sk7326

Considering that this PoV would end up saying a 95-67's accomplishment is not as great as an 83-79 team's accomplishment - I'd have to disagree. Also, without the Wild Card you would expect the Red Sox mathematically to win 2 division titles in 12 seasons, and that would be overachieving if you went back to 4 teams. I will promptly get off of your lawn now.

Lucchino is annoying and has a big mouth - but he is also the one who bridges the two Sox views (the Sox as a baseball team AND the Sox as a TV show on NESN). To call him an empty suit is not fair - as the guy who developed Camden Yards and more or less discovered guys like Theo, his eye for baseball exec talent is excellent. But yes, the tension in ownership between the Sox as a team and as a TV show is constant and has driven a lot of the short sighted moves. One of the interesting paradoxes I think is that the current Sox trajectory - dramatic down and up - is probably better for the business.

This is with NBA Analytics guys, but it is a really good discussion on tools and scouting and how they fit together: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2378041-nba-insider-is-it-numbers-or-talent-sorting-fact-fiction-in-nba-stats-wave

Yes and no - he doesn't hit the baseball all that much, which makes him look worse than he is. But because of his style, he still gets on base at a decent clip even when he is not making contact regularly. Craig is definitely more "classic" in this sense.

My theory is that they looked at the declining strikeout rate, his age, one good-verygood season in the last 3 and priced that into their "pre-season" negotiating strategy. They crafted an offer that would satisfy a "past peak" guy (and might in fact be fair looking at future performance) but nothing that could prevent Lester from making a bet on himself and going to the open market. But then Lester bounced back and bore an amazing resemblance to the 2009 version of Jon Lester, and when you take that combined with his remarkable durability - he changed the parameters. And you get to an open market, it's a crapshoot. I think the Red Sox view of Lester fundamentally changed based on Lester's form in 2014 - the continuation and improvement on his end of 2013 form might have gone from outlier to "genuine improvement". The problem is by the time they figured this out - Lester was available for all to bid.

The thing with groundball pitchers is that they are more likely to give up actual hits than flyball guys are - flyballs for the most part are either outs or disasters. Groundball guys challenge the team run prevention concept a bit more. K's are still the best

This is all true - although that describes any projection. The prospect burnout rate is high - but not all of said prospects are created equal. Guys who outperform their age at a given level are far less likely to bust. Betts might be a flash in the pan, but a guy who was a 2 win player in 1/3 of a season before his 22nd birthday is (assuming health) as strong a bet as you get.

What is insane is not those contracts specifically, but that they cheaped out on Cano! Both of those moves actually make sense if you keep the actual superstar.

A lot of where Moncada starts is also based on where the Sox start him - maybe they'll start him at 2B and Devers at 3B if they are starting Moncada in Greenville.

2B is sensible, although there is a lot of high contact there and he has the arm for 3B. I think given his age and his size already, 3B/RF is the realistic outcome - if he just grows a little.

It's a vesting option - it would just mean getting rid of the vest part. Now a key thing here is that Lee would be waiving a no-trade clause to go to Boston too ... and that normally costs money. Basically the Sox would be paying $15M to waive his no-trade.

I think the agreement you'd see might be him waiving the buyout in exchange for guaranteeing the option. (which even at his age is not terrible) - turns it into 2 years $52.5M

Steamer has Hamels for 2.7 WAR this season. So, if you extrapolate this to the next 4 years with a slight downward trend, let's estimate 10 WAR between 2015 and 2018. Assuming 7.5 million per win (which assumes some inflation and the Red Sox are always on the high end of this scale) let's call it $75M of value. We'd be paying $110M for it. Time value of money is a non-issue in this case. Suppose we add Mookie Betts as the core prospect. Steamer used 2.6 WAR. So you'd have 12 WAR over those 4 seasons using conservative estimates for development. That's $90M of value. We'd be paying 2 arb years at best, so let's say it would cost Boston $50 million maybe. Now the dollars for WAR and stuff are really sketchy for lots of good reasons - but this gives some idea of the cost of doing business in a deal like this.

Oh I think they see the 70% bust rate, it's just the expectation that the 30% which hit more than pay for the other 70%. Overall it is a net positive, or at least that is the idea. There is a little more risk often with holding onto the guys with ceiling, but given how hard it is to get stars at their prime, that becomes the focus. Personally, I think it's the sensible way for a large revenue team to use its farm system.

