redsoxfan3

That is from the Twitter of Jared Carrabis. Now before anyone gets on me about this, I know he is not Buster Olney, Ken Rosenthal, Nick Cafardo, etc., but he has been right about stuff like this in the past. He has a lot of inside connections with the Red Sox. I am assuming that we might have a one year contract with Napoli and maybe an option for the 2nd year? That would make sense to me. Or maybe it is a two year contract with the option for a 3rd. Either way, I think something will be resolved soon with Napoli. Maybe they have agreed to terms and are waiting until Monday to announce it.

It seems like a lot of people really want Morse. I know the Napoli deal is taking forever, but don't set yourself up for disappointment if we do not trade for him. I have not seen much between the Red Sox stating interest in Mike Morse, unlike I have for the Yankees and other teams. Do you really want Mike Morse over Mike Napoli? Or do you just want Mike Morse if the Napoli deal falls through? Both are fairly comparable players in terms of offense. Morse has one season of playing 146 games and the rest of his career have been 102 games or less. Napoli has one 140 game season and the rest of his career have been 114 or less. Morse is 30 and Napoli is 31. Morse has had the better average for his career. Napoli has the advantage in terms of OBP. That says a lot, especially since Morse has .036 better batting average and Napoli still has a .009 advantage in OBP. That mean Morse does not walk nearly as much as Napoli. They are identical for career OPS+. Over the last five years, Napoli has had five 20+ HR seasons. Morse has only had one 20+ HR season in his career. I wouldn't mind if we get Morse if the Napoli deal falls through, but I only want to try to get Morse if we do not sign Napoli. We would only get Morse for one year, and would likely have to give up one of Morales or Miller and a propsect. At the same time, we don't have to give up anything other than cash for Napoli. From the offensive standpoint, I would rather have Napoli who has the better career OBP and very comparable power numbers, which Napoli has more career HR's and RBI's.

I don't like the idea of Ells batting 3rd. I think he can be successful there, but I like him as our leadoff. Also, I would prefer Ortiz batting cleanup and Napoli batting 5th. This is the lineup that I like more. Pedroia has proven he can hit 3rd. I like him batting 2nd more, but I think we would be fine with this lineup. I also have seen batting order projections of: Ellsbury Pedroia Ortiz Napoli Middlebrools Victorino Gomes/Kalish Ross/Lavarnway/Salty Drew

I agree with you there about LaRoche, but I do know that he probably would have signed in Boston if we offered him three years. I am glad we didn't. I don't know the seriousness of the discussions between both sides, but it was reported that they were talking. The draft pick was a big thing. Like I said, I would be surprised at this point if we do not get Napoli. I am interested in seeing who we could trade for to play 1B, but I am just preparing for us signing Napoli. I am just hoping that he can get back to playing around 140 games again like he did in 2010, especially if he is not catching that much. His 2011 numbers were ridiculous. He played 113 games and had 30 HR's, 75 RBI's, and a slash line of .320/.414/.631. My expectations are not as much for him in terms of his slash line, but I think if he can play 130-140 games that the 30 HR's and 75 RBI's are not unrealistic. If he can have a slash line around his career averages of .259/.356/.507 and an OPS of .863, while putting up 25-30 HR's and 70+ RBI's, then I will be extremely happy. Now it is a question mark if he can do that, but that type of production is what we need.

There are reports that the Red Sox are hopeful for a deal. Now I know that means that we are not 100% guaranteed to sign Napoli, but maybe there is a lot of confidence in a deal more than anyone is reporting. LaRoche wanted a 3 year deal and caved in to taking two years from the Nats. One of the only other teams he was talking to was the Red Sox. I think it is logical to speculate that he might have caved in for two years from the Nats because he gave up hope of getting three years from the Red Sox the day after it was announced that the Red Sox are hopeful things will work out with Napoli. I would be surprised at this point if the Napoli deal falls through. I think one of the sides would have given up by now if they did not think it would work out. Now if for some reason the deal does not work out, then I think we have to start thinking about trade ideas for Morse or Morneau.

I think that when we sign Napoli for sure, then we will hear more trade talk about Salty, unless the FO keeps Lavarnway in AAA. Napoli will be catching on occasion. The other time is split equally between Ross and Salty/Lavarnway. The longer the Napoli signing takes, I think the more likely we are to keep Salty. I think we still have around 6 or so weeks until pitchers and catchers report. We need to finalize Napoli's deal and trade for Saltt in that time.

