moonslav59

None of us are experts at this game, but what is the blind spot on Brasier and Ort? I get that every team has mop-up men in the 12-13 slots on their staff, but this is beyond absurd.

Good to see Wong and Arroyo go over the Mendoza line.

...and E Valdez, too.

I can see why so many don't feel any or feel very little hope. We've shown a little bit of fight in some comeback wins, and the offense and pen have looked encouraging, but the rotation is killing any glimmer of light, so far. There is nothing to say about the rotation that can look optimistic, but I just feel like there is just no way these guys are this bad and will continue being this bad over the next 5 months. Yes, we have 5 months to go. If I end up being wrong, it won't be the first time, but I just can't see it. The Whitlock injury scares the bejesus out of me. To me, he was my main hope. The Mata-Walter-Murphy brigade is looking like just a fairytale. To think Crawford and Wink are doing this well, and we still have a staff looking this badly, says a lot about rest of the pitchers able to go 2+ innings. Nobody seems to be grabbing the stopper role. I'm not sure any starter has put together two straight good starts, let alone two great ones. We need a few starters to begin doing that, and real soon, or else this season will quickly slip away, like 2022.

We are turning Cleveland into a .500+ team. We've last 3 in a row (to PIT) and 4 in a row (to TBR,) but have yet to win more than 3 in a row (done twice.) 2 more v CLE 4 w TOR 3 @ PHI 2 @ ATL 3 v STL 3 v SEA 3 @ SDP then... 3 @ LAA 3 @ AZ 3 v CIN then back to tough opps... 4 v TBR 3@ CLE 3@ NYY Our schedule is not looking much easier, coming up:

This was the winter the wallet was opened, but I guess the context included losing the salaries of Boegy, Nate, JD and others. I expected more spent on the rotation-either money or via trade, but it looks like they placed all their beans on offense, the pen and hopes that 4 of the 6 or 7 SP'ers would come through. The extreme high prices for the best of the best FAs hampered our haul, to some extent, but Bloom was given enough to make a difference. He chose to spend just $14M on the rotation- Kluber and Paxton taking his option. That's on him. It's unfortunate we lost Duvall. The loss of Story was more predictable, but still a shame. He seemed to miscalculate Mondesi's recovery time and Kike's defensive skills at SS. Despite the injuries to Martin, Joely and Mills, he seems to have done well on constructing a reliable pen. He's been all over the map on choosing D over O, then O over D- each to an extreme. That is puzzling, to say the least. It's still only April. Kike seems to be waking up. Duran has been a pleasant surprise, and his new approach seems to indicate this may not be a fluke. (Sure, he will come down to earth, but maybe not .650. Turner and Yoshida are looking like good signings, and Verdugo is looking as good as he has ever looked. Again, these are all offense, except for the pen. McGuire and Wong seem to be handling the catcher slot well, unless you want to blame them (McGuire, mainly) for the rotation's woes. The 1B, 2B and SS positions have been major issues, so far, but all is not lost at those 3 slots. I certainly don't feel as optimistic about our chances as I did in March or after winning the first series of the season, but I am pretty far from giving up all hope. Our schedule will get easier. We will get some injured players back and move some low performing players off the 26 by attrition. Maybe some more get hurt, but maybe not. These other teams ahead of us have some major issues, too.

Kike has his .857 since April 11th and had the 27th off. (.874 last 10 games) Is he hurt, of is this just Cora doing his over-resting thingy?

No, we cannot win with a 6.44 rotation, but I'm not convinced, after just 27 starts, that will continue. None of our starters have been this bad over their whole careers. Many have not had 4 start bad stretches, like this, of if they have, maybe once or twice, before bouncing back. I can understand thinking things won't change. We seem to have found a groove of win one-lose one that we can't get out of. I'm feeling gloomy, too. It's still April, though. Thinking like this in May is pushing it. I thought I was bad giving up on the 2022 Sox in early July.

I find it hard to think it can get uglier than 6.44, but I suppose it can. I've not given up hope that 2-3 from Kluber, Sale, Whitlock and yes even Paxton can improve enough to join Houck, Pivetta and maybe Bello/Crawford to get the rotation to a 4.50 ERA from May 1 to the end. If we do that, we should make the playoffs with this offense, and the promises of comebacks by Story, Duvall and Mondesi, to a lesser extent.

