SoxFanForsyth

I can definitely see the Ellsbury - Crawford - Pedey top 3. And, in all honesty, is there really that much difference between having Crawford bat 2nd and Pedey 3rd vs Pedey 2nd and Craw 3rd? I will admit, though, that right before Pedroia got hurt last year, when Francona was hitting him in the 3 hole, I really really liked that idea. It's not unreasonable to think Pedroia will hit 18-20 HR, and hitting behind Ells and Crawford, he could drive in 90-100. Here's my take on it, though. If you're dead set on hitting Pedey or Crawford 3rd, and you really can't go wrong with either of them, I would look at stats with RISP as the decision maker. Pedroia (2009, last healthy full season) .327/.418/.440/.858, 3 HR, 55 RBI. 150 AB's. Crawford (2010 obviously) .359/.400/.538/.938 2 HR, 63 RBI, 156 AB's. Like I said, you really can't go wrong either way, but I think Crawford may be the better option in the 3 slot. As far as the whole LOOGY vs your 3rd and 4th hitter (CC and Gonzo), well Gonzo last year hit .337 vs LHP, better than he did vs RHP, so a lefty specialist isn't going to be that effective against him, and if the biggest thing we're worried about is getting into the 8th or 9th inning and having Crawford - Gonzo - Youk up, and we're worried because they're bringing in a LOOGY, I think we're going to be fine. Gonzo's 2010 stats vs LHP .337/.424/.513/.937 8 HR, 33 RBI, 199 AB's. Youk's 2009 stats vs LHP .309/.435/.518/.953, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 139 AB's. So Gonzo hit lefties just as well as Youk hit lefties, so throwing a lefty vs Gonzo is going to be about as effective as throwing a lefty vs Youk.

...which will be 3rd. You're not going to move Pedroia from the 2 hole, and Francona has already said that he believes the line up is best with Ellsbury leading off. Pedroia is the best 2 hole hitter in the game - low strike outs, high walks, high on base, high average, high contact. No way Pedey gets moved. It's only logical that Pedroia hits in the 2 hole, which would mean Crawford 3, Gonzo 4. One thing I am a bit worried about is that Ortiz may have a bit of a fall off this year. His plate discipline is lacking, and he's going to have minimal protection behind him, which will allow pitchers to throw around him and he'll probably chase. The good thing about having him hit 6th, though, is that he provides Youk and ultimately Gonzo with protection. Man, though. Gonzo could be good for 45-50 HR and 140 RBI's this year hitting in front of Youk and behind Ells/Pedey/Crawford. And Youk, behind the 4 of them, could be in for 30-35 HR/120 RBI's.

Crawford is not going to hit first. He's always made it known that he doesn't want to hit first, and Francona made it clear that he felt the best line up he could put together has Ellsbury hitting first. In the event that Ellsbury needs to work back up to that leadoff spot (I don't foresee this happening, but if he starts slow and Francona wants to take the pressure off of him), I would imagine the line up going Pedey - Crawford - Gonzo. For anyone who is worried about the L-R-L-R-L-R rotation through the line up, I'm pretty sure that if our biggest weakness in our line up is going L-L with Crawford and Gonzo, we're going to be just fine.

Vs RHP Ellsbury - CF Pedroia - 2B Crawford - LF Gonzalez - 1B Youkilis - 3B Ortiz - DH Lowrie - SS Salty - C Drew - RF Hitting Crawford 3rd is the best of both worlds. He's got speed and pop. If he's on base, he is taking the focus off the hitter, which means there's a higher chance that Gonzo, Youk, or Ortiz gets one served up to him. If the pitcher chooses to focus on the hitter, Crawford is in scoring position immediately. I like Lowrie better than Scutaro at SS, he was crushing last year and had an OPS over .900. Drew will be a great 9 hole hitter as he has a very solid OBP (typically anywhere from .370 to .410 in 8 of the last 9 seasons). Vs LHP Ellsbury - CF Pedroia - 2B Crawford - LF Gonzalez - 1B Youkilis - 3B Ortiz - DH Lowrie - SS Salty - C Cam - RF Same basic principles. Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Crawford are all big run scorers who do NOT need to hit lower in the line up and get their stolen base opportunities (Ells and CC specifically) reduced because they are hitting behind slower runners. Crawford basically puts us in a position to have two number 2 hitters, which extends our line up and gives us much better scoring opportunities.