They have spent a lot of money because they are paying higher AAV to get players to come here on shorter contracts. I do like the philosophy of signing short contracts, while not having to give up draft picks. You do bring up a good point. We did not go out and get Hamilton or Greinke, but at least we improved our team over the AAAA team that we fielded at the end of last year. I think we will be better than the 69 win team that we had last year, but I don't think anyone can say for sure if the "quality" of players that we signed this year will make us a playoff team. It is hard to say. Cherington could really get scrutinized after this season for not signing good enough players if we are a complete circus this year, or he could get praised for having a team that surprised a lot of people without signing the best FA's.

With Lohse and Marcum still available, what are the chances that we can land either of the two? I know we have been linked to Lohse back during the Winter Meetings, but I am not so sure if that is the case after signing Dempster. I think Lohse or Marcum as the #4 would be better than having both Doubront and Lackey as the #4 and #5. If we do sign Lohse or Marcum, does that mean that we trade Doubront? I think we are going to make some trades before the offseason is over, especially if we sign Napoli. Salty will probably be on the block, along with Doubront (easier to trade than Lackey for obvious reasons), and a couple relievers due to our surplus in the bullpen. I personally would love us to sign one of Lohse or Dempster and have Lester, Buchholz, Dempster, Lohse or Marcum as our top four starters, with Lackey and Doubront battling out the 5th spot. The only problem is that between Lackey and Doubront, the one that does not make the rotation is the odd man out. We have a surplus of relievers as it is. I know Doubront could probably go to AAA, but I don't think he should be there. That is why I think we can get more value out of him in a trade. What kind of return could we get back for Doubront, Salty, and a couple of relievers? Maybe a LH to platoon in LF with Gomes that will be an upgrade over Kalish or Nava. There are plenty of possibilities and I am sure the FO is exploring everything they possibly can.

Morneau is not a bad option. If Napoli falls through and LaRoche signs in D.C., then I all for trading for Morneau over having Mauro Gomez take over at 1B.

I thought Gomes was going to platoon in LF with Kalish or Nava. Isn't Victorino taking over RF this year? I do agree though, they are comparable.

I agree with that, but I think right now he is a question mark.

Wilson is a question mark. If Hanrahan can fix his control problems, I think he is more reliable than Wilson. I think Wilson will bounce back and be a solid late inning reliever somewhere, but did not have to give up a whole lot to get Hanrahan. We gave up a ship wreck in Melancon, an unproven Sands, a prospect that has taken a step back n Pimentel, and a career AAAA utility guy in DeJesus. I think we were fortunate to get Hanrahan for that bunch. Those guys in a package deal could probably not be used to bring more return than Hanrahan. Who did you have in mind for us to go after with that package? I think we still might not be out of the Brian Wilson sweepstakes. It is probably not likely that we sign him, but I would not completely count him out. I could see us signing him if we really want to trade Bailey. Our pen is pretty much set, but you never know for sure if an opportunity arises.

That is a rumor floating around, but all it is is a rumor. The Sox still want Napoli as plan A and LaRoche and a couple of other guys are their backup plans. They still want Napoli, but they are keeping options open just in case. LaRoche wants three years, but that might be too many years. There is speculation that they are talking to LaRoche to put pressure on Washington and on Napoli. They want Napoli to agree to their terms and LaRoche wants to show Washington that other teams are interested. That is not necessarily the case. Hr wants what was already offered to him. If the deal falls through, then I think he would take a shorter contract eith another team. I think he is going to do whatever it takes to keep his 3 year deal in Boston, and if it falls through, then sign a shorter contract elsewhere.

I agree with you. The Bard experiment was either going to be a true success or a complete failure. It turned out as a complete failure. It threw him off to the point that he cannot even pitch effectively enough to be a solid reliever like he was prior to 2012. I want to hold out hope for Bard and have read where some believe he can turn things around, but I do not have much hope. The positive is that we now have Hanrahan, Bailey, Tazawa, and Uehara as the late-inning relievers, so I do not think that having Bard as a solid late inning reliever matters a whole lot. Although, if he can regain form, this bullpen will be that much better. Aceves is another huge concern.

I would be thrilled if he could become an ace. I did read that he has the potential to be a number 3 starter. I would be happy if he is a solid #3. I did not see the interview about what Keith Law said. If that is true, then I hope that is accurate. Of course, he has a lot to prove if that is the case. I have read multiple scouting reports saying he has the potential to be a middle of the rotation guy, or with minimal improvement a late-inning reliever. Either way, if he turns into a solid set-up man or a solid #3, I think that will be a success. The ace would be awesome, though.