He struggled in his first few starts, last year, too, which is understandable for any young pitcher. 10.55 ERA after first 3 starts of 2022 (12 IP) 3.18 ERA over last 10 games (including 8 starts) 45.1 IP We don't know if history will repeat itself, but the kid deserves a look. We should also remember, he missed almost all of ST'ing and part of the April.

After watching the bumblings at 1B, last year, I do appreciate a 1Bman that can actually catch the ball and filed a routine grounder, too. I may have been one of the first to start questioning whether Casas needs to be platooned or sent down to "work things out" (not to learn anything else,) but it is still very early in the season. Here just a few recent examples of why giving up so early is a SUSPECT strategy: Renfroe (had worse numbers than Casas has now, and the same guy suspecting Casas has still not stopped crying about us trading Renroe away.) .485 on April 30th (19 games and 68 PAs) .859 May 1st>>> (504 PAs) Kike 2021 (remember everyone screaming about him leading off?) .650 over first 222 PAs .874 last 363 PAs, including a .372 OBP and then a one man show playoffs Dalbec 2021: .656 first 314 PAs 1.114 over his last 139 PAs (Also, .558 after 108 PAs and then .867 over last 345 PAs) Casas 2022: .582 over his first 16 games (53 PAs) 1.008 over his last 11 games (42 PAs) It's a good think Cora doesn't listen to me and others, here.

That swap would be very suspect, too.

I do not have the faith in Dalbec I once had. His career stats are front-end loaded. I've not given up on him, either, but no, I do not see him as a current and viable option for the Sox at 1B, should Casas earn a demotion. Since virtually no trades are made in May and early June, our best option is Turner at 1B and some sort of platoon at DH- maybe Valdez/Dalbec or Valdez/Refsnyder. Some tiny sample sizes here: v R 1.000 Valdez (has hit righties very well in the minors) v L 1.167 Dalbec (.755 in 2022) .808 Refsnyder (1.005 in 2022) This looks way more promising than Casas, so far.

I hope you continuing pessimism subsides, soon, but it is getting harder and harder to find a silver lining. We have played more .500> teams than anyone else, so maybe when we start playing worse teams, we can cheer up, a bit.

Certainly, Crawford could start. I'm not sure about messing with Winckowski's success as a 2 inning guy, but we can't go much longer, as is. The SP'er depth on the farm has not stepped it up (Mata, Walter and Murphy have looked unimpressive in AAA.) Paxton is looking more and more like a non-factor, but maybe time will change that. (I'm not hopeful, there.) How many more starts do these guys get, before we think about a change? Kluber looked okay in 2 of his 5 starts, and did not look bad in another, where Bleier allowed 2 IRs to score. He will likely get several more starts. Sale is hard to figure. Sometimes command is the last thing a pitcher recovers, after a long time away from pitching, but how many more starts can we wait and wait? Could using him in the pen, help him regain? Whitlock on the IL hurts like hell, even though he was not doing all that well. Pivetta is not doing what I hoped he could do. I don't see him being demoted from the rotation ahead of these others, though. Bello needs to shine, and soon! We've gone way too long on addressing rotation upgrades. We've kept adding #3's and #4's hoping they'd pitch like #2's. You get what you pay for, and we are seeing it, now.

It is still very early in the season, but let's take a look at how our top prospects are doing and how some lower ones seem to be making an early push up the rankings. (sox prospects.com's rankins) 1, Mayer .785 A+ 2. Casas .576 MLB 3. Bleis .691 A- 4. Rafaela .770 AA 5. Mata 5.12 ERA AAA 6. Yorke .948 AA 7. Romero on IL with back issues 8. Perales 10.29 ERA 9. Walter 4.19 ERA 10. Paulino .538 A+ All in all, except for Yorke, the rest have not been very impressive, to say the least. Some promising starts: 12. Drohan 0.78 ERA AA 15. EValdez .858 MLB 16. E R-C 1.08 ERA A- 18. Jordan .851 A+ 19. Hickey .969 A+ 24. Abreu .855 AAA 25. Guerrero 2.57 ERA AA 26. Hamilton .911 AAA 30. Meidroth .855 A+

