s expansive RF, but his UZR/150 points to him being a not-so-good defensive OF’er. When the season started, I thought Verdugo would play RF and Renfroe would platoon with Cordero in LF. Renfroe started out very slowly, and there were many posters calling for a demotion, platoon or worse, but man-o-man, he sure picked things up. He’s hit .879 since May 1st (24 HRs, 24 2Bs and 69 RBI in 97 games). I gotta think he’s the FT RF’er, next year. Renfroe is the FT RF’er for the Sox in 2022. DH Opt out or not. Most think JD will not opt out, but I’m not so certain. I could see him extending with us- Schwarber or not- or opting out and taking a bigger guaranteed contract over a one year higher paying deal he has with us. If I had to bet… JD is our FT DH in 2022. (If not, I hope it’s Schwarber.) I’ll go over the more complicated pitching staff, when I have some more time.

Are you still happy about what you gave up for what you got back?

If I gave you these stat lines on trade deadline day and said these three guys would have these numbers on September 1st, we'd all have been dancing in the streets. 1.170 OPS Dalbec (8 HRs and 24 RBI in 26 games) 1.092 OPS Schwarber (.492 OBP) These aren't just any 3 players. These were widely viewed as key players needing to contribute more than they had before the deadline. Little did we know, the whole rest of the team would implode, all at once. 3-0 2.35 ERA Chris Sale (15.1 IP/ 21 K)

Call it what you want. That's what I called it. Several said more that "they suck." They gave up on the season- like I'm getting close to doing. I'm not trying to be holier than thou. I was one of the first to jump ship in 2019. That was "sad," too. This team is playing like crap and now has so many guys out, I can't recognize who is who. I need the announcers to tell me who is pitching or hitting. It's a sad time in Red Sox Nation. I'm still clinging to a sliver of hope. It doesn't make me a better fan than anyone else.

Not only do we need Sale to be on top of his game, we need him to be efficient with his pitches, so he can go as deep as possible.

You guys are hanging tough- just 3.5 off the WC2 slot, but two teams to beat.

We sucked... again.

Just when hopes were rising on Taillon improving and Kluber returning, poof

One major problem is that our weakest defensive positions are SS, C, 3B and 1B. Vaz seems like the obvious choice, but it's extremely hard getting a good catcher. Dalbec is one of our few low cost-high upside starters. How do we replace or move Devers and Bogey to new positions without losing fans or Bogey? Improving our D is very complicated, but I agree- very necessary.

Without him setting up, we'll have no closing situations.

You attacked just about every Sox player, coach and manager, ceaselessly. I defended them like I think a true fan should, at least most of the time. You went way overboard. Yes, I pushed some buttons and condescended. I even threw in a little passive aggressiveness. I'm not perfect and am no angel. There's no "but" coming. I own my mistakes and admit to as many as I can and know about. I'm sorry for lashing out at you and others. Now, I'll throw in some condescension: I hope some of you take great solace in being right about the Sox ending, this year.

Speaking of COVID, my school is swamped with cases. We had 12 out of 92 teachers out, Monday. (9 without subs, as wants low sub pay during a pandemic?) So I volunteered to cover a class during my conference period, and then I got sick Monday night. I missed today and thought maybe I had Covid. Low grade fever, chills, whole body ached and then severe congestion. (Maybe that's why I've been grumpy... LOL) I got tested today; no Covid! I'm on antibiotics. I was vaccined back in Jan & Feb. I wear a mask everywhere with people. Now, I have a cough and some aches with PND, but feel a bit better.

I used to be a betting man, and until this Covid thing hit, I'd have bet we make the playoffs due to OAK's very tough remaining schedule. Now, I would not bet on the Sox. Sale & Schwarbs can only do so much.

Thumbs up.

A's won 9-3 vs DET. Yanks 0-0 in LAA in the 4th. HOU @ SEA. The A's are now tied in the loss column with us and 1 down overall. SEA is 4 down. The Jays 4.5 down. We're still just 2.5 behind the Yanks, as of this minute.