I think if Pedroia is healthy, that he has the chance to be a top 10 MVP candidate. Last year on May 12, he was hitting .321 through the first 33 games. That average started to drop when he had a thumb problem. He dealt with the thumb problem and we weren't even aware of it until July. It was clearly evident that something was wrong because he was under performing. His batting average was extremely low at .262 in August when he was still trying to be a superhero and play through his injury. He was able to bring that average up .022 in two months when he was finally healthy and finished the season at .290. If he can get back to playing 150+ games and being 100% the whole year, I think his slash line could be .310/.375/.470. I also am going to predict that if he is healthy all year that he will finish with 20 HR's and 100 RBI's. That would be a career high in RBI's, but I think he will have a strong year if he is healthy. I am going to say that he has an OPS of around .860 and an OPS+ of 130. These may not seem all that bold because he has achieved a lot of these before, but if he is healthy, I think these are realistic. The only problem is for him staying healthy because of the way he plays. I think he will have to have a great year to help lead this team. I am going to make predictions with the starting pitching, since it is the biggest area of concern. Jon Lester: 33 starts, 210 IP, 3.65 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, record of 18-8 Clay Buchholz: 30 starts, 190 IP, 3.80 ERA, 1.300 WHIP, record of 16-8 Ryan Dempster: 30 starts, 185 IP, 4.10 ERA, 1.330 WHIP, record of 14-10 Felix Doubront: 28 starts, 170 IP, 4.25 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, record of 12-10 John Lackey: 26 starts, 160 IP, 4.35 ERA, 1.4100 WHIP, record of 11-10 *Projections for Morales and Aceves as a starter Franklin Morales: 10 starts, 58 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, record of 4-3 Alfredo Aceves: 5 starts, 31 IP, 4.30 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, record of 2-1 Record from SP's is 77-50. I am going to predict that we will be 86-76 and finishing in third place in the AL East. Final AL East standings: Jays (AL East champs) Yankees (Wild Card) Red Sox Rays Orioles

I agree with this. I don't really think anyone has a case with it being anything but a salary dump. Punto was a throw-in. Gonzalez, Beckett, and Crawford had contracts that totaled 364 million over the life of those contracts. Obviously all of that money was not owed to them because of years and time already played, but those are still very large contracts, which is the reason why it is considered a salary dump. We did get some decent prospects in return, but to argue anything other than the fact that we dumped a lot of salary is far from the truth. That was the main reason. We lost a three time All-Star and two time top 10 Cy Young candidate in Beckett, we lost a four time All-Star and three time Gold Glove winner in Gonzalez, and a four time All-Star and one time Gold Glove winner in Crawford. Obviously there were power concerns with Gonzalez, under performance and health concerns with Crawford, and clubhouse and under performance concerns with Beckett. But, that is still a lot to replace. We did not trade away those guys because we were blown away by a trade from the Dodgers. We won the trade in terms of getting rid of a bunch of salary and still receiving prospects like Webster and De La Rosa. The Dodgers won that trade by present value impact players. A change of scenery will be good for those guys. The Dodgers got a 2.93 ERA from Beckett in seven starts. Gonzalez is a Gold Glove caliber 1B with a decent bat for them. They will be getting a healthy Crawford when he comes back. That in itself is enough to say that this was a salary dump. If we did it solely based on fairness of trade value without any financial impact, then we lost this trade. It is only fair to say this was a salary dump. This was a big thing for us in financial flexibility. We were able to go out and sign Uehara, trade for Hanrahan, sign Napoli (assuming that we officially sign him), sign Victorino, sign Gomes, sign Drew, and sign Ross because of the financial flexibility that this trade gave us. We would not be able to make all of those signings without this trade. We might have been able to make the trade for Hanrahan, but DeJesus and Sands were both used in the trade for Hanrahan. I know that you think that De La Rosa is going to be a reliever, but he still has potential to be a back-end of the rotation starter. I am not giving up hope on that just yet, but if anything, he still might be a decent reliever. Webster was the big prospect we got back. Even if projections have him as a middle to back-end of the rotation starter. I am sure plenty of people will be happy if he can become a reliable three or four starter. No one is expecting him to be an ace.

I never really heard anything good about DeJesus, so if Holt is an upgrade over DeJesus like you say, then that makes this trade better. DeJesus was expendable, that is for sure. I would be okay with that. Although, I think Bailey will be a nice bullpen piece for us this year. I would love for him to drop some weight and get into better shape. He could be a really good set-up man if he gets back to the way he was in Oakland. We have Tazawa, Bailey, Uehara, and Hanrahan as our late inning relievers. That is a very solid group. Our pen will look even better if Bard can become an elite reliever, have Miller pitch like he did last year, and have Aceves get back to the way he was for us in 2011. Not to mention we still have Breslow and Morales as options in the pen. Our pen is going to be a big strength for us. Also, if any team can afford to put Iglesias in the linep, it is the Tigers. They will be getting plenty of offensive contribution from Hunter, Fielder, Cabrera, and Martinez (assuming Victor will be ready to go, which I have not heard).