The leashes have to be getting shorter and shorter on some of these guys. Crawford is looking like he deserves another chance at the rotation, and although I hate messing with Wink, maybe he deserves a chance, too. Maybe we need to shake the line-up a little, too. Duran, Kike, Dugo and Turner seem to be doing better. Yoshida is coming around, and even Valdez is looking like he should get a longer and more extensive look. Too bad he has no position. I'm not advocating major shake-ups or demotions, but how long will the players doing the best be kept on the bench? Leaders in OPS (rank in PAs) 1.544 Duvall (on IL) 13th 1.054 Duran 12 .857 Valdez 16 .856 Devers 3 .843 Dugo 1 .831 Yoshida 5 .811 McGuire 11 .770 Turner 2 .705 Kike 4 .662 Ref 9 .590 Casas 6 .528 Wong 8 .515 Chang 10 .458 Arroyo 7 Best OPS Against and PAs Against Ranking: .392 Jansen 14th (understandable as the closer) .519 Wink 6th .627 Crawford 5th .710 Houck 1st .734 Schreiber 10th .737 Bleier 11th .738 Brasier 9th .755 Martin 15th (IL) .789 Pivetta 4th .842 Kluber 3rd .938 Sale 2nd .944 Whitlock 7th .960 Ort 8th 1.072 Bello 12th It's understandable guys like Sale, Kluber, Pivetta and Whitlock have the most IP, but how much longer do we keep pitching our worst performers the most?

It's very hard to acquire any player from April to early June and after the deadline is against the rules, if it's a good player. I thought that was a given, except for the one poster who kept saying, over and over, that Bloom should have acquired a 1Bman, last May. Maybe saying a dime a dozen is hyperbole, but to me, it's easier to find a decent 1Bman than just about any other position. The one you get may not work out, but that happens with many acquisitions.

DH platoon players are a nickel a dozen!

Thanks. I wonder who will end up doing better.

The Sea Dog pitchers have been on fire, pretty much all year. No wonder they are 13-5. Here are all the pitchers with 7.1+ IP and their OPS Against: .311 Whitlock .374 Drohan 26:4 K:BB .388 Sharp .401 Nail .408 Van Belle .448 Denlinger (7.1 IP German trade, 11:1 K:BB) .486 Miller 12:2 .519 Webb .526 Olds .558 Gomez 14:4 .622 Arias .663 Guerrero Only one pitcher above .664! .840 Liu

I'm not sure why, and I'm assuming you disagree that finding and acquiring a decent 1Bman is easier than a SP, SS, CF'er, C, 2Bman... Maybe because a lot of aging players end up at 1B? Toronto paid us to take Pearce. Yes, they got Espinal, who has worked out okay. Millar, as I believe was about to go play in Japan, when we talked him into signing with us for chump change. I'm not big on names of players from other teams, but I seem to remember that guy Chio was traded for for not much, as was Carlos Santana, last year. Maybe you can find guys like them at every position, and I am wrong, but they seem easier to come by, to me. Try getting a decent SP, closer, SS....

1Bmen are not "a dime a dozen" in April-May. There are none, at any cost. Hopefully, by the deadline, we won't need a 1Bman, but if we do, we should be able to add a decent hitting 1B at minimal cost. Whether he works out or not is up for grabs. Pearce did in '18, Shaw did in '21, but Hosmer did not in '22. My point was, and still is, when you compare the comp package need to acquire a 1Bman vs just about every other position, it is way cheaper. "Pennies on the dollar."

ALE Teams vs the rest of MLB (vs all non ALE teams) 16-3 TBR 13-3 BAL 12-7 TOR 10-6 BOS 12-8 NYY ALE vs .500> Teams 6-4 TBR (10 gms) 7-5 TOR (12 games) 11-9 NYY (20 games) 6-6 BAL (12 games) 10-13 BOS (23 games)

What the player does afterwards can be one criteria, but then think about the 2021 Travis Shaw, the 2018 Steve Pearce, the 2003 and 2004 Kevin Millar.