Considering that we have 3-4 young catchers with at least solid backup potential coming along over the next 3 years, I'm not too bothered about the fact that our starting catcher will need the occasional break from behind the plate.
Consider also that we're very well situated to deal with V-Mart's need not to be the fulltime catche and still get his bat in the lineupr this year. Whatever you think of Beltre's overall talent level, he's coming off a bad year made worse by injury and surgery and he should probably be encouraged to take 40 games or so off over the course of the year anyway, probably when Verlander, Greinke, and other particularly tough righthanders are on the mound. When that happens, V-Mart takes first, Youkilis takes third, just like last year, and Varitek comes in behind the plate. Not optimal, especially the Varitek part, but it does take a RHH out of the lineup and puts an ostensible LHH in his place.
What we do next year is utterly dependent on whether the Twins get something done with Mauer. I fully expect Boston to fight New York over Mauer and win if he's available. they've got too much money coming off the books, and New York has too much NOT coming off the books plus a strong catching prospect in the wings. They will go after Mauer, but it'll be the Teixeira situation in reverse -- New York will know they don't really NEED him, while Boston knows they really do.
If Mauer's not coming to Boston, then they sign Victor Martinez and wait on the development of one of Wagner, Expo, Fed or Lavarnway.
Personally I suspect Wags is our backup next year unless something goes hideously wrong at the big league level or amazingly right with one of the other 3. I don't think Varitek's here past this season.