moonslav59

Some are saying the same about Snell or Monty for 7 years. Maybe Gray takes a 4 year deal, but I doubt it. The BB/9 numbers for Snell scare the bejesus out of me. I kinda like this priority order: 1. Yamo 7-11 yrs 2. Monty 6-7 yrs 3. Gray 4-5 yrs 4. Snell 6-7 yrs Then a big drop: (#3-4 SP'ers) 5. Imanaga 3-5 yrs? 6. ERod 5-6 yrs 7. Lugo 3-4 yrs 8. Wacha 2-3 yrs (#4 starters- I'm not that interested, but if it improves the pen by moving Crawford or Houck there, maybe it's worth it) 9. Y Rod (27 yr old from Cuba) 3-4 yrs (RP or SP?) 10. Stroman 2-3 yrs 11. Giolito 2-3 yrs 12. Flaherty 2-3 yrs 13. Clevinger 2 yrs 14. Mahle 2 yrs 15. Paxton 1 yr (#5s- not the way I like to "improve" the rotation) 16. Lorenzen 2 yrs 17. Montas 1 yr 18. Severino 1 yr 19. Maeda 2 yrs The Wild Cards: 1A. Ohtani 6+ ys (Not interested in paying large for a DH & injured pitcher) 2A. Clayton Kershaw 1 ys (Will likely sign with LAD) 2B. Trevor Bauer 1-2 yrs (I might give him a try.) 4A. Julio Urias (Good enough to be a top 5 SP signing, but he may end up in jail: PASS!)

That's given. I was responding to the point about Brez's willingness to get so bold right out of the gate- or not.

I like the "There was no point..." comment.

Agreed, but first Brez is the one that would have to bring the deal to them and push for it- or not.

Signing Yamo would come down to trusting the scouts, the radar guns and your own instincts. I think Brez will make 1-2 "gutsy moves," this winter. How gutsy is the question. I'm thinking one big trade of prospects that are not "his type" and one major signing, which to me is anyone as good or better than Monty.

My dream is Yamo, Monty & Lugo, but this is the realistic thread. Both Monty & Gray are probably not realistic. Maybe Monty & Lugo are the best we can hope for.

I think we have a legit top 5 chance, depending on JH's willingness to fork it over. A lot will depend on what Brez & the scouts think, if JH gives the green light. I think he is worth the hefty gamble.

Breslow is apparently focusing on hard throwing pitchers. Here is a look at the FB velocities of our prospects, according to soxprospects.com: 7. Perales 94-96 (tops at 99) 9. Wikelman 94-96 (97) 15. Drohan 91-93 (96) 20. Monegro 93-95 (96) 23. Dobbins 92-95 (97) 24. E R-C 91-93 (95) 25. Guerrero 96-98 (100) RP 26. Bastardo 93-95 (97) 27. Mata 95-97 (99) Out of options 28. Hoppe 96-99 (100) RP 31. Fernandez 96-98 (100) RP 32. Walter 89-93 (94) 33. Troye 93-95 (98) RP 34. Rogers 91-94 (96) 36. Gambrell 91-94 (96) 38. Penrod 92-94 (96) 39. Paez 89-91 (92) 44. I Coffey 88-90 (91) 46. Cepeda 95-96 (98) RP 47. Sena 94-97 (98) RP 49. Olivarez 93-97 (100) RP 52. Zeferjahn 95-97 (98) RP 54. Liu 93-95 (98) RP 55. Soto TBD 56. Early Low 90's 58. Cohen TBD 59. Mullins 90-94 RP 60. Song 89-92 (93) Top Velocity for SP'ers (as of now) 99 Mata 95-97 (out of options- may make pen) 99 Perales 94-96 97 Wikelman 94-96 97 Bastardo 93-95 97 Dobbins 92-95 96 Drohan, Rogers, Gambrell, Penrod

