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Everything posted by jacksonianmarch
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A Realistic View at 2018: Part I
jacksonianmarch replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Arguments get you a disorderly. You don’t get a charge of assault without doing something physical. Prevention of a 911 call is probably the hint. Maybe he didn’t strike her, but maybe he took the phone from her or broke her phone when she said she was going to call 911. Either way, that is usually taken seriously. My guess is she doesn’t cooperate and the charges are dropped. He probably gets a 15 game suspension for being a dope. -
A Realistic View at 2018: Part I
jacksonianmarch replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
They can be interested all they want. The question is, who are they giving up? You don’t have the parts in the minors to make this deal happen. You’re going to have to part with something painful -
He would. And I think Schwarber at DH will be very good for him
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The offense will be prolific, that’s for sure. The games aren’t played on paper, though
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Boo freakin who. You’re crying inequity here yet your team is going to spend more than $30 mil more than the Yankees are looking to spend. Look in the mirror
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I don’t agree that you’d hate it. Schwarber has a ridiculously unlucky 2017. Look at the numbers. In his 2015 campaign, he had a BABIP of .293 and put up a solid .246/.355/.487 as a rookie with 16HR in 273AB. Last year, he hit 30 homers and his walk rate was still good, but his BABIP dropped to .244. His K rate was pretty similar as well. He’s a candidate to hit .240-.260 and have a mid .800s OPS. He’s also only 24 and he’s been out of position. Also, Ryan Howard used to be really good for a while there
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Guzman sit at 100mph for 6 innings He tops out at 102mph. He can locate. He has a change and a breaking ball which are at least average. His only problem right now is proximity. Scout.com had him as our #4 prospect.
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Schwarber is a good get if you can get him. He’d be your DH for a decade
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A Realistic View at 2018: Part I
jacksonianmarch replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Machado is going to be interesting. He should be a SS, but they have Beckham now. He also has shown unbelievable talent mixed with incredible frustrations. He’s had 3 6+ WAR seasons in the last 5, and 2 seasons of sub 3. He’s got power, but not Stanton level power. He doesn’t take pitches and walk like most major power hitters either. If he has a 6 WAR walk year, he’ll get big big money. If he hits .250 with a .310 OBP and 30 bombs again, his market will not materialize like he hopes. -
If the trade goes through, the Yankees will have 3 hitters with a HR/FB ratio of 25% or better. No other DIVISION has 3.
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He’s buried right now. We have 4 OFers ahead of him. The open DH spot and Hicks’ career splits gives him a possible opening for injury or ineffectiveness, but if players perform to their 2017 levels, he has literally no place in our lineup. He thinks he can beat out Hicks for the CF spot, but Hicks is better than him both offensively (power and patience combo) and defense. Hicks will be the CF starter on opening day. Ellsbury will have to win PT by hoping for someone to fail. I think this deal will change his mind for sure. That being said, he’s got a NT. I’d go to him and tell him that he’s got no path to PT. We have depth that is better than him in AAA and we have no openings on the big league stage. If he stayed, he’d be a pinch runner and seldom used reserve. If dealt, he could theoretically start for someone. For as bad as the contract is, Ells did put up a 1.6 WAR in 112 games. He’s a 2 WAR player capable of playing a slightly below average defensive CF. I had pegged his worth at $7-$10 mil annually (fangraphs had him worth $12.8 mil last year). He’s on the books for $21.8 mil per year for 3 more seasons. Someone will want him, the question is who and for how much
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I’m just a bit excited. BTW, Yankees now shopping Headley. I’m wondering if they’ll actually go into the season with 2 rookies in the lineup, but the top 7 is so deep that it may be doable. They’re also re-doubling their efforts to move Ellsbury. I think Jacoby has seen the writing on the wall here. If he doesn’t waive his NTC, he’s going to get maybe 100 ABs.
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Yes they came in 2nd but they lost the division by 20 games. They missed WC#2 by 10 games. They weren’t heading for the playoffs even with their offense crushing balls left and right. Like I said, they were the Rangers of the early 2000s. They had massive power and put up runs, but their pitching was awful. And they were losing money. It’s okay to lose money when you’re top dog, you’ll recoup that value in the value of the franchise and eventually when you rebuild. But they were losing money and losing ball games. If I were Jeter, I’d sell off every guaranteed contract. I’d deal even the arb guys and pre arb guy. If you’re gonna suck, go all out in sucking. By the time the current pre arb guys hit FA, you’ll still be in the rebuild. I’d deal Osuna and Yelich. They have one young pitcher who had a good year, I deal him too. Go for the gusto, 40 wins, 3-4 years of 1st pick overall, load the farm, sign INTL players and rebuild the old fashioned way
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We are going to try and dump Ells, but I doubt we find a palatable spot. If we do, I can see us carrying Cave or McKinney over Frazier as we could need a LH platoon partner for Hicks if he reverts. That’s Ells possible path to playing time.
