A baseball GM is allowed to take risks, but all three of these moves would be relatively big risks. Some are big in prospects/money, and others are in going into 2013 with a huge hole in their roster.
The problem with Tulo is that he has an insanely expensive contract, and at 28 years old, he's only averaged about 118 games per season. Ellsbury averages 110. If we're going to give 200 million to a guy who is hurt all the time, why not just pay our own guy, keep Bogaerts, and go for someone else?