SNY's Andy Martino reports that Yamo's plan on choosing a team to sign with may be like this: 1. The first stage is a round of phone calls and Zoom meetings with all of the interested teams. 2. Yamamoto is then expected to arrive in the United States for a series of in-person meetings and further negotiations with however many finalists make this second and presumably last stage of talks. The timeline for these in-person sitdowns is after baseball’s Winter Meetings (December 4-7), which will allow teams a better sense of the pitching market if some other top hurlers are signed or traded in the interim, and allows Yamamoto’s camp that same knowledge as well as perhaps extra negotiating leverage, if remaining suitors are even more desperate for pitching. Though Yamamoto’s posting window extends until January 4, it “is not expected to require that much time” for the right-hander to decide on a contract. It would tentatively seem like he might have his decision made sometime between mid-December and Christmas Day. Martino also adds a clarification to a statement made by Wolfe earlier in the week, as the agent told Japanese media during a conference call that his client would have no problem playing with another Japanese player. Due to a translation error, this was incorrectly interpreted as Wolfe saying that Yamamoto was prioritizing teams that already had at least one Japanese player on the roster, which isn’t the case.

MLBTR reports... Right-hander Yariel Rodriguez held a private workout today, per reporter Francys Romero. Romero adds that the Red Sox and Padres were the two teams with representatives in attendance to watch the righty, who threw two innings during the workout. Rodriguez, 27 in March, was declared a free agent by MLB earlier this month after he was granted his release by the NPB’s Chunichi Dragons back in October. Rodriguez spent three seasons pitching out of the bullpen for the Dragons, racking up a 3.03 ERA with a 25.4% strikeout rate in 175 1/3 innings during that time. His 2022 campaign with the Dragons was particularly impressive as he dominated to the tune of a microscopic 1.15 ERA in 54 2/3 frames, with a 27.5% strikeout rate against an 8.3% walk rate. After his dominant work in Japan, Rodriguez suited up as a starting pitcher for his home country of Cuba during the World Baseball Classic, during which he struck out ten while allowing two runs on five hits and six walks in 7 1/3 innings of work between his two appearances. Following his appearances in the WBC back in March, Rodriguez sat out the remainder of the 2023 campaign as the Dragons placed him on the restricted list prior to granting the righty his release last month. Public evaluations of Rodriguez are few and far between thanks to the unusual nature of his free agency, but given his unusual youth for a free agent and dominant numbers overseas, it’s easy to see why teams in need of pitching help would be interested in his services, particularly if they believe he can start in the majors. MLBTR ranked Rodriguez #28 on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list earlier this month, projecting him for a four-year, $32MM contract. Earlier this offseason, Romero relayed a list of ten teams that had shown interest in Rodriguez that included neither Boston nor San Diego, while Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times indicated that the Rays were among fifteen teams that were represented at a workout held by Rodriguez last month. It’s unclear what level of interest the clubs connected to Rodriguez thusfar this offseason have in the right-hander, though it’s easy to see how the Red Sox and Padres match up as potential fits. Boston has made it clear that additional starting pitching help is a priority for the club this offseason, including the possibility of pairing a top-of-the-market arm with a second, more affordable piece. Rodriguez could make plenty of sense as a secondary acquisition for Boston. Young arms like Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Kutter Crawford have all shown an ability to pitch both in the rotation and out of the bullpen, helping to ease the risk involved in signing an arm like Rodriguez, who hasn’t pitched regularly out of the rotation in professional games since 2019.

ND should have ran Estime more, this year. Today: 25 rushes 238 yards 4 TDs

Yup. Forgot about Conference Championship game.

At least ALA can't make the playoffs. I'm hoping WSH St beats WSH. It's tied, late.

Duquette really laid the groundwork for Epstein, well. He took over a team that went 73-89 in '92 and 80-82 in '93. It took a few years to get the team to 92 wins in 1998, but the team did go 86-58 in '95 for a .557 win%. The 2001 team was 82-79, but the foundation handed over to Mike Port included: 2001 Red Sox OPS 1.014 Manny .881 Nixon .859 VTek .859 Daubach .822 Nomar .786 Bichette .761 Carl Everett .735 O'Leary .716 Offerman + Hatteberg, Hillenbrand, Stynes, D Lewis, Merloni, Valantin Pitchers: Pedro Lowe Nomo Wake R Arroyo Castillo, Cone, Ohka, Garces, Fossum, Kim Prospects: Lester, Youk, HRam, Shoppach, David Murphy, Freddy Sanchez, Anibal Sanchez, Delcarmen, Jorge de la Rosa and K Gabbard

