jacksonianmarch

There have been more than 1 report that Lee was offered a 7 yr deal from the sox. The AAV was apparently below $20 million, and it was likely an attempt to get their chief rival to bite on offering a 7 yr deal at big bank on a guy who shouldnt get more than a 5 yr deal.

This is strange, though. You have a guy who hits lefties well in Ellsbury. You have 3 guys who do not hit lefties well at all in Drew, Crawford, and Ortiz. And you have one lefty who historically hasnt hit lefties well but did very well against them in 2010 in AdGon. It makes you pretty lefty vulnerable in a division with a lot of quality left handers. And if reports of the Yankees going to 7 yrs on Cliff Lee is true, and if Andy Pettitte comes back, then your chief rival in the division will have 3 tough lefties. My response to this from the Yankees POV would be to make sure Scott Downs doesnt go to the sox, which it sounds like a lot of people are expecting. But if we got a shutdown lefty reliever to go along with 3 top notch left handers in the rotation then we can do a pretty good job of neutralizing your offensive strengths. That being said, your lineup above, if healthy, should be interchangeable with us in the 1 or 2 spot with runs scored. Theo put his money where his mouth is and definitely made your team a lot better

Example, while I agree totally that their drafts have been very good over the past 2 seasons, I would hesitate to call your farm deep at this point. Deep to me entails talent at all levels, and after the AdGon deal, your talent above A ball is really lacking. In terms of the Crawford deal, it's a bit puzzling. It makes the sox pretty left handed. It's also strange that this management decided to go 7 yrs on a speedster who isn't far from his 30th bday and relies on his speed for almost his entire game. I think you can probably kiss Ellsbury goodbye after 2011, since they are similar and theyd probably not go long term with him. This definitely shores up OF defense and adds another athletic dimension to the team, but in Fenway, his pull power will be diminished by the dimensions. I also wonder where e fits in the order. Do they lead him off and moves Ells back to 9, or do they bat him lower in the order and minimize his scoring oops.

7yrs 142 mil, per mlbtraderumors

Ludwick is a guy I'd hold onto if I were Hoyer. That team is completely devoid of power right now with Ludwick being the only offensive threat on the team. If he deals Ludwick, then the Pads would be in full out rebuild mode, which wouldnt look good one year after the team missed the playoffs on the last day of the season

Ranaudo is not in the top spot, IMO. He's top 5, but until he proves he can do it as a pro, I'd be reticent to put him in the top spot. I wouldnt have Cecchini so high either. Iglesias is in the top spot for me, although I see him getting passed over rather quickly this year, and another guy who has to be in the top 10 is Madison Younginer. Regardless, this top 10 will change massively over this yr as a lot of HSers make their long season league debuts. Regardless, the sox system wont generate any big time talent for at least 2 years after the AdGon trade

I'll eat crow if he does, but I will tell you right now, his ERA will be over 3.50 this coming season

And based on the fact that he has done it for exactly one season. He was hit or miss prior to this past season and then came out and had a Cy Young caliber year. I'd like to see him prove me wrong, but I think he ends up being a solid #2. I do not think he reproduces his ace 2010 season

I dont think his peripherals improve enough to offset a massive correction in his BABIP. I am sorry, but a 2.33ERA is a stellar season, something that is rarely done in the AL and especially in the East. I highly, highly, doubt he does it again.

Ellsbury still feeling something in his back. Like I said when the incident occured, rib fractures can take a LOOOONG time to heal and the pain lasts well past the fracture.

Groundball pitchers typically have BABIPs at or higher than .300 since groundballs have a better chance of being hits than flyballs, which lends to an even bigger anomaly in his BABIP than is already there. Listen, he had a hell of a year, but I highly, highly doubt he stays under 3.50 for 2011. Very highly doubt it

I think his ERA is due for a correction into the high 3's range which takes you out of ace range and more into #2 (or very good) range.

Lee has the Yankees over a barrel. And even though Cashman is trying to play it cool since we already have one ace, we kinda need more than one in this division. If we lose out on Lee, then a trade prior to the deadline is okay as I think the team as constituted is still one of the best in the AL, but in order to survive in the postseason, we'll need more pitching

We arent getting Greinke, it just isnt worth it. I do not see a scenario where the Yankees go into 2011 without Cliff Lee, though. Nobody beats a 6yr $150 million contract, which is what I think the Yankees eventually sign Lee to

The thing is, Crawford's suitors havent materialized yet. They very well might, but I wouldnt be surprised if Crawford takes forever to sign, and therefore the Yankees swoop in an get him

And multiple sources say that the Yankees will offer a 6 yr deal but a 7 yr deal is a dealbreaker

The sox will do better by starting Scutaro at SS, building up his value then dealing him off midseason. Right now, coming off the injuries and a season where he ended at 2b due to arm issues is going to limit any potential deals for him.

I think Nova is ready for the #5 starter spot. He has strikeout ability, but also great stuff to pitch to contact to. He just needs to work on holding runners and poise, which is something you dont do very much in the minors when nobody seems to get on against you and the pressure is much less. But we would need to build in some serious contingency plans. Let's say Andy retires and Lee goes back to Texas. I would assume the Yankees would go back and get Chien Ming Wang. He's finally healthy, and even if he only tops out at 90mph, that sinker could get outs. Then I agree, I would look at Webb. The only problem is, Webb was topping out at 85mph in his spring workouts, but that was pretty fresh out of his rehab. If he regains some arm strength, you should see his sinker go back into the high 80s range, which could make him useful. Then you have to think about innings eaters like Kevin Millwood or Vicente Padilla. Regardless, slim pickings after Lee, which makes him pretty necessary. You also have to think about moving Joba back to the rotation

I never doubted that Bard could make it as a reliever, I just didnt think he would rise as fast as he did. Anyone who can throw 100 mph cannot be ruled out for a relief role, hence why nobody should be surprised if Romulo Sanchez makes the Yankees this yr. Anderson, I thought had the tools, but was far from a sure thing. The big strikeout numbers in the minors should have been a bit of a predictive tool. But the scouts outside the sox org talked about his long swing, and it showed in spades when he came up and when he got to the upper levels

So per mlbtraderumors, the Rangers went into today with a 4 yr offer for Cliff Lee. Something tells me that they are bringing a butter knife to a gunfight.

Well, right now, in terms of big spenders known to be in on him, you're down to the Yankees and the Angels. The Angels are said to not be willing to go past 5-6 years and the Yankees are just sitting back and seeing how the negotiations go. It wouldnt shock me at all to see the Angels go 6/100 and the Yankees upping it to 6/105 or something like that