moonslav59

Does it matter? Nobody believes him, anyway.

How did I "dramatically short-change Urias as a hitter"?

I think I need a refresher course on job titles and their pecking order.

Devers getting a B+ must be based on expectations.

No major disagreements on any of the 3 report cards listed for 2023.

Are we looking for a GM or CBO or both? I thought we are just looking for a GM.

It's my understanding that the "front office" staff kept are all higher-ranked than the GM. The GM does not pick them. Only Cora might create an issue.

You think saying "Could he hit .250 27 90" is short-changing him? I thought you said, at one time, he might not even be offered arb.

Here is an early breakdown of our returning everyday players. I will do the pitching, later. I tried to stay realistic and temper my optimism, and also attempted to give a window of expectation between the good and not so good possible outcomes. I did not do rookies with too few PAs in 2023. Duran: perhaps no player is harder to project than Jarren. He’s been up and down, mostly up in the minors. He’s changed his hitting approach more times than years in the system. His defense was so bad at 2B, they moved him to the OF, where he was horrific, until some sort of miraculous event occurred before 2023, and he actually looked like he was only half bad. That being said, he still has a ways to go on D to be a capable CF’er. I’d prefer he be our LF’er in 2024- perhaps platooning with Refsnyder. Optimistic view: He repeats his 2023 season over 550 PAs and maybe even improves upon it. If he plays FT and leads off, he could get double his PAs of 2023 and end up with this line: .295 16 80 (.828 OPS) with 48 SBs and 4 CS. Perhaps, the best we can expect would be .300 18 90 with 50+ SBs and a .840 OPS. Pessimistic view: He reverts to his old self as a sub .700 hitter who is weak on D. He could add value as a PR, if he does well enough with the bat and D to stay on the 26. Verdugo: might be the easiest to project. He’s been pretty steady with his numbers. His D looked way better in 2023 than any other season, but his OPS has been between .732 and .777 since becoming a FT’er in 2021. (He was .844 in 2020 as a FT’er in a short season.) His splits indicate he may b est be used in a long side platoon. Career: .807 vs RHPs/ .665 v LHPs (.609 in ’23.) Optimistic view: He can hit like he did from 2019-2020: .300 20 65 projected to 650 with an .827 OPS. Realistically, maybe his high end is .800 to .820. Good D. Pessimistic view: He could do worse than his .732 OPS in 2022- maybe somewhere near .700 to .725 with okay D. Refsnyder: has been our top OPS guy vs LHPs since 2022. It’s not really even close. His D is subpar. He has a .604 career OPD vs RHPs, so should probably never start vs one, unless it’s an emergency. Optimistic view: He keeps doing very well vs LHPs as a platoon in LH or possible some as a DH or in RF in some parks. Pessimistic view: He continues struggling, like he did to end the 2023 season, even vs lefties. He may end up traded or DFA’d, even if we don’t add an OF RHB like Duvall. With Rafaela and Abreu pushing for playing time in the OF, Ref could be the odd man out. Devers: has been pretty steady, except on D. He’s been between .851 and .890 over the last 3 years. It’s a bit worrisome he has not come close to his .916 OPS in 2019 at age 22, but his OPS+ has been: 132, 134, 141 and 126 the last 4 full seasons (2020’s 107 left out.) Optimistic view: He is in peak prime years, now. I think it is reasonable to think he can hit over .900, again. Maybe 40 HRs and 120 + RBI. Perhaps he could play D, like he has in stretches shown in previous seasons. Pessimistic view: He hits under .850 and continues his poor defense. Casas: seems to have the most upside of any FT players returning from the 2023 season. His approach is great. He is very patient hitter, who seemed to greatly improve as the season unfolded. As a rookie, I think the umps were tough on him early on, with balls and stikes calls. He ended up at .856, but finished the season at .974 in his last 322 PAs. Optimistic view: He continues at the rate he finished the year, he’d be at .307 36 100. I’m not sure he can do better than that, but that’s pretty damn good. Pessimistic view: Maybe he ends up at .275 25 75 with a .825 OPS. Story: is another tough nut to crack. The injury has taken its toll on his recent numbers and may have even affected his numbers during is last year with COL. He hasn’t lost a thing on D, except maybe some arm strength and a higher risk of re-injury. He turns 31, soon, so an optimistic view should probably not be to expect to repeat what he did with COL, even after park adjustments. Optimistic view: He had a .909 OPS from 2018-2020 and an OPS+ of 123 (which adjusts for park influence.) He’s been at .744, the last 3 seasons, combined and .685 with BOS in 564 PAs. My guess at a high end but reasonable expectation might be .250 25 95 (.825-.850 OPS w 20+ SBs) Pessimistic view: Some might say under his .685 OPS with the Sox, as he is only getting older, but I don’t think so. I’m setting the floor at .240 20 75 (with a .750 OPS and 15+ SBs) Wong: might be close to Duran in predictability for 2024. Of course, catcher defense and how they help or hinder the staff they catch is one of baseball’s most difficult skills to identify and quantify, but it seems he can continue to improve in that area. His offense is hard to know. Optimistic view: He improves on D, especially framing and blocking. He’s already excellent on keeping the opponent’s running game in check. His offense showed some real promise in 2023. He reached his highest OPS of the season in mid September (.721 on 9/11,) but finished the season at a .198 Ops and a final .673 number. I would think his high might be over .725. Pessimistic view: He ends up being a .650 to .675 batter with issues framing and blocking on D. McGuire: has been in the bigs long enough to have an idea of what to expect. Apparently, he was a good defensive catcher, when we got him, but that became a question in 2023. He had a career .687 OPS before Boston and jumped to .740 with the Sox. However, he was at .688 in 2024. Optimistic view: I don’t think over .725 is unreasonable. Good D, but not great. Pessimist view: He hits around .670-.680 and does not improve on decent D. Urias: it’s not even a certainty we allow him to go to arb or sign him pre-arb. He did not really distinguish himself after we acquired him at the deadline, or before hand prior to the trade in 2023. His 2021-2022 numbers do offer some promise. Optimistic view: He repeats his 2021 season with 650 PAs: .249 25 80. Perhaps just repeating his 2021-2022 average over 650 PAs would also be optimistic: .244 24 75. He has a career dWAR of +2.1, which is about +0.7 per 150 games. Could he hit .250 27 90? Pessimist view: He stays like he was in 2023-m about .200 10 40. Yuck! Reyes: did pretty well with us over 64 games, but had never really looked this good since his rookie year in 2018, where he only had 63 PAs. He’s okay on D but nothing great. Optimistic view: He repeats his line with Boston over 650 PAs: .287 6 60 with 21 SBs and a .716 OPS. Pessimistic view: He does worse than his line before Boston: .238 13 30 with a .667 OPS.