Interesting that the Phils also turned down the Padres who offered their top guys ... Amaro clearly is aiming way too high for now.

Certainly not at this point ... I think in these deals Amaro wants to deliver some 2015-16 impact. I'd also add Vasquez as one of the "outside shot" sorts.

That would make sense. That said, while the package for Lee should not be as steep as one for Hamels (older, less control) Philadelphia will want to be able to show results for the deal - and the Red Sox have a genuine surplus of assets enough to justify a mild overpay. I'd think Lee for Victorino, some close to the bigs prospect (Johnson, Barnes, Cecchini flavor) and some lower level lottery ticket (Ball, one of the 2014 draftees though he'd be a PTBNL if a deal happened now) would be reasonable. Now Vasquez might be part of the former - but that is a decision the front office has to make. Could something more be added (Rodriguez, Margot, Devers) - maybe, if some of the financial burden is alleviated, but I'd be reluctant in any other circumstance.

I am somewhat ambivalent about Hamels - I don't think it'd be a disaster, and Philly is probably right to want one of those top two guys - and the Red Sox are reasonable for balking at the price. But Lee is a guy with a better track record and without a long haul. In either case Amaro will probably want somebody who can impact 2015, although that might be a lower ceiling guy for Lee

Nothing is impossible - but if he is ready for Portland by the end of the year, this is an unqualified success.

Where is this that Moncada can play any infield position? He can today, that's it. Hanley was such a virus in the Red Sox system that the Red Sox dealt him for a 25 year old World Series MVP. The only bad thing one can say about Ramirez (and if you are holding him to what he was in his early 20s, I am sorry for you) is that he has shown to be brittle. I saw the chicken and beer which derailed our playoffs for ONE WHOLE SEASON ...

Shows how stupid the bonus pool is - at least one that is not truly mandatory. Talent costs money - full stop.

I take Cherington at his word that the Red Sox are done shopping for now - makes more sense for the trade market to open up instead of being wed to Hamels (or anybody else) right now. Both Castillo and Betts have options, so the team can either A) start with one of them in AAA or only bring 11 pitchers up north if none of the outfielders get moved in the spring. (Obviously Bradley has options too, but I am assuming he is not a part of the big league picture for now) The willingness to move Swihart will be dependent on the usual things - how desperate they are as shoppers, how well Swihart plays and how well Vasquez plays. I mean, if Swihart crushes AAA and Vasquez delivers a .600 OPS sort of season, the front office will have to make a real decision about where the future is. That might involve taking a plunge with a guy you have not seen in the bigs - that is why Cherington gets the big bucks, to make such a leap. Very clearly, Cecchini, Bradley, Merrero, Coyle and the middle class pitchers are the first batch of trade fodder the Red Sox will offer. Very clearly a team with an asset like the Phils will be looking at the Sox Top 100 entrants. To me, it is clear there is a position player surplus - enough of one that solving that represents an optimal use of resources.

It's about what the top pick in the draft would get if the players and owners did not agree to keep their bonuses down. If Moncada delivers 3 decent seasons before arbitration, it's paid for itself.

There is just more to know. Obviously when the term got popular, things like plate patience and such were the main fruit. (and if you want, you can trace back "analytics" as far back as Earl Weaver if you want to assign full credit) And the World Series had two teams who were very much dependent on that sort of research, especially in the area of defense. The interesting areas now - and the stuff you read about teams working on - is batted ball analysis. That is, we take it as an article of faith that BABIP is hard to control - it's not 100%, but it's not 0 either. There is evidence of pitchers who have consistently low BABIPs, and hitters (although fewer) who have consistencies in this area. So figuring out stuff about the nature of contact and what hitters can actually do is becoming more important (especially as the game has shifted towards pitchers again). It is possible that this sort of stuff helped the case to sign Sandoval - who if nothing else is a very high contact hitter.

You don't sacrifice big league wins at the prices they are charging us. This is not license to be dumb, but no reason to act like we don't have more poker chips than other people. I'd like to hold on to the every kid I think can be a superstar. I'm not even advocating moving Devers (heavens no) or Margot. But you don't make big league decisions on something 3 years away - not unless you are in an actual teardown. If the right piece is there (quality + control), you have to look at your "I love them but they haven't even left Salem yet" kids and make the calculation.