moonslav59

It also supports the idea of him being a great long relief pitcher who can come into a game in the first or second inning, if needed, and save the pen from needing to use 4-5 pitchers. I've said I'm fine with Crawford over Houck as the #4 or 5 guy. Preferring Houck has more to do with his success facing the first 18 batters than anything bad about Kutter.

I'm clearly saying it is what I want and not what is going to happen. I'd like us to add 2 SP'ers and doubt we add even one.

They cloned him. This new technology is taking over sports!

To me, this is a damn good pen. Call me a homer, but I believe it is: Jansen Closer Martin Set-up (PT Closer) Winckowski Set-up Schreiber Set-up Whitlock Mid man Crawford Long man Houck Long man Bernardino/Slaten/Mata/Campbell/Criswell/Weissert/Kelly... 8th man (We'd need two more starters to make this happen.)

David Robertson to TEX for $11-12M/1.

I think we may have already ruined Whit by starting him. I'd prefer to just keep at least Whit and Wink in the pen that try to replace one who moves to the rotation. I don't think Wood or Lauer will cost much. To me, even using Craw and Houck in the rotation is misusing players. We all screamed at Bloom for not signing Andrus and then Cora for continuing to play Kike out of position. Now, we are suggesting moving players out of positions they belong and into the unknown?

It saddens me to think this is the best we can hope for, but I do think any of these plans are better than doing nothing and forcing some very good pen arms into the rotation. Certainly Giolito has had better years, recently than these three, but in some ways, they are similar. We are being asked to think 2023 is not who these guys really are. 2021-2022 2023 (or other sample sizes): Gio: '21-'22: 61 GS 340 IP 4.18 ERA/3.92 FIP/1.261 WHIP 2023: 33 GS 184 IP 4.88 ERA/5.27 FIP/ 1.313 WHIP Clevinger: '17-'19: 74 GS 448 IP 2.96 ERA/3.32 FIP/ 1.153 WHIP '20-'22: 30 GS 156 IP 3.98 ERA/4.75 FIP/1.186 WHIP 2023: 24 GS 131 IP 3.77 ERA/ 4.28 FIP/ 1.226 WHIP Lauer: '21-'22: 49 GS 277 IP 3.47 ERA/4.30 FIP/1.186 WHIP 2023: 9 GS 47 IP 6.56 ERA/ 7.41 FIP/ 1.671 WHIP A Wood: '17-'18: 52 GS 304 IP 3.20 ERA/ 3.43 FIP/ 1.132 WHIP 2021: 26 GS 139 IP 3.83 ERA/ 3.48 FIP/ 1.183 WHIP 2023: 12 GS 98 IP 4.33 ERA/ 4.47 FIP/ 1.433 WHIP (17 RP games)

I really hope we add two more SP'ers, but I realize that it is just hope. We may not even add one, but I have much more faith we do add one- even if it is a $5-10M/1 type starter, again. If we can get 140 IP from the addition, that would mean less time in the rotation needed from our "swingmen." 1. Bello (really a number 3) 2. Giolito (really a number 3) 3. ______ (addition) 4. Pivetta (IMO, he's a lock for a rotation slot, unless he gets hurt.) Then, I stack up the rest or the rotation like this, along with the depth chart: 5. Houck (yank him after 18 batters) 6. Crawford (fine with swapping him with Houck at #5) 7. The best from Max Castillo, Richard Fitts, Brandon Walter, Richard Fitts or Chris Murphy from AAA rather than Whitlock or Wink 8. Whitlock (or another one from #7) 9. Winckowski (I don't see any advantage of moving him from the role he grew into in 2023.) 10. Others from the #7 list (More: Wikelman or Perales, if the impress, greatly.)

Houck going 18 batters is not far from the league average and likely better than Wink & Whitlock can do. To me, Pivetta should be the first choice. Crawford and Houck are close, and I'd like both in the pen, but I'd pick Houck. 1st, 2nd & 3rd PA as SP ONLY OPS Against .575>.709>.957 Houck .656>.770>1.069 Crawford .760>.692>1.122 Whitlock .723>.905>.957 Winckowski (15 GS career) Pitch 1-25, 26-50, 51-75, 76-100 as SP & RP .519>.656>.844>.836 Houck .671>.742>.747>.845 Crawford .685>.600>.823>.969 Whitlock .730>.808>.920>.965 Winckowski

You gave up on Alex Wood?

Joc Pederson close to signing with AZ.

If the price drops a whole lot on some good pitcher, I could see top brass changing stride, yet again. I won't predict it or expect it, but who knows with these clowns?

I'd rather we sign these two than nobody or just one. I do think they both have a better chance at doing well starting and going 140+ IP than Houck, Crawford or Whitlock (not Pivetta.) I think our pen gets way better with 2-3 of those 3 in the pen. We'd have really good pen depth, something we saw hurt us, last year. The pen does better when not taxed. Maybe we could even trade a pen arm, if we get bottlenecked. Lauer pitched 277 Innings from '21-'22. He had a 3.47 ERA and a 4.30 FIP over that time. Best of all, he might fit JH's tight-fisted budget. Another shot in the dark could be Alex Wood. 269 IP from '21-'22 4.44 ERA but a 3.62 FIP. Clevinger probably offers the best hope, but he might be too over-priced for our miser owner.

