jacksonianmarch

I've now changed my view on Hernandez. Prior to the Jimenez trade, the best deal for an ace level pitcher was Cliff Lee. And that saw a top prospect, 2 close to ready mid level prospect and one long range prospect with upside head to Seattle. The Jimenez trade changed things when you saw two close to ready top prospects headline the deal. The Gio deal is insane. Peacock and Norris were their best pitching and offensive prospect in the Nats system and both were close. And the other two guys were hardly throw-ins. If the Mariners decided to deal Feliz, arguably better than both Gio and Jimenez combined, then they could ask for Montero, Nova, Betances, and Banuelos from the Yankees. At that point, I step back from the table and say, we'll stick it out. Also, remember, we're talking about two teams now actively trying to stay under the lux tax. The Yankees dont want to go way over as in years past because the bill is so much higher and the sox dont want to move past it at all. Having $19 mil on the books for Hernandez wouldnt help.

Floyd is a guy I wanted in NY, but if this climate shows anything, these pitchers are all getting ridiculous hauls for their teams. I went through a breakdown of his stats in the Yankee offseason thread, but he is coming off a yr with solid peripherals yet a high ERA. But knowing Kenny Williams, he'll shop him around, sign him to an extension then watch the White Sox ship sink.

I think Bogaerts isnt a SS in the bigs. He's a big dude and is very young. He'll be a 3b or a corner OFer by the time he makes his way to the bigs. But as he fills in, the power should grow further. I think both are solid prospects, but the fact that they are your top 2 shows the fact that your farm system is a little ways off. Rightfully so, though, as Rizzo, Fuentes and Kelly were moved last offseason. SO there is a tradeoff.

Jacobs is far away, but possesses true 30-30 potential and he isnt even close to reaching his ceiling. He is a top prospect, and IMO, is your #1 prospect

#1- You made a trade proposal for an elite defensive CFer with good offensive production on a team that won their division, and your proposal included a 4th OFer and a bunch of long range prospects. I showed you it was ridiculous, and you lost it like a pregnant teen. #2- I followed Aceves throughout his minor league career. He doesnt have one plus pitch and he throws all his pitches up front. He isnt like most pitchers who showcase their fastball and curve first time through, work in the change the second time through and then show the slider/cutter the third time through. This means batters get a feel for him. And, you are using big league numbers that are of small sample size. I will tell you right now, as a fan of Aceves' throughout his short career, he will do well for you in short stints, he will not, though, be a solid starter. I wish we had him, I loved the guy, but he should always be a swing man. #3- 700 is right...

DiceK is injured currently and was never as good as Jurrjens when healthy. Aviles never OPS'd over .800, while Prado did it 3 yrs in a row. No comparison. And Young had a much higher WAR last yr. but continue your delusion. Crazy is fun!

My god, you make he laugh hysterically. How bout we pick and choose stats as we please and see which ones work, hmmm? Prado hit over .300 for three straight yrs, 2 of them as a starter. He had some injury issues last yr and was off that pace significantly. Sorry I misspoke about his role, forgot about Hardy, but Prado would definitely slot into a starting spot on that team. Possibly at 3b if they move Reynolds to 1b, 2b depending on Roberts or even in LF, which is open for them as of right now. Jurrjens has had his injuries, but I said he would be an ace ON THEIR TEAM. Meaning, he'd be their best pitcher. That is indisputable. And the other thing that you are seeing here is the Braves would be giving the O's MAJOR LEAGUE TALENT, something you don't have. Regardless, go back to the drawing board or maybe school, get a little education and then bring something to the table that doesnt completely blow. Merry Christmas! And btw, this rumor effectively neuters your position. Your lunch was delicious

Just to show you guys how ridiculous the Chris Young talks on here were.... MLBTR is reporting that the Orioles turned down an offer from the Braves for Adam Jones. That offer was Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, and a prospect. Let's compare Adam Jones has a career OPS of .756. Chris Young has a career OPS of .756. Chris Young is 28, Jones is 26. Chris Young had a UZR/150 of 12.9. Adam Jones had a UZR/150 of -8.5. Chris Young had a WAR of 4.6. Adam Jones had a WAR of 2.9. So effectively, the Orioles were offered a top flight SP, a 28 yr old superutility guy coming off a bad season but with 3 previous .300+BA seasons and a prospect for Jones. Jurrjens would have been the Orioles ace and Prado their starting SS. And they would have gotten a prospect. And the O's said no. This is a reality check for those of you who disagreed with me and thought you could get a solid, young CFer for a bunch of B level prospects and a future 4th OFer in Reddick

He's going to be stuck in the same situation as DiceK. He's not going to be welcomed back when the Fighters can get $51.7 million for letting him walk. And his dream is to go to the MLB. So effectively, he either takes a reduced deal or he returns to Japan in shame. Shame will drive this, and I think a 6yr $60 mil deal would be done. It's more than DiceK, but not by much.

