jd98
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Everything posted by jd98
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ok, I see now. Low risk as in money and years, where I always interpreted it as low risk of the player sucking. Not really important, I just thought after seeing that 4 or 5 times I would 'correct' him, but I was misunderstanding. And I am also concerned that the Sox will end up going this route, especially if they miss out on Lester. I was also wrong about Panda being the highest paid player now, since Hanley's deal had been misreported. That doesn't change the Panda deal though, only makes the Hanley deal not quite as good. Maybe I'm only 82% excited about the Hanley deal now.
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I'm not going to try to predict what trades are coming because if Cherington has shown one thing this offseason, it is that he is unpredictable. The two biggest needs were SP and SP, so he signs the two most expensive free agent hitters. ????? Already have 5 or 6 OF that deserve regular playing time, so he signs a SS to move to OF. ????? Obviously there is much still to come, so I'm not judging yet, except for the Sandoval deal, that's just insane. He's now the highest paid player on the team, and will probably be the highest paid hitter for the next 5 years, with a .759 OPS over the last 3 seasons and zero speed, and good but not great defense. I'm 90% excited about Hanley signing. The money and years is less than what was expected, and he has MVP upside. I expect him to do well in Boston. The 10% pessimism is that he has been wildly inconsistent, has been injured a lot, and is bad defensively.
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You keep saying low risk, high reward. I think you mean high risk, low reward or possibly high risk, high reward. Low risk, high reward is a good thing and what you should hope for.
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Can't see Panda as a trade asset. He's already getting paid more than any other team is willing to pay him, and now they would have to give up players too. He's gonna have to be much better than he has been the last 3 years for anybody to want to trade for him.
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They can't really be planning on signing Hanley and Sandoval. I thought just Sandoval was crazy for that money, but signing him after adding Hanley is beyond comprehension for me. Maybe they're planning on a $200+ million payroll. That's the only way I can understand it.
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yeah, crazy contracts is the new normal. So does that mean they aren't crazy, or maybe I'm just crazy. I don't know anymore.
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Every time I get on the internet, I'm hoping to see that Sandoval has signed with the Giants. The contract he'll get is just nuts. He's had 1 year in the last 5, and none in the last 3, that are worth that kind of money. Meanwhile, Headley gives you similar value for half the money, but I haven't even heard that the Sox have any interest in him. For the WAR crowd, Headley has a higher fWAR than Sandoval in 4 of the last 5 years, and has a higher total WAR over the past x years, no matter the value of x. If the Sox are going to spend like the Yankees or Dodgers, then sure what the hell sign Sandoval, otherwise it doesn't make much sense.
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If you're going to use WAR as your primary 'stat' of comparison, at least use it or extrapolate it for a similar amount of plate appearances, since WAR is cumulative (unless you're trying to include how much a player is injured). The numbers you use are more misleading than Pal's use of OPS. Sandoval is much better defensively, but just looking at offensive WAR, Francisco was 1.1 over about half a season, and Sandoval was 3.0 over full season, so edge to Sandoval, but not a big difference. OPS+ does factor in ball parks, Sandoval was 111, and Francisco was 107, so again edge to Sandoval but not a big difference, and Francisco's would be higher against RHP, but I couldn't find that listed specifically. I'm not trying to make a case for Francisco, but just pointing out that Pal's stats are at least worth considering, and it is wrong just to say they are meaningless and then use WAR over a disparate number of at bats to compare.
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Agree with what BSN07 just said, and I'll add that I don't think Tampa is in rebuilding mode. They lost their manager and GM, but it was not by choice, Hellickson sucked the last two years, Price is a big loss but Smyly is pretty damn good and was better than Price after the trade. I'd take any of Smyly/Cobb/Archer/Odirizzi over any current Sox SP, plus they get Matt Moore back at some point. Their pitching is still strong, if they can just improve on their offense, they'll be in good shape.
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I think everybody missed the joke.
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Can't take this guy too seriously after making that statement. Nobody considers Ranaudo the Sox top pitching prospect. He's typically considered fifth, not even counting Webster or De La Rosa. And unless you consider more walks than strikeouts and 10 HR in 39 IP as a good thing, then he is not ready now. If I had any confidence that the front office will not do something stupid, then I would say Betts will not be traded. To answer the question that started all the Betts talk, I think Cespedes gets traded, and they try to rotate all the other OF and give each of them plenty (too many) of days off during the early season and see how it plays out from there.
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What would vintage Babe Ruth or Ted Williams get today? 15 years, $1 billion?