Top Sox Drafted/IFA & Signed fWARs since 2003: 58.5 Betts 46.2 Lester 44.5 Pedey 41.0 HRam 38.6 Bogey 36.1 Rizzo 31.2 An Sanchez 30.2 Youkilis 30.1 Ellsbury 21.2 Devers 20.7 Schilling 19.9 Reddick 19.8 Lowrie With Sox Only: fWAR drafted or IFA signed after 2012 21.2 Devers 8.5 Beni 5.7 Nava 5.4 Ellsbury 4.6 Houck 2.9 Crawford 2.9 Bello 2.5 Iggy 2.1 Casas 1.7 J Taylor 1.6 Middlebrooks, Duran 1.5 TShaw

We don't know the total value of Ben, DD and Bloom's drafts, yet. Many of Ben's are on other teams, but not jumping out at us in high values. DD has some good players. Bloom's are largely still in the minors. Also, IFAs do not count.

When we are talking 5-7 year deals, I'm not sure how much losing a draft pick does to projected value. I believe it is NOT the first round pick lost.

For people who poo-poo the Sox draft strategy, I did find this: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2019/06/03/a-team-by-team-look-at-baseballs-draft-from-1996-2018/39539549/ 1996-2018 drafts: BOSTON RED SOX Total WAR for all drafted players: 697 (MLB rank: 1st) Total WAR for drafted players who signed: 483.9 (rank: 2nd) Total WAR for drafted players who did not sign: 213.1 Impact players (10 WAR or more) drafted: 25 (rank: 1st) Impact players drafted and signed: 16 (rank: tie-2nd) Most recent impact player drafted and signed: Mookie Betts, 2011, fifth round (37.7 WAR); Jackie Bradley Jr., 2011, first round, pick No. 40 (12.3 WAR); Travis Shaw, 2011, ninth round (10.8 WAR) Lowest pick for impact player drafted and signed: David Eckstein, 1997, 19th round, pick No. 581 (20.9 WAR) Best draft class, based on total WAR (impact players listed): 2005, 102.8 WAR (Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie, Charlie Blackmon, Jason Castro) Best draft class, counting signed players only: 2005, 65.3 WAR (Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie) Highest pick: Trey Ball, 2013; Andrew Benintendi, 2015 (pick No. 7) Best player drafted and signed, based on career WAR: Dustin Pedroia, 2004, second round (51.7 WAR) Best player drafted who did not sign: Mark Teixeira, 1998, ninth round (51.8 WAR) Best player drafted and signed from first round: Jacoby Ellsbury, 2005, pick No. 23 (31.1 WAR) Details: The Red Sox have been excellent in the draft and have the championships to show for it. Their 2005 class included an incredible five impact players, three of which signed. Six years later, they drafted and signed three more. Boston's title teams have been populated with plenty of standouts originally drafted by the team: Pedroia, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Betts, Bradley, Kevin Youkilis, Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester . the list is an impressive one. The Red Sox have also lost a lot of solid players in the form of unsigned picks. They could afford to. 2010-2019: 1st Rd Picks ONLY value: (about middle of the pack) All draft picks 2011-2017: (Sox #1:) https://brewerfanatic.com/forums/topic/32807-total-war-by-draft-picks-since-2011/ Values by draft slots: 2000-2010: https://community.fangraphs.com/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/

I'm surprised nobody has done and published it.

lol

Gray and Snell YES Monty No. He was traded midseason. Yamo NO Imanaga NO ERod I think NO (second time through free agency)

I agree. I am also not so sure he won't have some down years, right off the bat. He was non tendered by the Dodgers. He's not all that consistent. fWARs: 3.9 as rookie in '17 3.5 in '18 7.8 in '19 3.5 Projected for '20 -1.0 in '21 1.8 in '22 4.1 in '23

I did not see any breakdown by position drafted.

I do not know an easy way to see where players were drafted, and comparing the two lists looks too daunting. to even me.

They don't do it by highest posting fee offered, anymore. The posting fee is fixed. Yamo chooses who to sign with- most likely the highest or near highest bidder. Many Asian pitchers prefer to pitch on the left coast, due to travel times going home, but who knows with Yamo.