I don't really want Morales in the rotation, but I am all for having him as a swing man/depth option. He proved that he is capable of starting last year. I am not saying that I want him as a full-time starter or that he would be a consistent starter, but if someone gets hurt, at least we have a better depth option than Zach Stewart or Aaron Cook. I am still very interested in seeing if they are going to try to stretch out Aceves this Spring to give him a shot at a starting role. If we do not get another starter, then I would not mind having Morales, Doubront, Lackey, and Aceves all fighting for the 4th and 5th spots. Doubront and Lackey are the favorites to win the positions, but having Aceves and Morales ready to start if needed would only help this team out. We do not need Aceves as a late-inning reliever because of our current bullpen. We could use him in a position similar to 2011. It would not hurt one bit to increase the competition in the rotation and have some flexibility. Aceves and Morales could both be used as depth options for the rotation and as LR's or MR's in the pen. Aceves' attitude is a big concern, but I do not think it will be as a big of a problem with Farrell leading the pack. Of course, all of this is irrelevant if Lester, Dempster, and Buchholz cannot live up to expectations. We are going to be successful based on their performance, in my opinion. Also, has anyone heard anything about De La Rosa lately? I am assuming he is going to be in camp. I doubt he would make the rotation, but it would be a nice surprise if he takes the next step and can compete for the rotation and surprise some people. Of course, I might be getting way ahead of myself.

I always was under the impression that it was a salary dump. I never really thought anything more of it, other than we got a 1B who could fill-in for the time being in Loney until the end of the year. We got Webster, DeJesus, Sands, Loney, and De La Rosa and freed up some money. We got some decent prospects in return. I was interested in seeing what Sands could do, but he is still unproven. If Hanrahan has a solid year and we can sign him to another contract at the end of the year, I think this trade will even be that much better. We basically gave up a disappointment in Melancon, an unproven Sands, a prospect who has taken a step back in Pimentel, and an expendable utility player for an All-Star closer and another utility player/prospect. I am not disappointed at all about that. I think the trade was fair. Melancon is better off in the NL. We did not lose any top prospects or impact players, and we received one in return. Webster and De La Rosa are still good prospects. I still do not mind the Dodgers trade. I still wish we had Gonzalez, but that was probably the only way we could have gotten rid of both Beckett and Crawford. The positive is that we have both of the two big prospects from that deal in Webster and De La Rosa, who could potentially be decent starters in the future.

Don't really agree with you or know what you are trying to say. If you are a "heavy bomber," then I do not think it matters what park you play in. You say that Fenway is "best to righthanded line drive hitters with solid contact ability." You can hit line drives in any park and be successful. Fenway is actually one of the only parks where you can hit a high pop fly to LF and have it carry over the Green Monster, where it might still be in play in some other ballparks that are deeper than Fenway. You have to get the ball high enough to hit it over the Green Monster. A line drive hitter is always good, but sometimes a line drive in Fenway might be a shot off of the Green Monster, where as it could be a homer in another park if it is hit far enough in a park with a shorter fence. I think Napoli will benefit from Fenway since he is RH. I think park factors will be helpful for him. Some routine popups that he might hit in other parks could possibly be hit off of the Green Monster. I certainly do not think park factors will hurt him at all and could be a reason he could become a successful hitter in Boston.

I am aware of that. Just saying I would rather give up Nava than Kalish, anyone would. Maybe Melancon, Nava, Sands, and Pimentel for Jones and Hanrahan? That is a steal for us. They get Melancon who has had success in the NL and has some upside. They get Sands who has some potential and is not a FA until 2019. Pimentel used to be a top prospect in Boston, but has taken a step back. Nava is a throw in just so Pittsburgh has another OF in the deal. Not a fair trade, but I would take it anyday. Jones is not a FA until 2016.

Iglesias is not in the deal according to the reports. I would rather give up Nava than Kalish, if it came down to an outfielder.

I doubt that is the case. They are just working on figuring out the other players. It has been reported that the trade is going to get done, but just after Christmas. Sands and Pimentel are the two players that are headed to Pittsburgh. Melancon is likely the third. We are just not sure about the 2nd player coming back to Boston and the 4th player going to the Pirates. I guess that may be a logical scenario, but I just don't think that is the case. Exactly. They have to think that this Napoli deal is going to get done. We just watched Swisher sign with the Guardians. LaRoche is likely to sign with the Nats. Sands is headed to Pittsburgh. Sands was a guy who would have been an internal option to compete with Gomez.

I agree. The J.D. Drew contract took 50+ days and we still got it done. I am sure that Cherington would have given up by now if he thoyght it was not going to to work. Especially with trading an internal option in Sands, seeing Swisher sign with the Guardians, anf LaRoche close to signing again in D.C. Tbat would leave us with Gomez and maybe Salty getting the opportunity at 1B.