True, but that $32M signing bonus was paid, plus I think there was a big "posting fee" we had to pay. $32M is what we paid Jansen for 2 years, and he made the list.

Bell said "qualified people." The skeletons in your closet should be left there.

I'm not so sure his philosophy is as "ever-changing" as it looks. He may view building championship teams as cycles. He hires people good at building up a foundation by building up the farm (and not trading top prospects,( like Ben & Bloom,) then he hires guys that are good at putting a solid foundation team over the top, with precise spending and trades (DD.) Theo was the one guy who seemed to be pretty good at both tasks at hand, and lasted the longest, but he, too, had some cycle years- ups and downs. He did spend a lot, pretty evenly, but there were a few dipd and splurges, here and there. He also seemed to spread out his mega prospect trades and had a more balanced appoach.

We tried to warn you he was a big injury risk, and you downplayed it and deflected that Paxton was more of an injury risk.

And, the mighty Martin Perez, twice.

Yes, when he was hurt during the season, and his team missed the big stage.

The media gives the fans what they want. In your case: red meat.

So, basically, Boston has more fans like you who make life miserable for players in a funk than LA does.

So, maybe/probably two. Man, it's the end of the world as we know it!

Okay. If true, we are up to one. Any more?

Good one. I'm sure more know. You forgot to mention JH's right-handed man, who is "in" on everything now.

Who knows why? The fact is he sucked for us at SS. Mondesi babied his injury, all year and blew that hope of depth. Chang got hurt. Reyes was too little, too late, and was inexplicably on the bench or at 2B for too long. Bell is right: many were to blame, including last but not least, Kike, himself.

How could anyone "construct" the 2020 team into anything above "poorly?" Bloom's major additions to the 2021 team largely failed (Richards, Perez, Marwin, Santana. Only Renfroe looked like a great score.) It was the return of ERod and other factors that led to its success, like ERod's return, a great season from Nate and even guys like Dalbec and Barnes coming through. On paper, 2021 looked very similar to 2022. Bloom's "roster construction," IMO looked better, on paper pre-2022 than pre-2021.

Agreed. My point was about Kike's turn around with LAD and his time at SS before 2023. It was tongue and cheek.

Who was a better hire?

I do, too. He may have a learning curve, but I do feel better about our future than I have in a long time.