That would be highly successful for anyone. I am telling you this as a guy who followed Aceves from the day he was signed, he is not going to be a good starter. Keep him as is. If he is a starter, you're looking at a 4.5 or higher ERA

And I am arguing that the DBacks are a contender and arent going to trade an important part of their team for a bunch of prospects

Then you must figure that teams would want to get market value for their players. Guys who can play elite defense up the middle, go for 20/20, are in their 20s and in a down season can still OPS over .750 are worth something. Actually, worth a lot. If you think you're getting him without giving up a big league ready OFers, a big league ready pitcher and a high end prospect, you're crazy.

Well, when you throw it out there with no grasp on reality, I have to give you a little reality check. I am sorry that I am the only one who can ground you to the floor when your head is in the clouds.

Regardless, you guys are talking about getting Chris Young on the cheap, which isnt going to happen. He's a 20/20 guy who in his off season put up a .751OPS while playing elite D in centerfield. These guys do not grow on trees, and at $7.5 mil, he's probably a little underpaid considering the market. He's a guy who the DBacks wouldnt trade right now anyway since they did win the NL West and arent looking to rebuild. If you deal for him, you're gonna have to move something at the big league level. They need a pen arm and they need some more offense. Subtracting Young while adding Kalish and a bunch of either non-prospects or far away prospects doesnt helpt them for 2012

So it seems like the Yankees are "big" on Yoenis Cespedes. The kid can apparently do it all. 5 tool player who apparently is ready now and can hit the ball out of any field in any direction. It remains to be seen if he can adjust quickly to big league pitching. We've seen players with all the tools get fooled and falter in this game, so I am a little skeptical. My hope is that they dont up and deal Swisher if they sign this kid. I think a year adjusting to baseball in America might be a good idea and then call him up when you think he's ready

He dinged Ranaudo because he had wild fluctuations in stuff. If he is unsure of consistency or worried about injury, then it's okay to hedge a little. I do agree, though, Brentz shouldnt be ahead of him. Brentz reminds me of a few Yankees farmhands who just dominated the lower levels with poor strike zone discipline, then got carved up at the higher levels. That's a major flaw in his game that will bother him as he grows. I think the Ludwick comparison is a good one. Hit or miss guy who can hit it a long way or take a golden sombrero

Montero will graduate. Zoilo Almonte, in all likelihood will not. The Yanks still like him as a prospect, and bringing him up as anything more than an injury replacement would deaden his value. I hope Warren and Phelps both do not graduate. Well, I guess it depends on your definition. If you mean one game in the bigs, then maybe. But if you mean losing their rookie status, that'd be insane. If both of them lose their rookie status in 2012, then we're in deep trouble. I expect DJ Mitchell to be the swing man, so he'll lose his rookie status. Betances, I expect to be with us later in the season, but I am unsure if he will lose his rookie status in 2012. I think he and ManBan get one full year in AAA to settle in, then both graduate in 2013

It's supposed to be 11pm. But he wont be going to NY. The Yankees put up a modest bid, and the winning bid is apparently higher than $51.1 million. That isnt a modest bid

Noesi has had some control issues in the winter league. Could be due to his bump up in velocity. Regardless, I have said before and will say again that the guy needs to start the yr off in AAA as a starter and will likely be the first call up. That's actually a commonly held thought and was uttered directly by the Yankees brass this offseason (Cashman to be exact).

Warren, Phelps, and Noesi, three guys you probably have never heard of, arent ready because you deem them to be. I see. Insightful, really. Now, if you had any substance there, maybe I'd believe you. But Noesi already spent his rookie season in the bigs facing big leaguers out of the pen. Phelps and Warren made 45 starts between them in AAA. Not like they were late season call-ups. If it werent for an injury to Phelps midseason, he'd have been the spot starter for Colon when he went down with a hammy. Not sure how you quantify "not ready" but you're grasping it straws here. Now, they may come up and get completely bombed. Never disputed that. But nobody can really say they arent ready for the chance or incapable of handling the opportunity. Nova could be figured out, yes, but why did he get better as the year went on instead of the opposite? His injury concerns are valid, but if healthy, he's likely to be better since it will be his second full yr in the bigs. AJ could be bad AJ all year long, that's valid. I said I think he could creep his ERA into the high 4's. It's not rocket science, the guy's ERA was 5.15. Is it out of the realm of possibility for him to get to 4.70, especially with how he finished? Even the biggest Boston homer would agree with me on this one. It's plausible. The only thing I gave AJ credit for was his health. 3 straight seasons now, he's been healthy and he's eaten innings. I agree totally on Garcia. I didnt like his resigning, but for 2 yrs in a row now, he's put up similar numbers. He's a guy who pitched to a 4.64ERA with almost the same numbers in 2010. The big thing he did in 2011 was limit HRs, which is weird since he plays in YS. Regardless, he could be out of the rotation come the ASB. I am skeptical Now, how am I not being a realist. You're effectively telling me what I should be saying while I acknowledged all of the above in my initial post. Not sure what kind of ground you are breaking here, Dutch