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The former Marlins President was on mlb radio today. He said the Marlins lost money 3 years straight. They built a deep offense, but when Jose Fernandez died, the pitching aspect fell to tatters. They don’t have the money to get pitching and their farm sucked. The Marlins were stuck being the Rangers of the early 00s. All offense, no pitching and multiple last place or 3rd place finishes. They had to tank and start over. There was no other way around it.
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The cavalry Miguel Andujar very well may end up the starting 3b by seasons end. He is still 22 and hit .315 with 16HR in AAA last season. He played in 5 big league games in 2017 collecting 4 hits in 7 at bats. He is the anti-Judge in terms of approach. Andujar doesn't strike out much at all. He was set down on strikes only 71 times in 125 minor league games. He also doesn't walk much, with only 29 walks in those same amount of games. He is an early count hitter capable of hitting long balls and raking doubles all over the park (36 doubles and 16HR in 125 games). He's a bona fide top 100 prospect with power potential to hit 25+ HRs and the kind of hitting ability to hit .300. He also plays a nice 3b Clint Frazier- Frazier has the quickest hands you'll ever see. He came up to the bigs and showed those quick hands, but really came unglued in terms of his approach. Typically a very patient hitter with big power, he became a free swinger and was quickly dispatched by good big league pitching. Clint has 30+HR power potential, but he will likely not see the PT in the Bronx unless Hicks or Gardner nosedives. Until then, I anticipate he will hone his craft in AAA and bide his time until his turn comes. He did just turn 23 in September, so he is still very young. Tyler Wade- Brief cameo with the Yankees and got very inconsistent PT and struggled. What he showed in AAA was a very patient approach, a high .310 batting average and finally started showing the power potential the scouts swore was there. Tyler also stole 26 bases in only 85 games showing his unique base stealing ability. Tyler has the kind of glove that can carry him in the middle infield as well. He is on the short list of guys who could start at 2b on opening day. He is also a guy who could step in at SS or 2b should Gregorius get hurt or take a hike after 2018. He just turned 23 last month, so he is also very young. Thairo Estrada- Estrada followed up a solid 2016 season splitting time in A ball with a very strong season in AA. Estrada turns 22 in February and hit .301 with a .353 OBP while showing very strong glove work. He isn't ever going to be a big power guy, but might end up hitting 10-15 at his peak. He is more a very strong contact hitter capable of spraying hits all over the diamond. He only struck out 56 times in 122 games, showing his elite knack for contact. He is likely a year away, but he did hold his own vs great competition in the AFL this year. Billy McKinney- We got Billy in the Chapman trade and he finally showed his potential in 2017. McKinney is a former first rounder whose power potential stalled, leading to 3 teams in 3 seasons. Last year, something clicked. Billy smacked 16 HR and 29 doubles in 124 games between AA and AAA. Now on the 40 man roster, McKinney will likely be headed back to AAA, but is only a call away from being in the bigs. He will be jostling with Frazier and Cave for first OFer called up Jake Cave- Jake just turned 25 yrs old and was headed towards a final minor league season before he had the season of his life. He was doing well enough in AA (.832OPS) to warrant a callup to AAA. Once called up, he went off. In 72 games, he hit .324 with a .921 OPS and 15 HR. He never had double digit HRs in a season and in 2017, he smacked 20 in 103 games. Jake's game isn't without its warts. He does strike out a fair amount and he does not walk much at all. His base stealing speed has been sapped from knee injuries but he is still a solid defender in CF and a plus defender in the corners. Jake was added to the 40 man prior to the offseason and will be on the short list for callup when the need arises
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These Yankees are loaded for bear now. I thought we'd be getting Santana under the Christmas tree. Little did I know that we'd be jettisoning Castro and getting Stanton. Now looking at this lineup, it is positively insane how much power is here 1. Brett Gardner- LF- Gardy had a resurgent 2017 with a near 4 WAR season. He set a new career high with 21HR and put together a solid 20-20 season going along with 23 steals. His defense rebounded to just above average after a few years where he trailed off. Now long in the tooth at 34 years old and under control through 2018 with an option for 2019, Gardner needs to continue putting up solid numbers in order to stick around beyond 2018. He will likely take the lion's share of time in LF with a fair amount of CF time to get Giancarlo in the field. I wonder if Gardy can crack another 20 HRs, but his swing is made for Yankee Stadium and he hasn't shown any signs of slowing down yet 2. Aaron Judge- RF- The ROY winner and runner up MVP had a season for the ages in 2017. 