Maxbialystock

Mondesi was with KC for 7 seasons, two of them (2018 and 2019) pretty good. This is the 4th season since 2019, and he seems to be going in the wrong direction, especially with his health (currently his knee).

Frankly, I don't like "eliminating factors out of the pitcher's control," and I'll tell you why. The ERA rule applies to all runs scored after what should have been the third out. And it makes no difference if the pitcher gives up 4 dingers in a row after what should have been, say, a caught third out popup. And let me take that one step further. While I do support the concept of "earned runs" to a degree, I also think much more of a pitcher who gets guys out after there was an error committed. In the same way, I think it's cool when the pitcher acknowledges a great defensive play that prevents a hit and/or run.

Frankly, I've pretty much had it with Kike, and it's not hard to see why. He stinks in the infield, and the Sox have four much better hitting outfielders in Yoshida, Duran, Duvall, and Verdugo. So scratch Kike. The best fielding outfield is probably Duran, Duvall, and Dugo, but I'm fine with Yoshida out there in LF, especially at Fenway. Not much range and not much arm, but adequate. Devers is fine at 3b. I want the best hitter at 1b--Turner or Casas. SS and 2B are the problem, and my preference right now would be Chang at SS and Story at 2b. Is Mondesi the hot prospect expected to take over at SS? If so, I can wait on him because, if they can stay healthy, I'm fine with Chang and Story. With Kike and/or Arroyo lurking in the background. I'm also fine with Wong/McGuire catching.

I can't remember whether Duvall has an arm. We know Duran doesn't. However, to date Duran's DWAR is +0.4 and Duvall's is -0.1.

Sox were 10-7 in games in which Chang played (usually SS). His DWAR is +0.4.

Agree on that last point. However, it is a truism that all Sox position players are symbolized with bats, not gloves/arms. As I have already said way too many times, whenever the Sox accidentally pick up a good fielding shortstop, they quickly find a way to get rid of him--unless he's a really good hitter. Bogaerts fit the Sox profile--good bat, ok glove/arm--perfectly for 8 straight seasons. Jose Iglesias, a brilliant fielding SS, did not, and was quickly traded away. Same deal earlier with Alex Gonzalez. I hasten to add that emphasizing hitting over fielding has by and large worked for the Sox--at least in the JH era.

I don't know how WAR or fWAR is calculated, but I have no quarrel with those fWAR numbers. Sale has 3 quality starts so far, and the rest of the rotation (Houck, Kluber, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, and Whitlock) has 4. I think Sale needs to do a better job of staying focused and calm, but he is this team's ace. Houck is the big surprise to me.

His career ERA is 5.07, and this year so far it's 6.23. Apropos of what we saw last night, try these stats on for size: first time he faces the batting order, their OPS is 1.026; second time it's .789; and third time it's .634.

I'm very pro-Wong and kind of anti-McGuire, but I'm not crazy. Overall, I've pretty happy to have two decent catchers: one bats righty, the other lefty; one is better defensively, the other (we think) is better offensively. On the other hand, Wong's WAR is +1.2, and McGuire's is -0.1. So it does make sense to give Wong more innings/games behind the plate.

You are either a super fan or a candidate for sainthood. I too could not watch it live, which was especially exasperating because it was on TBS (as well as mlb.com, etc), and the TBS station was literally blacked out for me. The presumption behind this treatment is that, instead of watching the game from home, I will drive 8 hours to Atlanta to see it and then drive 8 hours back. Madness, madness. Anyway, I had to watch the first inning to see how the wheels came off. And, frankly, I didn't think Pivetta looked all that bad. Leadoff single was against a good hitter with the count 3-2. Then came that first pitch dinger, righty vs. lefty on a curve that was in the middle of the zone. However, it wasn't a terrible curve and it was the first pitch--but the Atlanta hitter just got all of it. The walk that followed was also on a 3-2 count, so it wasn't like Pivetta was completely wild. Then the HBP in which the Atlanta batter "took" the hit by barely moving back and getting it in the shoulder. Sox hitters rarely do that. When you throw inside to Sox hitters, they jump 6 feet in the air, 6 feet backward, or throw themselves on the ground to avoid getting HBP'd. To Sox hitters an inside pitch is like a rattlesnake with triple-power venom. Next came the K of Rosario for the first freaking out of the inning. Then came the WP on a ball that hit the ground behind the plate, so my no doubt unfair take is that McGuire could have done a better job. Anyway, that put runners on 2d and 3d with one out, so Cora--the score is still just 2-0--brings the infield in to prevent the guy on 3d from scoring on a grounder. Of course the grounder gets through for a single and run #3, plus now another runner on 3b with just 1 out. With the infielders now at double play depth, a grounder to Devers at 3b brings home the 4th run with the ground out (and no GIDP). Finally the fly out for #3, and Pivetta has thrown 31 pitches in the first inning. The Braves did not blow him away. They hit just the one dinger on a curve ball, and everything else was singles, HBP, walk, WP, etc, etc. They bled him to death. Statistically, however, Pivetta's WAR dropped from +0.2 to -0.2, which puts him in a tie with Chris Sale. The only Sox starter with a plus WAR is Houck with +0.3.