Oh, and it is just complete idiocy to say he was bad in the playoffs. He resumed game 1 and threw 6+IP of 2 run ball, and those 2 runs came in garbage time. And in game 5, he was hurt. So yeah, he was pretty good

You guys are pretty shallow and pedantic. Shallow and pedantic.... Dispute what I said, go for it.

So it looks like Darvish isnt coming to NY, so for now, the Yankees have their top 5 and are ready to roll with their already deep top of the farm system SP depth. In truth, I think we can definitely repeat as AL East champs with the rotation as is. We know the following... 1. CC Sabathia is an ace. He'll give us 200+IP at a low 3's ERA and be our leader on the bump 2. AJ Burnett has been healthy and finished the year strong. He's enigmatic, but has given us innings 3. Ivan Nova was the balls at the end of 2011. He was our #2 in the playoffs and performed well 4. Freddy Garcia has figured out how to pitch to his diminished velocity 5. Phil Hughes finally looked healthy by season's end. Now come the if's, and we really need just one if/need to be dominant again in 2012. We need one of the above to step up as a solid #2. I think we can expect the following.... 1. CC will be dominant with a few blips on the radar 2. AJ Burnett will once again show maddening inconsistency, but I do expect him to build off his solid finish to the yr and see his ERA drop into the 4's (most likely high 4's) 3. One of our starters will go down for a prolonged period of time or multiple starters will go down for short stretches Knowing the above, I am predicting the following... 1. Similar year from CC. 20 or so wins, low 3's ERA, 220+IP 2. AJ Burnett's ERA in the 4.7 range, his IP peaks back over the 200IP mark 3. Ivan Nova will continue his breakout and pitch to a high 3's ERA. The IP will be determined by his health, but all reports have him throwing and completely healthy right now 4. Freddy Garcia scares the ever living s*** out of me and while he was solid last yr, I did not agree with this move. Anybody who can get hit like he did vs Detroit while making the exact pitch he was looking to make gives me pause 5. Phil Hughes will rebound and have a solid yet unspectacular season. I am, though, concerned about his durability in the rotation This leads me to believe that our depth is going to get used. In the pen, we have these spots locked... 1. Rivera 2. Robertson 3. Soriano 4. Logan 5. Wade On a team that carries 11-12 pitchers at a time, that leaves us with at least 1-2 spots open for the kids. Last yr, Noesi was carried in that slot intermittently and Colon and Ayala were also on the roster. We also have Joba coming back by the ASB. This yr, I think Noesi starts the yr as a starter in AAA and is our first call. He's been sitting mid to high 90s out of the rotation in the winter league this yr, as opposed to his topping out at 95-96 and sitting 91-92. If he continues that breakout, he'll be a SP prospect rather than a swing prospect which is what I had him pegged as. And with his experience, he'd be our 6th starter. Our most likely candidate for the swing spot, IMO, is DJ Mitchell. Tops out at 92 mph, but throws a wicked sinker/slider combo and could be a guy a la Scot Shields who can just mow down opponents in his way. He is the spitting image of Ramiro Mendoza from a decade ago with the ability to locate a deadly sinker and also have a starters arsenal coming out of the pen. After Noesi, we have no shortage of SP depth, assuming we have Mitchell as the swing man and eliminate him from the argument. Next calls after Noesi would be Adam Warren and David Phelps. Then, assuming the timing is right and they both start out well in SWB, the duo of top prospects in Dellin Betances and Manuel Banuelos. We have the depth, and assuming we're going in as is, we'll be using it. I just hope that if we are keeping the rotation as is that we dont make a stupid move and trade off that depth. Because if we do, we could be in a similar spot as the sox should/when one of our starters go down That doesnt mean I wouldnt welcome a deal for a #2 starter. I would just prefer that if we werent to alter the rotation at all that we done use that depth to deal for an offensive player and leave our depth to s***. The depth and the fact that we have a surefire #1 and a rotation that did it last yr is enough for me. But we need to ensure that we have kids ready and able to do the job. We dont want to have to rely on one kid like the sox did with Weiland should they come up and s*** the bed. We have a ton of talent, and all of these kids look to have a big league arsenal and big league polish. It's just about developing them