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It has been an awfully frustrating and rough offseason for Cashman. First the Jeter saga, then Lee signs with Philly, then Soriano gets signed by the Steinbrenners. I'm sure Cashman is pretty frustrated right now. He's doing well not to make any signings out of frustration. I heard he's still in charge of the Andruw Jones signing, so that's a good sign that he's still got backing from the FO.

Wow - Did anyone else see that Cashman announced, at Soriano's press conference no less, that he did not recommend the deal? I think everyone knew that he didn't, but I can't believe that he announced it publicly at the press conference.

What do you guys think? If Papelbon took a little velocity off of his fastball, and concentrated more on painting the corners with a 91-93 mph heater rather than missing a little more often with a 95-96 mph fastball, would that make him more or less effective? Seems like last year he was trying to throw so hard that often times he was overthrowing and missing his spots, leaking fastballs over the middle of the plate, getting in hitters counts which in turn made his splitter less effective because hitters could sit dead red and wait on a mistake pitch rather than be overly aggressive and chase something out of the zone. Or - it could be that at 91-93 would be a bit too hittable, especially since Pap's fastball is pretty straight, and his location would have to be too perfect, and when he missed even slightly, he would get hit harder than he does when he pumps it up. Thoughts?

My point is that you basically told me that I don't follow baseball because I mentioned that the Yankees would be better off with Pavano in the 5th spot of their rotation. Well. Both sides were at least interested, so I don't see how you could have been so confident. As for the Papelbon discussion - if he signs with another team, was it "not going to happen, didn't happen"? Because that's basically the same discussion we're having here. We're basically having the exact same argument from opposite sides on two different players, so I guess we're both guilty for the same thing.

The stars would basically have to align just right for the Sox to resign Papelbon. I think they would explore other options first if Jenks AND Bard both didn't work out, and Papelbon would have to have 2008 type numbers. The odds of Jenks and Bard both having years so off target that the Sox lose confidence in them, paired with Papelbon completely fixing his problem and posting a 2008-esque year, combined with the other relief pitchers in the market not working out a deal with the Sox is so tiny that it's near impossible. Maybe I wasn't clear enough in my posts. I think there is virtually no way in hell that all of the above happens, which is why I think it is virtually impossible for Papelbon to resign with the Sox. Sorry for getting so heated, too. Got a little aggravated.

Again, same exact thing I posted on my original argument, but I'll post it here again. 11:58am: Pavano seriously considered returning to the Yankees, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Yankees explored a one-year, high-salary deal with Pavano before the Twins offered a second year. Hm. That kind of does discount that he said he would never go back. Hm. That kind of does sound like more than a "Hey, Pavano" "Nope". It's ok to show a little bit of humility every once in a while. Don't worry, I won't tell anyone. Oh - and the fact that you insinuated that it would be the most outrageous idea in the world, and that only someone who didn't follow baseball would even consider the name Pavano and Yankees together again? Well, that is where you are being foolish.

I've already said that if Jenks and Bard don't pan out, THEN Papelbon could be resigned. It's not based independently on Papelbon's performance. It's also based on the performances of those around him. Damn. Read my posts dude.

The whole "No matter how much you stomp and scream". Why would I stomp and scream? Because I don't want him back? And why don't I want him back? According to you, because I don't like him. That's where it was in your previous post.

RIGHT f***ING THERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!! READ THROUGH YOUR OWN POSTS BEFORE YOU ASK IF I'VE READ THROUGH THEM!!!!!

He may not be a great option for the Yankees, but is Mitre a great option for the Yankees? Pavano is a better pitcher than Mitre is, that's not debatable. That's what I was getting at with my original post. Don't be so condescending when someone's opinion differs from yours and maybe you won't look so foolish when reports like this come out.

11:58am: Pavano seriously considered returning to the Yankees, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Yankees explored a one-year, high-salary deal with Pavano before the Twins offered a second year. Huh. That's crazy. I guess I'm not such a f***ing idiot after all, eh Dipre? Crazy how someone else could have an opinion that differs from yours and be right.

Wow. That's all I can say. Apparently you have it set in your mind that the only reason I think the Sox aren't going to sign Papelbon to another contract is because I don't like him. For someone who constantly gripes about people not reading his comments, you sure appear to have not read any of mine. I'm not even going to address that any further because you can go back to a number of my posts and see why I think it would be a bad move to sign Papelbon to another contract, regardless of his 2011 stats. You really, honestly think that the Sox are going to consider signing Papelbon to a 3/$36mm contract if he comes back and puts up 2008 type numbers? That's crazy when Zumaya (if he bounces back from injury, could be a fantastic 8th inning guy for Bard/Jenks), Valverde, Broxton, Bell, Gonzalez, possibly Soriano if he opts out, Matt Capps, etc are all available, plus you've got internal options that would come at a fraction of the cost. No possible way that the Sox spend $12mm on Papelbon for 3 more years after his recent decline. If he was putting up 2008 numbers consistently for the past 2 years, I'd say ok. But that would be a huge risk to assume that Papelbon would come back and be worth $12mm per year for the next 3 years.