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Hmm, I'd go with Cespedes, Betts, Victorino, only because Castillo is the most unknown still. If Castillo is for real and plays like he did in September, then I just don't know. Nava also needs to play against most righties, and if Craig is healthy and productive, he needs to be full time too. So a related question, who ends up getting traded?
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I wouldn't expect Marrero for Samardzija straight up. Wouldn't surprise me to see Cespedes go back to Oakland with Marrero and maybe Oakland include a mid-level prospect. That would be funny if Lester ends up back in Boston and Cespedes ends up back in Oakland.
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That's probably what will happen, and they'll add a backup C and RP and be done. Not my preference, but it should be good enough to compete as long as the entire offense doesn't underperform again.
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I think this will be may last post on this scenario. I'm sure everybody agrees this dead horse has been beaten enough. My plan would be to get Lester AND Hamels. Scherzer would cost too much. It would be a total of $110m for Hamels (ignoring a 2019 team/vesting option) and $20m for Howard (theoretical value of prospects does not translate to actual cash). By year, it would be $32.5/$32.5/$22.5/$22.5, so that's not $40m per year. Also, I do not consider Howard to be worthless (granted, it's a possibility), so the first two years would be for 2 players.
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You're pretty much right. I'd assume that the more the Phillies pay on [name redacted], the more prospects they would want. My original proposal was basically to pay $10 million the next 2 years for [that guy I'm trying not to talk about] for 1 less top prospect. Obviously I don't know if it would work exactly like that, but it seems reasonable from both sides. That's a good point.
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What you're saying is true from a money standpoint, but not for luxury tax purposes. For luxury tax purposes, you use the AAV over the entire contract, not just what's left, so the $25m AAV for the next 2 years already includes the $10m buyout. And as mentioned several times here and all over the internet, the Phillies will pay a huge part of that. And why I am still talking about [he who shall not be named]. me neither, that's why I said 'or somebody else'. Currently, the Sox can probably only add 1 ace type pitcher, trading Napoli would probably allow for another that's not overly expensive like Scherzer. That's the big picture and would be my preference. If you don't want to go that route, I respect that opinion.
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Lol, I purposely didn't dare mention him, and he's still the part that get focused on. To answer your question, I'm not assuming that at all, it's just my preference. BSN07 explains it well above. Also, Hamels was just my example in those equations. You could replace him with Shields or somebody else if you wish.
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Trading Napoli gives you $16 million to put towards SP, so there is a purpose. It also gives Craig somewhere to play if 2014 was a fluke. Pre-2014 Craig is better than Napoli has been with the Sox. 2014 Craig was horrendous. That's the quandary. It boils down to something like would you prefer De La Rosa as SP and Napoli at 1B, or Hamels as SP and Craig at 1B (I'm not mentioning [he who shall not be named] anymore). If Craig does bounce back, then it's a huge improvement for the team. If not, then you've upgraded 1 position and downgraded 1 position.
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I have no interest in Howard. It would just make a Hamels trade easier. I mentioned in the other thread why Howard isn't so bad, so I'll keep it short. He wouldn't be facing lefties. I think the Phillies would pay a minimum of $40 million of his salary. Howard wasn't bad in 2013, vs righties he hit .302/.357/.522.
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Signing neither is certainly a viable option. However, if they want to go with Cecchini, they should easily be able to trade Headley unless he just completely falls apart or has a major injury. I forgot to mention that Headley's injury history is overblown. He's played the second most games of any 3B in MLB over the last 4 years and last 5 years, and the most over the last 6 years.
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This one is interesting. First, the Sox should definitely plan on being contenders in 2015. They have Betts, Castillo, Cespedes as everyday OF. Victorino and Nava combined should be more than full time also. And then there's still Craig. Somebody needs to go, and probably two. Trading Napoli frees up the most money for this year, and then can move Craig and maybe Nava to 1B, but as a700 mentioned, that relies on Craig to bounce back, and it still doesn't clear up the OF logjam. I like BSN07's idea of including Nap in a package for Hamels and Howard, then if either of Howard or Craig bounce back, you're probably fine, and you still have Nava to fall back on or even Holt, and you've added an ace pitcher. So, yeah, I'd trade Napoli (and either Vic or Cespedes too).
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Headley x1000, based mostly on contract, and a little on defense. Offense I see them as similar value. Just ignore numbers at Petco, it's the most extreme pitcher's park by far. Defense, Sandoval is good, but Headley is excellent. Might can sign Headley for 3/$39 or probably 4/$48 at most, while Sandoval is looking for 6/$100
