SoxFanForsyth
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Everything posted by SoxFanForsyth
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Man. You're not listening to me in the least. He would play 50-60 games in AAA. That's 200-250 AB in AAA. Not 100. Also - he's got a 94.7% Fielding Percentage, which is a horrible stat to look at because it's completely judgmental and biased depending on the scorekeepers mood. Do you realize that Ozzie Smith had a .943 F% in the minors? Or Iglesias had a .969 in the minors? a 2% bump? That's not that much considering Iglesias is a once in a lifetime glove. Omar Vizquel? .951 F% in the minors. Those are some pretty good gloves, wouldn't you think? Let's not get carried away by F%.
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It's more of a "I wouldn't be surprised if..." than an expected time of arrival, that's all. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if he's our SS in mid August. The rest of it is just kind of conversation/debate about how ready he is.
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Not at all. I'm saying it's very much a possibility that he OPS's over .900 in Pawtucket. And that would be plenty to make Drew expendable.
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Which part? Pawtucket int he coming days or Boston by August? There has actually been a lot of speculation about him going to Pawtucket int he coming days because of the SS hole voided by Iglesias.
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Not right now, I agree. But in August? Or if Drew is playing decently and you can get a reliever for him, or address another area of need? Yeah, its completely reasonable for that situation to arrive.
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1. If Iglesias becomes the utility guy in Boston (very likely), it opens up a hole at SS in Pawtucket. That would be a perfect scenario for Bogaerts to be promoted. 2. I said mid-August. Which would give Bogaerts ~50-60 games in AAA. That would translate to ~125-135 games between AA and AAA, which is precisely how many Middlebrooks had. 3. The calling for Middlebrooks to play 3B was well before Youkilis got hurt. I'm not sure how the scenarios are very different at all. I would be well beyond shocked if Bogaerts isn't promoted before mid June, likely once Middlebrooks gets activated and the Sox face a decision on Ciriaco and Iglesias.
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Not at all. I'm saying if he continues this run of dominance into AAA, then he could well be our starting shortstop in August, and that it wouldn't surprise me if he was. I'm not saying he's going to be, I'm simply saying it's a very real possibility. Maybe that's where there's a disconnect, and perhaps I didn't articulate it well in my original comment, I'll have to go back and look.
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No, but if you've got a top prospect in all of baseball who is killing it in AA and AAA (this is all under the assumption that he continues to hit after a promotion to Pawtucket), then your 1 year deal guy in Drew becomes expendable and you trade him.
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It would hurt because he could be the 2007 Ellsbury, or the 2012 Machado. The guy who pushes your team above the rest of a very tight division and wild card race.
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Well, for one thing, Iglesias is going to see an inevitable huge slump soon. His BABIP is over .500. So while he's capable, Bogaerts would be an upgrade by August. And Drew is fine, he's playing well, but if you've got a guy who can provide as good or better production than him, you don't hold him back for a player on a 1 year deal. You get what you can get for Drew on the market if Bogaerts is forcing his way on the scene. The upside that Bogaerts brings is insanely higher than Drew, and if he is having the same success in AAA as he's having in AA, you absolutely trade Drew and promote Bogaerts. Just look at Middlebrooks last year. Same situation. Youkilis wasn't hurt anymore, and Middlebrooks forced his way on the scene.
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How are any of these things items that keep him from the bigs? Defensively, that's certainly things he can sort out at the MLB level. He's played fine throughout his entire minor league career, there are very few concerns about his defense, in fact, he's been improving significantly according to all the reports I read. The biggest factor against him was size, which again, are you going to wait until he's 28 and filled out and say "ok now you can go to the bigs because we figured out what position you're going to play?" That's not even a comprehensible reason. Yes - we still need to see how he deals with AAA pitching but all indications are that he'll fare just fine. He's had incredible success at each level, and actually has had the most success in his career as he's supposed to be challenged the most (in AA). These are not good reasons to say it's silly to think he could be MLB ready by August.
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What do you think is holding him back from being MLB read in 2-2.5 months?
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This is a bit crazy. Bogaerts approach at 20 is as good as Ells and Pedroia at 22. Just because he's 20 doesn't mean that he's not ready. I would think that the past year has shown this to be true more than any I can remember. Look at Trout, Harper, Machado, Profar, Puig. If he's ready, you don't just sit on him because he's 20. I am not saying bring him to the Sox tomorrow. I'm saying take him to Pawtucket tomorrow. He does have a spot at Pawtucket, especially with Iglesias likely sticking as the UTIL guy.
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You do realize that he was promoted to AA last August, right? He's had 300 plate appearances in AA. That's plenty, and the success he's had shows that he's adjusted to their pitching and, frankly, isn't being challenged at all.
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He's had 300 PA in AA where he's hitting .315/.389/.538. That's a .926 OPS in 75 games. He's a guy they've been aggressive with in terms of promotions in the past. Pushing him to AAA right now isn't rushing him. Pushing him to the MLB level by August 1 may be rushing him, but you could always play Iggy at SS for 15-20 games and get Bogaerts an extra 75 AB in AAA, but I don't think that, contingent on his success at AAA, he will be starting at SS by mid August is rushing him. Look at Manny Machado. He had 109 games in AA where he didn't exactly light it up (.789 OPS) and he was promoted and did just fine, all while changing positions and playing at the age of 19 (in my estimation, Bogaerts will have 75 games in AA, 50 in AAA, so 125 games between AA and AAA, even more than Machado had at AA). Machado and Bogaerts are very similar talents.
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One other thing - Think about this - In 2014 and beyond, the Sox could have Middlebrooks and Bogaerts on the left side of their infield. That means the Sox could very easily get 60 HR out of the left side of their infield during a couple years. That's insane.
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You just said "he wasn't a top 10 prospect because they weren't sure if he'd stick at SS". I said "he's not a top 10 prospect if he doesn't play a premium position". Regardless, this is the most excited I've been about a prospect in a long, long time. I hope he gets the call to Pawtucket in the coming days, and is with the Red Sox by August. The Sox could very well call him up by this weekend, and then pull a 2010 where they don't do anything at the deadline, but call up a prospect and try to bring life to the Sox. Or they could trade Drew and let Bogaerts take the reins. He'd have ~150-200 PA in AAA by the trade deadline.
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Oye, we went over this. You know what I mean. If he isn't at a position where offense is at such a premium, he's not top 10. If he were a corner IF or corner OF, no.
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Which brings me to my original point. He's not a top 10 prospect if he's not a SS.
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Bogaerts now hitting .310 with a .914 OPS this year in AA. Overall line in AA as a 19/20 year old: .315 avg, .927 OPS, 11 HR in 292 PA. He's ready for AAA. And, if he continues to impress, he may make Drew expendable in July.
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I got savaged for calling him rotation depth
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Bogaerts went deep again today. He's 20.
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Never top 10 though
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Yes. That's what I should have said. If he played a position where power was not at a premium, he would not be a top prospect.
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Actually, if we scored 17 runs last night, tonight's thread should be titled '6/3 vs Texas' again
