Here's how hitters fare against him with the bases empty/men on broken down by hits, 2B, 3B, HR and BB, while also examining K%:
Bases clear:
23.04% H
5.37% BB
3.0% HR
4.96% 2B
0.55% 3B
22.88 K%
Men on base:
24% H
7.42% BB
3.12% HR
4.44% 2B
0.52% 3B
19.56% K
Pitchers with similar career FIP to Vasquez' 3.83 career OPS with bases clear/men on.
AJ Burnett: 3.83 (.667/714=- +47)
Bases Clear:
20.58% H
9.57% BB
2.25% HR
3.68% 2B
0.31% 3B
22.09% K
Men on base:
20.94% H
10.39% BB
2.09% HR
4.75% 2B
0.52 % 3B
21.74% K
John Lackey: 3.83 (.700/750= +50)
Bases clear:
24.32% H
4.84% BB
2.26% HR
4.89% 2B
0.37% 3B
18.91% K
Men on base:
23.19% H
7.39% BB
2.52 % HR
4.22% 2B
0.33% 3B
18.77% K
After a thorough analysis of each of these pitchers (who happen to have the same career FIP) i'll expose the flaw both in the formula for Vasquez' case, and the reason why his "sterling" peripherals haven't translated into success when trying to accomplish a pitcher's main objective: Keeping runs off the board.
First off, a look at FIP:
(HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB )*3-K*2)/IP
The formula looks to "Find out how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well the fielders fielded", and the premise in correct in most cases, but it assumes a pitcher always pitches in a context-neutral environment (i.e: bases empty) and fails to account for an abnormal career trend such as Vasquez, more on this following:
Every pitcher has a tendency to pitch slightly worse when pitching from the stretch, however, if you compare statistics from the three above pitchers, you'll notice that Vasquez declines sharply (taking into context percentage and sample size) in every category except triples (which is the type of hit with the SSS by the way),and doubles, (which he still gives up at a significant rate both with the bases clear and with men on base) he's simply as prone to giving up XBH (specially homers) and walks while much less able to strike out batters, which is basically his signature mark, while, if you notice the statistics for Lackey and Burnett, you'll notice that they decline in some aspects but maintain others (noticeably K%), by doing calculations, i noticed that a lot of the pitchers with similar FIP to Vasquez besides these two (Josh Beckett, Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander) all have a similar difference in OPS from bases cleared and man on base, which ranges from (+47 to +62(, however, none of them come even close to sniffing a 3.0% in HR's allowed neither with the bases clear or men on base, and this is significant, neither does anyone come close to a (+70) difference.
Continues...