jd98

Wow. I didn't even know he had turned down the QO. He signed for 2 years/$21million total, instead of the 1 year/$15.3m QO. With just a decent season, he'd easily make more money taking the QO, unless he wanted out of Colorado or in NY for some reason. I'm finding all of this offseason stuff more exciting than the last 2-3 months of the regular season was.

Oh well, I guess nobody liked my plan, except maybe BSN07 since it was similar to his. Funny that everybody focused on Howard when he was the least important part of the whole thing. I was leery of Hamels at first, but now I really want him (with Lester too). He's 4th active in ERA+ (min 1000 IP), behind Kershaw, Wainwright, and Felix. He and Lester are also two of the most durable pitchers, both have made 30+ starts each of the last 7 years. Third on my wish list would be no Panda. Don't get me wrong, I'd like him on the team, but his asking price is way too high. Headley's numbers away from Petco aren't much different than Sandoval, plus he is a gold glove caliber defender, and is way cheaper. Back to Howard (I feel like his agent trying to defend him), sure a Howard/Craig platoon could be a disaster, but it also has good upside. If they can just bounce back to 2013 numbers, it's actually an improvement over Napoli. For seabeachfred, Howard the last 3 years (his worst years by far), hit .271/.383/.462 with RISP when his overall numbers were just .233/.309/.412, so he's the anti-Bogaerts in that regard. He's only had 2 bad years (2012, 2014), and both were coming back from a major injury, so maybe he can at least bounce back to 2013 which was decent. Anyway, yeah 1B is a question mark in my scenario, but the key things were adding 2 aces and a second tier SP with good upside, adding a good 3B, losing minimal prospects and no draft picks, and staying under the cap Cheers

I don't particularly want Howard, but it's a part of getting Hamels for less prospects. It's only for 2 years, probably in a platoon, and he still has power and drives in runs. He was 4th in the NL in RBI last year on a team that was bottom third offensively, and that was probably his worst hitting year. If he could bounce back some, he's got decent value. If he continues to get worse, then you could replace him with Nava or Holt and you would essentially be overpaying Hamels for the first two years.

I'll take my turn at being couch GM. Lester 6/$150m, $25m AAV Mccarthy 3/$36m, $12m AAV Headley 4/$50m, $12.5m AAV Trade Napoli, Victorino, Middlebrooks, DeLaRosa and 1 of Owens/Rodriguez/Johnson for Hamels and Howard and Phillies pay 15m/15m/10m on Howard Hamels 22m AAV Howard 10m AAV CF Betts 2B Pedroia DH Ortiz LF Cespedes 1B Howard/Craig 3B Headley RF Castillo SS Bogaerts C Vazquez Bench -- Holt, Nava, Howard/Craig, league minimum backup C, internal options SP -- Lester, Hamels, McCarthy, Buchholz, Kelly Bullpen -- Uehara, Tazawa, Mujica, Workman/Layne/Britton/Webster/other internal options That would be right at the cap if I crunched the numbers right, and no draft picks given up.

Phillies would have to pay part of Howard's contract. I think they easily pay $10m each year and the $10 m buyout. If you could get them to pay $15m per year plus the buyout, that would make the contract $10m for the next two years, which isn't too bad. Even when Howard sucks, he still drives in runs (95 RBI last year), which the Sox sorely missed last season. He does have a knack for hitting much better with RISP. That trade would then only add about $3m in salary for next year, and keep all the best prospects. Still could easily sign Lester and Headley too and be under the luxury tax limit. I kinda like it. Edited to add: I think the Phillies would want more. Article today says they are looking for 3 top prospects (not gonna happen). Also, you have to at least be concerned with Hamels career numbers in AL parks.

They've given no indication that they will go over the luxury tax, and you just went way over. You also traded away maybe 4 of the top 5 prospects (if you still count Bogaerts as a prospect), which I sure hope they would not do. Personally, I would take Betts over CarGo for the next 3 years without even considering salary. When you factor in salary, it's not even close. CarGo is coming off a bad season and a knee surgery, is as oft injured as anybody not named after a cereal, and has only hit .256/.309./433 in his career away from Coors.

2014 was underachievement big time. Maybe the personnel could have been better, but every single one of the expected regulars (hitters) significantly underperformed what was expected. Every single one. To keep it simple, I'm just going to show OPS. The 1st number is career OPS, the 2nd is last 3 years, and the 3rd is 2014 with Red Sox. A.J. Pierzynski .750/.759/.633 David Ross .764/.746/.629 Mike Napoli .859/.895/.789 Dustin Pedroia .823/.816/.712 Will Middlebrooks .756/.756/.522 Xander Bogaerts .684/.684/.660 (only 50 PA before 2014) Shane Victorino .774/.780/.685 Grady Sizemore .830/.706/.612 (last 3 years consist of only 295 PA in 2011) Jackie Bradley .617/.617/.531 (only 107 PA before 2014) Daniel Nava .782/.782/.706 Jonny Gomes .788/.781/.683 David Ortiz .930/.972/.873 Funny that the only one even close to their past numbers was Bogaerts, but it's safe to say more was expected of him than the .684 OPS in 50 PA from 2013. Can't leave out the wonderful signing of Drew. Stephen Drew .764/.725/.583 Holt came out of nowhere, and was the only one to play regularly early and not underperform. Brock Holt .601/.601/.711 (only 144 PA before 2014) For completeness, the only other players to not join the team late, and get meaningful number of AB Jonathan Herrera .658/.654/.596 Mike Carp .781/.788/.599

Tulo said that he would retire before switching positions.

