Palodios
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Everything posted by Palodios
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Mr. Pipe Dream himself dissing a very likely scenario? Do I need to point out the facts? 1) At the end of 2013, Felix is signed for one more year. No options. 2) Seattle has been constantly trying to lock up Felix, but Hernandez has shown no indication that he is open to it. 3) Felix costs 20 million a year on a mid-salary team. 4) With the fences being brought in, Felix will probably see a few fly balls turn into home runs, and his value may start to diminish. Not significantly, but enough to drop his price tag from "untouchable" to "Only-if-you-overpay". 5) The Red Sox need an ace badly, and are going to be one of the teams willing to shell out 25-30 million a year at 7 years AND high-tier prospects for one. At some point, Seattle is going to see the end of their ace, and that will probably be at the end of the 2013 season. They might as well cash in while they can.
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By all means, the Red Sox will need to add prospects of their own, but I see this trade deadline as a big opportunity to close the gap. We would be looking at a sell-high situation. In 2011, Ellsbury was a MVP candidate, Hanrahan was an elite closer, Napoli had a 1.000 OPS. Stephen Drew is one of a small handful of quality shortstops in the league. Teams desperate for a World Series are willing to give one, maybe two top 100 prospects for each of those guys, if performing at peak levels. Not all of those guys will be, but it is very likely that they could pull in 3 top prospects from that group alone.
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By competitive, I mean a 80-85 win team. What benefit would there be in a complete rebuild anyway? Stripping the team of talent would be more trouble than its worth. Ellsbury has more trade value midseason than right now, so that's why he's still here. Lester too. Pedroia, Middlebrooks, and Buchholz aren't going anywhere. By signing players on short term deals, those players become trade pieces midseason, and in the long run actually help the rebuilding process.
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I worded that poorly. Ellsbury, Drew, etc will be trade chips this season.... to pull in prospects which will then be used the following offseason.
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The Red Sox didn't like any of the pitching options available this year, and are keeping the team competitive until better pitching becomes available on the market in one or two years down the road. I believe they will make a very big run at Felix Hernandez in the next year or two. They have the financial flexibility, and the prospects. If this turns into another bridge year, then players like Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli etc are all going to be big trade chips this season.... which will bring in prospects to be shipped to Seattle a year later.
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You're hiding the statistics. In 2011, Lester pitched 3.77 with Salty.... In 2011, Lester pitched 2.80 ERA with everyone else. Buchholz pitched 62 innings with Salty, not 80. That's a pretty small sample. Considering that Buchholz can pitch to a sub 3 ERA at his best, I'm not convinced by this.
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Here are some statistics that Bellhorn found a few weeks ago. Maybe some pitchers do well with Salty, but the two pitchers that truly matter do not. Lester with Shoppach 3.70 48.2 innings Lester with Salty 5.62 107.1 innings Buch with Shoppach 3.23 78 innings Buch with Salty 6.30 75.2 innings
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So I know this probably was completely missed... but the Red Sox signed Breslow to a two year, 6 million dollar deal. Breslow was going to be a free agent going into the 2014 season, so they bought out a year of his free agency. They probably figured it is always good to hold onto a consistent left handed reliever.
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Well, he is playing in Oakland after all. 32 home runs again may be a stretch-- not many players hit that many nowadays-- but 20-25 lines up well with his minor league numbers.
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Reddick had a great first half, and a bad second half, so his numbers looked a lot like they did in the minors. .240 average, .300 OBP, lots of power, lots of strikeouts, excellent defense. I don't see that being unusual for him the years ahead.
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Reddick has plenty of talent to work with. Salty is a one tool player. He can't throw, he can't catch, he can't call games, he sucks on the base paths, he can't hit for average, he can't get on base. Hell, he doesn't even hit that many doubles, just home runs. If you took away that one statistic from him, and looked at what he is... I doubt he would be good enough to play at AAA.
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Whoever underperforms gets pushed to a longman spot until someone gets hurt. Because someone will get hurt.
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Outside of the Angels, what team is significantly better than the Rays? Yankees? Blue Jays? The Rangers lost Hamilton, Napoli and Young. The Athletics lost Gomes, Mccarthy, and Drew, and were really a longshot last year anyway. The Mariners made a few solid additions, but they're still a mediocre team. And the Astros?
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I am more interested in Marcum, personally. I just don't understand why the Red Sox aren't more concerned about Lackey. It seems to happen every year... a player gets hurt, loses an entire season, and when they come back, they need time to become a major league pitcher again. Remember Buchholz last year? Beckett on odd years? It happened to Daisuke before he completely lost it. Giving Lackey some time against live bats makes sense.
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I've answered this same exact question from you in another thread. Even if Napoli stays healthy, we're looking at 9 million. The Red Sox have a number of trade pieces that could be catapaulted to pull them under. Ellsbury at 1/9 million, Salty at 1/4.5, Drew at 1/10 million, several expensive bullpen arms. Dempster and Lackey may end up tradeable midseason. So could Gomes. There is a significant amount of flexibility on the roster.
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Alex Speier updated his payroll projections for the Red Sox. They are still a whopping 17 million under the luxury tax. I bet they still have one more move in them. Marcum? http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2013/01/17/still-money-to-spend-red-sox-payroll-2013-15/
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Lohse is a strange story. I thought the same exact thing about him for a long time, until I realized... he sucked in the NL too. Lohse may be an example of a guy who turned the corner at a very late age. I'm not suggesting they give him a ton of money, but if he is getting desperate and could be had for a one or two year deal? Worth a look.
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Lackey never spent any time in the minor leagues, did he? They could hold off on taking him off the DL. When he is forced to return, whoever sucks to start the season gets pushed to the pen until someone gets injured.
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Did you know that C-cups were originally named after Cherrington?
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The Red Sox have publicly stated that if they are in a playoff hunt, they don't care about exceeding the luxury tax a little bit. If they aren't in the hunt, Salty, Ellsbury, Drew, Dempster, Gomes and Napoli are all on one/two year deals so they can definitely bring it back down.
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Saunders, Marcum and Lohse absolutely will not. Pavano, Vazquez, Jurrjens, Wood, Braden? They're probably a different story. The Red Sox are the absolute perfect place for a high ceiling pitcher to be in the minor leagues: High exposure? Check. High level of injury from starting staff, and potential to be promoted? Check. High salary for minor contracts? Check. Potential to reach the playoffs? Check... even if it may be a longshot.
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Francona Co-writes book with Shaughnessy
Palodios replied to Palodios's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
He has a guaranteed spot in the Red Sox hall of fame. No reason to burn too many bridges. -
Honestly, I don't think any upgrade over Nava is going to help this much anywhere as much as an upgrade in the rotation. Assuming Upton is out of the picture, the next options aren't pretty. The Sox wanted Jones in the Hanrahan deal and were turned away. Hairston is the next guy on the list. With the price he is asking for, I would much rather stick with Nava, and add some quality pitching depth. Marcum and Lohse would be nice, but Jurrjens, Pavano, Vasquez, Oswalt, Saunders are still out there as well. I'm still okay with longshots like Braden, and Wood getting minor league contracts as well. And Brian Wilson won't be available till mid-season, but could you imagine that bullpen?
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I would be surprised if he caught a single game for the Red Sox in the first half of 2013. They have three other catching options that they like quite a bit, even if one is a tall turd. Napoli's bat is too valuable to risk his health.
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Crazy day. Red Sox get Napoli for 5 million. Red Sox pay Salty 4.5 million in arbitration. What a rip off for a guy who had a .270 OBP and can't play defense.
