sk7326

Victorino had an MVP-caliber season in 2013 (ok, MVP caliber if you pretend Mike Trout did not exist). Injuries and age held up the rest of it, but the contract was a net win by any valuaton, and when you consider the flag that flies forever, it was even better than that.

Not an issue - if the prospects are what they could be, they will find a home in Boston or somewhere else. The org does not block anybody - the kids do that.

Basically nothing but the chance to dump salary - but that's fine ... he was not going to command much more

Indeed - but it does flip a trope that is popular round these parts ... if one part is weak you fix it with a strong part

Fun fact - the best team in the AL had zero #1 or #2 starters until yesterday.

Those are a lot of poor draft positions.

Polished college bat. Might not have ideal power for 1B, but the approach and contact from what I have read is legit

i think it's possible - but there is no reason not to wait til one of the rentals is a FA. Controllable pitching I agree can be had whenever.

He'd go after a starter because it could assure a playoff spot. Same answer as the "better team" one. If there is a flavor of contention, you have to try to contend. Whether the Red Sox are actually in contention is a conflicted question. 6.5 games back is contention, but 6.5 games and several teams to hop is dicier.

I think it is a complicated question this year, moreso than other years. Because you are right, the division is flawed and so it can be had. But with the run differentials and whatnot, the FO has a harder go than normal doing the self assessment - the "are we really any good" question.

Depends on how they played. If this team had a good run differential and was playing >.500 ball? Then you have a team where one key marginal change can have a lot of bang as far as improving World Series odds. The Red Sox were in first place virtually every day of 2013, and on the "best team in baseball" shortlist the entire way but they still traded went for Peavy. Yes Buchholz' injury was relevant there, but that's the point. You saw a team that was in a position to be special and they saw a hole they HAD to fix to do it. (per their own self assesment) If this team were hitting and pitching like what was expected (your median scenario), they would be shopping hard for that restaurant quality starter.

No. But I think the team has had to show more in order to make a deal that features a mild "overpay". Two months of Doyle Alexander for what turned out to be Steve Avery and John Smoltz is a poor baseball deal. It also won the Tigers the 1987 AL East. You can make a "Flags Fly Forever" argument if the team is close enough to do so. (yes I know they did not win the AL Pennant, but that does not negate the point)

From the yankees prospects blurb from the january list It's just an opinion at the end of the day - and it's not like there are ONLY 50 good prospects in the minors ... but I find his work 1) is decisive. you want a rank, you get a rank. 2) admits mistakes (Chris Sale, Dustin Pedroia) ... 3) tries to reconcile his thinking actively with trends in the industry ... in other words ... the opposite of what HoF voters do.

I don't know. Currently he is being raised as a 2B, so he is getting lots of PT. That is thing with promotions - if you look at Margot's promotion to AA. He did not crush Salem. But teams have their own internal checklists - what is the kid working on, is he fixing whatever. Let's put it this way - nobody is having egg on their face if the kid is not in Portland yet.

Salem. They rushed him past Lowell already. I'd say there is no need to hustle him. At the same time, there might be a push to get him to play 3B more, and if that is the case, he's fighting Devers and Chavis for PT in Greenville and moving somebody to Salem would alleviate some of that.

The guy to also kick tires on is Jordan Zimmermann. The Nats are obviously good, but they also have a surplus and a probably not going to re-sign him. Could there be a match there? But I think a Leake, Kazmir, Gallardo flavor guy is likelier.

Other way around - if we were higher in the standings there would a basis to go all in. I don't think Cherington has ever thought this rotation was good enough to win 11 games in October. I think he felt confident this rotation was good enough to win 52 or more games out of 100. If the latter materialized more, then thinking about how to win the October games would be more relevant.

Depends on what you call front of the line ... but I think yes. FO gave this team 2-3 weeks to present a credible case ... largely they have. That said, I imagine a case like Gallardo will be more likely than a Cueto or Hamels.

Not really an omission if i read correctly: #13 - Aaron Judge I think he has noted he usually tries to see the guys once a year at least ... and that his rankings favor upside because that's what front offices do and that seems more informative for readers.

good approach ... takes good at-bats (especially from the left side)

I think you are right in some respects here. After all, I've always noted that Potential as a function of Age, Level and Performance is very useful. 22 is not old for AA, and Hernandez has played quite well. Now compared to his A-stats, this is a tremendous jump. Now, what the principle of regression to the mean says is that the guy he showed earlier (the guy with a below .700 OPS) is the real him, and that he will turn into that pumpkin eventually. However (to answer your question - and I am only repeating what the Law or Baseball America sorts say, I have no special talent here), what scouts and FOs want to see is did Hernandez do something (or did he physically grow) where this uptick in performance is bankable and real. If he has had a hot 300 PAs, but is still the same guy ... then that is one thing. If he has done something with his body or swing which has come out in the results? That is a different matter, and one which you start taking very seriously. Minor league stats are always constrained in their usefulness, just because the games don't count and you don't know what notes the farm director has passed on about stuff the kid should be working on. I have not seen excitement for Hernandez match his performance, but that doesn't mean you are wrong in appreciating the performance.

It is hard to dream of a #1 when a guy's virtues are his changeup and his feel ... that doesn't mean that you wouldn't take ... say Bruce Hurst's career ... but you wouldn't confuse it with Clayton Kershaw either. That said, the larger point is - even is Owens only projects as a #2/#3 sort, that is an extremely useful pitcher, and nothing to sleep on.

Small disagreement here. Rodriguez was always the ceiling guy between the two - but you are right, due to control leaps and bounds behind Owens in terms of probability. His ceiling has been higher, but you had to dream more too. His improvement since coming to Boston changed his "likelihood" considerably - one of the things which had to go right did. Of the Red Sox 3 pawsox arms, I looked at Rodriguez as the upside guy, Johnson as pure probability and Owens as your "a bit of both"

Keith Law Updated Top 50 ... http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4096 #8. Rafael Devers #11 Yoan Moncada #14 Manuel Margot #37 Henry Owens #48 Javier Guerra

Keith Law Updated Top 50 ... http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4096 #8. Rafael Devers #11 Yoan Moncada #14 Manuel Margot #37 Henry Owens #48 Javier Guerra