jacksonianmarch

Jayson Werth to sign with Nats

You gotta be willing to go the extra year for prime talent. They won't get him on the open market for less than 7 yrs anyway, so now it looks like he's heading back to SD. If this pushes the sox into a long term deal with a tumultuous Beltre, the sox could be in some serious trouble

The FO may push the deal along anyway, without a deal. If I were AdGon, there is no way I let an injury clause into the deal. He'd be better off playing out the season then signing a long term deal without an injury clause at seasons end. I bet it gets done, though. If the sox let him hit the market, anything can happen

I think you underestimate the loss of a top flight offensive producer from a purely defensive position. Compare Beltre's numbers with AdGon's. Comparing solely 2010, there isn't much difference. Now, this deal is dynamite for Boston, IMO, since it locks in that production rather than having an unpredictable player like Beltre play for a contract. But the loss of Vmart is gonna hurt until the sox replace his bat in the lineup, which is what I expect them to do

The second shoe to drop for Boston has to be Jayson Werth

As it stands, AdGon replaces Beltre's 2010 production. Until the sox nail down a player of VMart's caliber, the lineup is still weaker. If the sox can replace Cameron in the everyday lineup and only have 2 minus offensive positions (SS & C) then they'll be tough

I'd have to think a 7 yr deal around Tex's AAV of $22.5 mil is about right. Maybe they roll some of that forward into his 2011 contract

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the 4th man was a 2010 draftee. So as it stands.... Sox get Adrian Gonzalez Padres get Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymund Fuentes and a PTBNL

So Jeter gets 3 yrs 51 mil with a 4th yr vesting option at 10 mil

I have had my doubts about Kelly over the past year, so I think the sox moving on from him might be a selling high strategy, even though he is coming off a rough season. I think going to SD would be a best case scenario for his development. In terms of Rizzo, he has an AdGon ceiling, but he's at least 1 and maybe 2 yrs away from contributing at the big league level. I'd leave the "balance" of the trade to the other 2 prospects, cause if it's really just Kelly, Rizzo and 2 lottery tickets, then the sox did very well. If they start dealing some of their high end arms in the lower levels (like Younginer) then it's more of a wash

The Crawford rumors are very intriguing. I see why we would want him, but am not sure who you deal away? Do you deal Swisher, who is in the last yr of his contract? Do you deal Gardner, who is cheap and has shown better OBP skills in his first full big league season than Crawford has ever shown? Nobody seems to think Grandy gets moved. If they move Swish, they would probably knock out a good part of his AAV in the Crawford deal. But if it is Gardner who moves, then the posturing about a budget was all BS

The parameters will be tough to reach if he's on the bench in that last yr. They caved to the pink hats here and wanted to avoid the negative publicity more than anything else.

Even outside the US, I find the baseball chatter. Well, all the sites I am looking at point to a 4 for 1 deal. Heath Bell is no longer in the deal. Two players "definitely" in the deal are Rizzo and Kelly. Outside of that, nobody is speculating aside from saying that there are no "current" MLBers in it. That rules Lowrie, Kalish and DiceK out

I would love to see the Yankees get him, and I think as a strict lefty specialist, he'd be a good find

You guys enjoy the next week, I'll be gone...

This post has it all wrong. I love Jeter and think he was a fantastic Yankee for the last 15 years. How can you diminish the accolades of a shortstop who plays for 15 seasons and puts up a .314 average over that time as well as a .837OPS. Then, factor in that the guy got to the post-season 14 times and has hit .309 with an .850OPS over that time as well in the biggest spots. His so-called "saint-dom" is deserved as he has been the unquestioned leader of this team since around 1998 and was the key cog in 5 titles. His resume speaks for itself. But, you cannot pay a guy based on his resume in the world of sports. You need to pay him for what you think you are going to get out of him. And by year 3 of the deal, Jeter may not be able to break .270 even if he has a "lucky" season. And I cannot imagine what his range will look like in 2011, let alone 2013. The problem is, these athletes start thinking that their resume speaks for itself, when they eroding skills should be the glaring focal point of their contract negotiations. Jeter is an will always be, a great Yankee and the best shortstop in the history of the most storied baseball franchise. But, nothing lasts forever. And nobody should be given a blank check based in past performance

I will not confirm or deny

Cmon now, the guy has a good 171ABs and all of a sudden you can extrapolate it for a full year? Remember, Shane Spencer hit 10HR in a month before and he wasnt anything but a career 4th OFer. I think Lowrie has shown he can hit, but you cannot say he would be a 30HR hitter since he only played 55 games and hasnt shown nearly as much power through his minor league seasons

It's kinda funny how the sox fans are killing us for not falling all over Jeter and throwing insane dollars and years at him, since the sox have been doing the same for years. The only difference is, the sox are okay with losing a few prime years if it saves them from having to pay top dollar through the decline. While Jeter is clearly in the decline phase of his career with his prime about 2 yrs past him. You dont pay for past performance. Here is how I predict things going... Option A: The Yankees dont cave and Jeter comes back and accepts the offer. Talksox member, "The Yankees didnt show Jeter the respect he deserved!!" Option B: The Yankees cave and offer him 4+ yrs at 20+ mil per yr Talksox member, "ROFL, the Yankees caved and got roasted on this deal, he is clearly in the decline phase of his career and is a statue at SS!!!" Option C: Jeter actually finds another offer and leaves Talksox member, "How did the Yankees let the heart of their franchise leave, they are gonna be burned by this move!!" The flip flop ability is incredible and we will see it many who post on the thread.

Konerko got an arb offer and will likely make about $13-$15 million for year 1. If the sox want to pry him away, it would have to be on a 3yr $40-$45 mil deal since the guy did just put up an MVP caliber season

And people think the yanks are the ones docking around Derek

I doubt that he gets more than 3

I doubt he settles for a 4-5 yr deal, though. The market for elite players in their late 20s is at least a 6 yr deal (see Holliday and Teixiera).

I think Jeter did have an "off year" but I also dont think that any Yankee fan who actually watches the games thinks he is what he was a decade ago. I think his bat has more upside than a .270 hitter for 2011, although I doubt we ever see the .330 of 2009 or a UZR higher than -5 ever again. The fact is, a 36yr old minus defensive SS who hits .290 with a .750OPS is worth WAYYY less than $15 mil per.

It is easy to pull shorter time periods and try to make a generalized statement about them. I think Lackey does better in 2011, not because of how he finished, but because he is a much better pitcher than what his numbers suggested. Unless there is an injury, I expect Lackey to have an ERA in the low 4's, throw 200+IP and be a good, not great SP. That is what he had been prior to 2010 and that is what I think he becomes again in 2011