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Dipre

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Everything posted by Dipre

  1. Doug Mientkewickz was a better hitter who struck out less and walked more (with the exception of one season) and hit for similar power, (406 to 405 SLG% Kotchman advantage) but got on base at a way better clip (360 to 337 OBP advantage Mient) and was better regarded with the glove.
  2. He is until Vasquez proves he can keep runs off the board consistently in the AL.
  3. If i had to choose, he would be my response. I am a high-ranking official of the JDDT (JD Drew Defense Team) after all.
  4. Welcome to the site. Stick around. I don't have a favorite Sox player per se, i like everyone on the team a lot.
  5. We don't have to beat the Yankees in the regular season. In the post-season ,given the current state of the Sox' pitching , without being a homer, i can sit here and say that the Sox can beat the Yankees in a best-of-seven series. We have to make it to the post-season, and as currently constructed, the Sox can make it there.
  6. It really couldn't. And also, i don't buy the FO's unwillingness to go over the luxury tax if they were contemplating Bay and are still talking to Beltre.
  7. First base is an offensive position. You can find decent defenders who are good with the stick a dime-a-dozen, and Kotchman would be the main reason why you could say the team has taken a "Step back" offensively, and finding a decent 1B option is both not difficult but very important. If they can't trade Lowell, is see him manning 1B next year.
  8. I don't know about anyone else, but i will not be happy is Kotchman is manning first come Opening Day, propaganda or no propaganda.
  9. All the FO needs to do is find a suitable option for either 1B or 3B. I say that, as much as i dislike the idea, they should give Lowell a look at 1B if he's healthy. It's a gamble, but it's better than having Kotchman.
  10. Apparently, even though this was never reported, the Sox are adamant about staying under the luxury tax, even though they have been quoted as saying they'll go over it if need be. In fact, they pondered going over it for Bay.
  11. Anything but Kotchman at 1B makes this a whole new ballgame though.
  12. He's had 67 PA's at Fenway.
  13. Don't feel called out if you didn't.
  14. This is not something that can be attributed to a mere statistical fluke, but rather a career trend: Comparison: Javier Vasquez with men on base: OBP: .331 XBH%: 8.08 H%: 24 AJ Burnett with men on base: OBP: .328 XBH: 7.36 H%: 20.94 % John Lackey with men on base: OBP: .340 XBH%:7.07 H%:23.19 As you can see, Vasquez is simply inferior at preventing runs with men on base than either John Lackey or AJ Burnett, and Beckett, Halladay or Verlander for that matter, but i don't have the patience and i'm not bored enough to do those calculations as well. But wait! He's also more prone to allowing runs without people on base: Percentage of earned runs allowed with the bases clear (via solo homer of course): Javier Vasquez: 16.30% AJ Burnett: 12.86% John Lackey: 13.20% No pitcher i checked comes even close to Vasquez in this category either. His homer-prone ways are much more significant than some would lead us to believe. While this may be considered a "TL: DR" post, not only was i bored, but i'm tired of some people treating Vasquez like the second coming of Jesus. He is what he is, he eats innings, strikes people out, but gives up tons of XBH and runs. That is not the definition of an "effective pitcher".
  15. Here's how hitters fare against him with the bases empty/men on broken down by hits, 2B, 3B, HR and BB, while also examining K%: Bases clear: 23.04% H 5.37% BB 3.0% HR 4.96% 2B 0.55% 3B 22.88 K% Men on base: 24% H 7.42% BB 3.12% HR 4.44% 2B 0.52% 3B 19.56% K Pitchers with similar career FIP to Vasquez' 3.83 career OPS with bases clear/men on. AJ Burnett: 3.83 (.667/714=- +47) Bases Clear: 20.58% H 9.57% BB 2.25% HR 3.68% 2B 0.31% 3B 22.09% K Men on base: 20.94% H 10.39% BB 2.09% HR 4.75% 2B 0.52 % 3B 21.74% K John Lackey: 3.83 (.700/750= +50) Bases clear: 24.32% H 4.84% BB 2.26% HR 4.89% 2B 0.37% 3B 18.91% K Men on base: 23.19% H 7.39% BB 2.52 % HR 4.22% 2B 0.33% 3B 18.77% K After a thorough analysis of each of these pitchers (who happen to have the same career FIP) i'll expose the flaw both in the formula for Vasquez' case, and the reason why his "sterling" peripherals haven't translated into success when trying to accomplish a pitcher's main objective: Keeping runs off the board. First off, a look at FIP: (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB )*3-K*2)/IP The formula looks to "Find out how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well the fielders fielded", and the premise in correct in most cases, but it assumes a pitcher always pitches in a context-neutral environment (i.e: bases empty) and fails to account for an abnormal career trend such as Vasquez, more on this following: Every pitcher has a tendency to pitch slightly worse when pitching from the stretch, however, if you compare statistics from the three above pitchers, you'll notice that Vasquez declines sharply (taking into context percentage and sample size) in every category except triples (which is the type of hit with the SSS by the way),and doubles, (which he still gives up at a significant rate both with the bases clear and with men on base) he's simply as prone to giving up XBH (specially homers) and walks while much less able to strike out batters, which is basically his signature mark, while, if you notice the statistics for Lackey and Burnett, you'll notice that they decline in some aspects but maintain others (noticeably K%), by doing calculations, i noticed that a lot of the pitchers with similar FIP to Vasquez besides these two (Josh Beckett, Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander) all have a similar difference in OPS from bases cleared and man on base, which ranges from (+47 to +62(, however, none of them come even close to sniffing a 3.0% in HR's allowed neither with the bases clear or men on base, and this is significant, neither does anyone come close to a (+70) difference. Continues...
  16. About Vasquez' "Sterling" FIP but actual lack of results in what a pitcher is supposed to do, which is preventing other people from scoring, i found the following abnormality: The issue with Vasquez seems to be an utter ineffectiveness while dealing with men on base, and this is something that WAR or FIP won't show. Let's take a look at the following: Javier Vazquez career OPS against bases clear and men on. Clear On base 98:.875 .834 99:.678 .839 00:.799 .732 01:.620 .699 02:.751 .754 03:.617 .728 04:.712 .831 +119 05:.711 .857 06:.649 .834 +185 07:.681 .733 +52 08:.714 .818 +104 09:.603 .629 Career: .697 OPS with bases clear, .773 OPS with men on base. That's a +76 OPS differential with men on base to bases clear. Not to mention the two years where he kept the deficit below 50, (07,09) were both aided by statistical flukes. Consider the following: Both years he had a BABIP under .300, both years he had LOB% over 74%, not a huge help, but definitely something to note, however, the above proves that his problems with men on base are not a fluke but a career trend. It's funny that in his 2004 with the Yanks he actually had a .284 BABIP and a 19.2 LD%, both below his career averages, even though HR/9 and FB/GB were slightly above his career averages. Javier Vasquez 3.83 (697/773= +76) Continues......
  17. ^ Lol.
  18. I think anyone can be moved in the right deal. Even Kelly, who's been deemed "Untouchable" could probably be moved if the right player came along.
  19. He was still offered for Halladay, which was the point for the post.
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