20+25+20+11=76 not 66, so they can't do that without going over the luxury tax limit, which I doubt they will do. However, after they trade Cespedes or somebody, then they could do it.

Count me as someone who thinks OBP is overrated now, and the Sox were way too willing to try to drive up pitch counts, just for the sake of driving up pitch counts. I was thinking early in the season that almost every Sox hitter seemed to go up to the plate with the intention of drawing a walk. That's not likely to work well when the other team knows that is what you're trying to do. At some point, you need to hit the ball. For an extreme example, a team that hits the ball 35% of the time (all types of hits) and never walks is going to score a whole lot more runs than a team that walks 35% of the time but never gets a hit, even though their OBP will be the same. The other teams have caught on to the Sox, and are getting ahead in the count. One stat that isn't debatable is that players hit much worse when down in the count.

They're not bound to give him the qualifying offer. That was their original plan, and why he wasn't traded. After his recent horrible stretch, they may do what you are suggesting and offer him 1 year at less than the QO, or just let him go elsewhere.

Mookie started at SS, but was not good (9 errors in 13 games). But that was years ago, so maybe he'd be better there now after years of experience in the infield. I read somewhere that he played CF in high school. I think it would be a huge mistake to trade him, which means he will probably be traded. I can imagine the front office thinking "Well our last 2 untouchable prospects both sucked and lost most of their trade value, so we better trade this one now" There were already too many outfielders before the Castillo signing, so somebody will go. If everybody's healthy, players who either played significant time in OF or are expected to: Cespedes, Castillo, Betts, Victorino, Craig, Nava, JBJ, Holt. Can't imagine JBJ playing for the Red Sox next year. If Craig shows anything in September, I expect Napoli to be traded, and Craig moved to 1B. Vic and maybe Cespedes will be gone after next year, so hopefully Castillo and Betts can coexist for 1 year, and maybe have both in the OF in 2016.

Is Castillo going to be any better than Betts? I don't really think so. Seems like another unnecessary panic move. They gave him more than they were willing to give Jose Abreu last year, even though Abreu was a much better hitter in Cuba and the Sox needed a 1st baseman. So what happens to Betts now? He moved from 2B to CF because Pedroia is signed for 7 more years, and now they've signed a CF for 6 more years. I hope he's not traded.

That's true. Not all AB are created equal. But there's still something bad going on in his head when he sees a man on 2nd or 3rd.

I'm not gonna pick a side on Bogaerts yet, but I want to point out that the stuff you mention actually support Fred's argument. When he had both RBI Wednesday, he was still 0-1 with RISP (the sac fly was certainly appreciated over a K). In his 'huge postseason', he was 1-8 with RISP, and the 1 was an infield hit. Last regular season he was 1-11 with RISP. He certainly has choked with RISP so far in his career. It should be something he overcomes as he gets older though.

I didn't say he was. Sizemore was. Vic would have played CF when Sizemore sat out.

The funny thing is that he was supposed to start the season in the minors and only made the team because Vic got hurt. Meanwhile, Vic has come and gone twice, two OF's were traded for, the #1 prospect was called up for the OF, JBJ has sucked the entire season offensively, and he still hasn't been sent to the minors.

When Drew left, he sold JBJ the video he had of Farrell and Cherington in an orgy of hookers and drugs.

Kelly Johnson. I'm not sure why they need him. Could have just gave the Yankees $1 million instead.

That's the key point. If Craig doesn't bounce back, Kelly is just back of the rotation guy, and Lackey pitches well for 500K, then yeah this was a very bad trade. If Craig can bounce back, I'm wrong about Kelly, and Lackey demands a new contract or pitches bad because he's grumpy, then this trade looks pretty good.

I'll admit I was too harsh on Joe Kelly because I was pissed at the trade of Lackey. However, this was still a National League start in a pitcher's park against the second lowest scoring team in MLB. I'll treat it the same as Buchholz's game against Houston: a good game but not an indicator of future success. I still don't think he'll be very successful in the AL, but not nearly as bad as I was originally saying. If he keeps the ball on the ground and in the ballpark, he can get out of most trouble he creates, without having to get strikeouts. I expect an ERA around 4.50, which is ok for a back of the rotation guy.

Eduardo Rodriguez had a great debut with Portland. 5.1 inn, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 R, 7K. Maybe he really is a top prospect.

Probably so. What I would do is Betts in CF, Cespedes in RF, Nava LF/Holt 3B vs righties and Holt LF/WMB 3B vs lefties. JBJ defensive sub. Worry about what to do with Craig when he gets back, somebody else may be hurt by then. That seems better than what ever the hell Farrell is doing.

Free Mookie!!

Guess who's not in the lineup again tonight.