Scenario A: Paps prices himself out of the Red Sox, the Sox don't need Papelbon with Bard and Jenks. The only way this happens is if Bard gets hurt and Jenks implodes. Also - The Sox would be more likely to spend bigger on a DH with versatility than Papelbon, as well as a 5th man in the rotation to take over for DiceK, depending on Doubront, Britton, and Ranaudo's 2011 success. Scenario B: This would be the 3rd consecutive mediocre year for Papelbon, and the Sox, after just the 2nd mediocre year, showed their willingness to depart from him when they gave Jenks a deal that outlasts Papelbon's contract and includes closer incentives, plus offering Mo a 3 year deal. A 3rd consecutive mediocre year would mean Bard, Jenks, or FA market for the 2012 closer. Scenario C: Probably the most viable option. Beltre's knees, however, have been downgraded to a Weapon of Mass Destruction, as stated by President Obama on 11.7.10.

You still haven't supplied a single example of when a Papelbon signing is even remotely considered. If he has a 2008 type year, and demands a paycut and a 1 year deal? That's basically what you're insinuating would have to happen. That's crazy. Please, explain how this deal will get done. What has to happen in 2011 for Papelbon and what kind of a contract would the Sox consider?

Two questions to answer here. 1. Do you think, if Papelbon does put up 2008 type numbers, that he will be willing to take a significant pay cut or go year to year? 2. If Papelbon puts up 2010 type numbers, would you want him back? The answer to both of these questions is no. Papelbon has clearly stated that he wants to pave the way for future closers in terms of money, and if he puts up 2008 type numbers, he's going to demand a multi year deal with an AAV of 10-12mm. If you want to commit $20-30mm to a closer when we have Bard and Jenks ready to take the ball, then I think you and Theo are on two different pages.

By the way - This is something that I've thought of during the season last year and forgot to mention. Now this may just be coincidence, but it seems as though it has a little bit of weight to it. In 2009, from Opening Day to May 12th, Papelbon posted a 1.20 ERA and had 9 saves in 15 IP. From May 13th - the end of the season, Papelbon posted a 2.04 ERA (not including the ALDS). Fantastic numbers, but somewhat of a drop. Fast forward to 2010. He posts a 3.90 ERA. Blows 8 saves, had a bad season. So what changed? On May 13th, 2009, a guy named Daniel Bard came up. Throwing straight gas, touching 100, making Papelbon's pitches look like they're about 90. I'm not saying that's the reason for Pap's recent struggles, but it's something to think about. Obviously they rarely face the same hitters, but it could cause players timing to get a bit better on Pap's stuff.

This makes no sense. The Sox will not sign Papelbon if he has another year like 2010. If Papelbon has another year like 2008, he'll be signing for a big dollar, multi year contract, which the Sox will not want to do since they can save money internally or on the market. So under what circumstances will the Sox sign him? Papelbon has better odds of repeating his 2008 performance than the Sox re-signing him.

My like or dislike for him has nothing to do with the fact that he has had subpar numbers the past 2 seasons with normalized BABIP numbers. Like I said earlier in the Sox Predictions thread. He either A - Has a monster year, and then he would no longer be available at a reasonable price or contract, or B - has a sub par year like last year, and why would the Sox want to give him another chance after another year like his 2010 campaign?? I see no evidence that it is even plausible that he comes back. What am I not looking at, since I'm apparently stomping my feet and screaming? My dislike for Papelbon has absolutely no weight in my opinion that Papelbon is gone after this year. The past 2 seasons, however, do. And the options coming out of next season do too. What are the "right conditions" for him to come back? A 2008-esque season, followed by a 2 year/12mm contract?? That's not going to happen. Plain and simple.

I don't know if they would CC you on any memo's regarding the future of players. I kind of doubt they would. I'm pretty sure they have had internal discussions regarding Papelbon and his future with the Red Sox. Unless they said "We're giving Papelbon $12mm in 2011", nobody knew for sure if he would get $12mm, but that's exactly what happened. He got $12mm. Why? Because it was obvious that was the number they would get to. I'm not sure if you want a billboard outside of your bedroom window that says "Papelbon will become a FA in 2012", but offering closer incentive deals that outlasts Papelbon's contract, exploring trade options for Papelbon, and offering a 3 year deal to a rival closer is some pretty hard evidence that Papelbon's career with the Red Sox is done after 2011. It seems like you are just being stubborn because you personally want him back, and aren't thinking rationally about the subject.

I think the FO has made it blatantly clear that they are done with Papelbon when they offered Mo a 3 year deal and then gave Jenks a 2 year deal with closer incentives. If the FO does anything, they will be more likely to transition Bard into the closer role in 2011 and 2012 with Pap around in 2011 and Jenks around in 2012 to assist with the transition.

I think we all expected this, or at least around this number. If it makes you feel any better, he got a 50% raise from 09-10, and only a 28% raise from 10-11, even though it was still close to 3mm both times. Overpayment for sure, though.