If there is a game in which errors should be tolerated, this one has to be it. In 3 innings Pivetta gave up 7 hits and 3 walks. Whoops, there goes another rubber tree plant! 7-1 Braves, courtesy of Mr. Pivetta.

True. He started out throwing strikes, but the first batter singled and the second one hit a homer on the first pitch, a curve right down the middle. So, lesson learned, and Pivetta walked the next Braves hitter and hit the next one with a pitch. Now that the Braves have a 5-0 lead, Pivetta can settle down and show us how solid he is when he's already given the game away.

Don't you mean "after the game is given away?" Atlanta's up 5-0 and their pitching is better than Philly's.

Whatever. To me all these future lineups are sand castles.

He has no problem throwing strikes because that's what the Braves are hitting. His problem he can't hit corners. Most of his strikes have been right down the middle.

With Yoshida, Duran, and Verdugo in the outfield, Kike plays infield or not at all. Duvall is probably going to replace Duran.

Sox tonight are giving every indication they can lose 8 in a row as easily as they won 8 in a row.

Agree. This game is over. Pivetta throws the ever popular hanging curve ball right down the middle.

Houck has the most IP on the team, 37.2. 2d is Sale, 35.1. 3d is Kluber, 34.1. And 4th is Pivetta, 30.2, who gets his 7th start today. If he goes, say, 5.1 innings today, that's 36 IP in 7 starts. In other words, four of the five starters are a pretty tight shot group in terms of IP. They're all around 5 IP per game. And that puts a lot of pressure on the bullpen.

Me, I would probably stick with the current five: Sale, Kluber, Houck, Pivetta, and Bello. I dislike Kluber the most, but he's been decent his last 3 starts. Sale is the ace, but a tad too prima-donnish right now. Houck, Pivetta, and Bello are, to me, all decent starters. I honestly think Houck would have gotten Schwarber out in the 6th inning last Sunday. If he had, that would have been 6 IP, 1 ER, and getting through the first five Phillies hitters for the third time. On the other hand, I don't trust Paxton or Whitlock to start right now. Crawford, maybe, but he's also been pretty good out of the pen. The six best WAR's on the Sox pitching staff belong to relievers: Winck +1.0; Jansen +0.6; Schreiber +0.6; Crawford +0.5; Martin +0.4; and Bernardino +0.4.

Interesting you should emphasize that point because right now talksox is rife with pronouncements that the dumbest thing Cora can do is let his starters go against opposing lineups a third time in a game. And there's plenty of statistical support for that view.

And I said that early on. I disagree with pulling Houck, but agree completely that decision had no effect on who would win the game. Leave Houck in, assume he gets Schwarber out, and the Sox still lose--and not just by 2-1. The Sox bullpen was determined to give the Phillies more runs, and the Phillies pitching had our hitters stymied. If you believe in the "dud liberation movement," sending Bleier out was absolutely the right thing to do. He demonstrated his incompetence in tough situations. Also, and I don't mind conceding this point to moonslav, by not letting Houck face Schwarber, Cora now has a starter who just did pretty doggone well against the 4 best Phillies hitters when he faced them for the 3d time: a popup, a K, a ground out, and a single.

Agree that burning out multi-inning relievers is a risk. However, so far that applies to just one guy, Winckowski, with 13 appearances in 37 days, including six 2-inning games and 2 3-inning games. And moonslav's point is that, with Paxton, Whitlock, and Crawford coming off the IL this month, Cora will be able to spread multi-inning relief jobs among more pitchers. Our current rotation of Sale, Kluber, Houck, Pivetta, and Bello is far from perfect, but right now I think they are more reliable than Paxton, Whitlock, or Crawford. Kluber's the worst, but in his last 3 starts he went 6IP with 1 ER vs. the Orioles, then 5 IP with 3 ER vs. the Jays, and finally 5 IP with 3 ER vs the Phillies. And the Sox won all three games.

Good points--especially that Cora has left Houck in longer/later this season than in any of the previous three. That I did not know. I can't argue that leaving Houck in was the obvious choice, because clearly it was not. I just think he had a better chance getting Schwarber out than anyone else available. I also think that pulling Houck had no effect on the outcome. The Phillies were just better yesterday. The streak had to end sometime--better in a 6-1 game.

So the other night I was watching the movie The Right Stuff and was again amazed at how everyone seemed terrified of "breaking the sound barrier," which mean flying faster than the speed of sound (350M/sec, give or take). When Chuck Yeager finally did it, it was no big deal--well, except that he set a new world record. And my point here is that the bad stats on Tanner Houck must be disregarded if he is going to progress. And the irony--ignored by almost everyone disagreeing with me--is that those bad stats were ignored yesterday when Cora allowed Houck to pitch to the first four hitters in the Phillies lineup for the third freaking time. That was in fact a breakthrough. But Old Red, MVP 78, Bellhorn and others seem to me to be saying, "what breakthrough? Nothing changed yesterday except that Cora finally got smart and yanked that dud Tanner Houck off the mound just in time."