It seems that for a team to just stay even, you need to look better than last year, on paper. Even the 2019 team looked good, on paper, but not better than 2019. Sure, the 2013 team example is one for the other view. I have not given up on 2024. We may add some players that improve my opinion, but we were not all that good last year, and there are doubts we look better without JT, Dugo, Duvall, Paxton, Sale and a few others. We added Gio, Grissom, Cambell and O'Neill.

Do you expect us to spend more than 2023, which was still not real close to the first tax line?

I'm optimistic that Gio will outpitch what we got from Paxton and Sale in 2023, but it by no means an odds on thing to expect. 2023: Gio 33 GS and 184 IP 4.88 ERA/5.27 FIP/ 1.31 WHIP Sale 20 GS 102 IP 4.30 ERA/ 3.80 FIP/ 1.13 WHIP Paxton 19 GS 96 IP 4.50 ERA/ 4.68 FIP/ 1.31 WHIP Combine Sale & Paxton and it's about.... 39 GS 199 IP 4.40 ERA 4.15 FIP 1.22 WHIP

No, but when you say it "probably will be..." I'm thinking they don't lie in that direction. “It probably will be lower than it was in 2023,” Kennedy said before the team’s Winter Weekend began at the MassMutual Center. “I don’t know that for sure. We don’t talk about specific payroll numbers.”

Okay. I listed 30 thi8ngs that "could go right" in another post. All of your nine listed could happen, and maybe even should happen, but we all know the odds are some will not. Maybe something else happens to outweigh ones that don't go right. I do think there are some slivers of hope, and enough of them to have some optimism, but without the commitment from the FO, I can't get excited. You, yourself have gone on and on about our failure not to make deadline moves to get us over the hump. You blame the FO for the team not doing better. Now, the FO is not even trying in the winter, and we can bet they won't at the deadline either. I'm not going to criticize anyone for being optimistic. I'm just not there, right now. I might not ever get there in 2024. I do think our D will improve from 28th to 30th up to near 15th. I think our offense will end up near #10. I think our pen could be #5-14th, depending on how Houck and Crawford are used, and how taxed it will be in 2024. For argument's sake, let's say 10th O, 10th pen, 15th D. That, alone should give us enough hope to be at least cautiously optimistic. I guess I vale the rotation more than some. Yes, I know about the Royals winning a ring with one that looks worse than ours does, now. I'm just thinking too much has to go exactly right, for us to have a real chance at the playoffs. Maybe, as we near ST'ing, my opinion will change. Maybe not.

True, but maybe Story had his one and is done with injuries. I see no reason to think otherwise. We have just seen his injury years, and are skeptical.

4.5 Devers 2.9 Casas 2.2 Grissom 1.7 Yoshida 1.6 Story 1.4 Duran, O'Neill 1.1 Abreu 1.0 Wong, 0.7 McGuire 0.6 Rafaela 0.4 Ref 0.3 EValdez, Reyes 2.4 Bello 2.2 Giolito 2.2 Pivetta 1.7 Houck & Crawford 1.0 Whitlock 0.9 Martin 0.6 Jansen 0.5 Scheiber & Wink 0.4 Bernardino & Walter 0.3 Campbell 0.2 Criswell & Murphy 0.1 Weissert

Fangraphs has these final fWAR projections: C: 0.8 McGuire 0.2 R Perez 0.1 Wong 1B: 3.0 Casas 2B: 2.3 Grissom SS: 1.7 Story 3B: 4.7 Devers LF: 1.7 O'Neill CF: 1.3 Duran RF: 1.3 Abreu DH: 1.9 Yoshida OF: 0.7 Refsnyder 0.3 Rafaela IF: 0.5 EValdez 0.2 Reyes SP: 2.5 Bello 2.4 Giolito 2.0 Pivetta 1.7 Crawford 1.7 Houck Pen: 1.0 Whitlock 0.9 Jansen 0.9 Martin 0.6 Wink 0.3 Schreiber & Walter 0.2 Bernardino, Mata, Murphy & Criswell 0.1 Campbell 0.0 Slaten ALE Projected Winning %: .553 NYY .529 TOR .522 TBR .513 BAL .505 BOS

Even with just a couple minor additions, we still have a chance in 2024. Yes, it's not likely, but we could get a confluence of things going well and be a surprise team. I'm just not seeing much to be optimistic about, right now. I'll still watch every pitch of every game.

I'm not confused about my own feelings. In a way, I feel less confused, now that the "cat is out of the bag." They have said they want to spend less than 2023. That's all I need to know to feel very confident with my pessimism.

He has not been an injury prone player over his career. He's not Freakin' Chris Frail.

Exactly. I'm not for trading away any one year players, if we added Monty & Duvall. I'm still trying to figure out what was so bad about being optimistic last January, but being pessimistic, this January is wrong.