52 bombs, an OPS over 1.000 and good enough baserunning and defensive metrics to not be a hit only player. Now the daunting question of, can he repeat this will arise. I think he can. I anticipate that this kid has a 60HR season in him, especially playing in Yankee Stadium for half his games. He goes the other way with authority just about as good as the #3 hitter in the lineup, and with the RF porch so short, he should continue to rack up HR after HR 3. Giancarlo Stanton- DH- Stanton will likely take the most assignments at DH of anyone on the roster, but is still looking at over 100 games in the field. Giancarlo hit 59 bombs playing in the 3rd toughest stadium to hit HR in. Now he moves to NY where he can reach the seats in LF with the best of them and also poke one out to RF on a whim. He is also not just a pull hitter as he hits the ball to CF or RF 56% of the time for his career. Stanton is a complete power hitter. He takes tons of walks, strikes out a ton and hits an inordinate amount of HRs. His SLG of .631 last season was the highest in baseball since Harper went over that mark in 2015. He also hit 32 doubles as well. In this lineup, he will immediately become the focal point. I anticipate his HR numbers and his walk numbers to rise. Batting after Judge and his .400+OBP will likely lead to more RBI's for the big righty. Adding Giancarlo to this team makes the rich richer, and adds another gigantic power hitter alongside the even more massive Judge 4. Greg Bird- 1B- Injured for 2016 and the better part of 2017, Greg Bird became an afterthought on a Yankee club moving toward the playoffs in 2017. Once he finally healed from an ankle ailment, he didn't disappoint. He whacked 8HR and had a near .900OPS from Aug 26th through the end of the regular season then OPS'd .938 in 13 postseason contests, crushing 3 more homeruns. If Bird enters the year healthy, he is a legitimate 35HR threat. He has a beautiful left handed swing that will fit very well in the Bronx. He also has a very good eye that should only sharpen with more time in the bigs. He is a big time sleeper for NY, but with the new look bash brothers ahead of him, he should be an absolute force to be reckoned with in 2018. 5. Gary Sanchez- C- Gary Sanchez quietly reached 50HR faster than any catcher in baseball history. Yes, faster than Piazza, Posada, Berra, Bench, Howard, Campanella. All of them. Gary is only the third catcher in major league history to put up 30+HR in his first or second season with Piazza and Rudy York being the only other 2....And Sanchez's "rookie" campaign was all of 53 games. Sanchez swatted 33 HR and drove in 90 in 2017 with a WAR of 4.4 and that is with him missing a month. He was squarely on his way to a 40HR campaign and he is only going to get better. Now batting behind the twin towers and a high OBP guy like Bird, Sanchez should have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. Now no longer the focal point of the offense, Gary can enjoy being a great player in a loaded lineup. The one caveat for Gary is the defense suffered in 2017. Sanchez got into Girardi's doghouse for his inability to block balls. Sanchez says he lost some flexibility by putting on 20 lbs of muscle after 2016. He intends on losing some and becoming quicker. We shall see if it works. As it stands, I anticipate Gary will catch around 100 games for the Yankees. While the blocking isn't there, his arm is as good as it gets. 6. Didi Gregorius- SS- Didi Gregorius hit the most HR by a Yankee SS ever in 2017 at 25. He also smacked some big ones in the playoffs. Didi is fresh off another career season and saw his WAR jump to 3.9. He doesn't walk, but he also doesn't strike out a lot. In a lineup led off by 5 guys with high K numbers, having a guy like DD around isn't a bad thing. Didi also was as clutch as it got. He hit .253 with a .718OPS with nobody on base, but hit .327 with runners on and .304 with RISP. Didi is entering his walk year and would do well to put up another career season setting himself up for a big extension in NY 7. Aaron Hicks- CF- Hicks paid dividends after the Yankees got him for our former backup catcher. Hicks played elite defense in CF and hit for power and reached base when he played. Twice injuring his obliques, he misses a fair amount of time and was limited to 301AB. But in those 303 ABs, he put up 3.3 WAR. Hicks' history as flamed out former top prospect to reclamation project makes for great drama, but it also doesn't allow for much extrapolation. Prior to getting hurt, his OPS was over .900. After getting hurt, it was .715 and he really struggled in the post season. Hicks has always been death vs lefties, but this past year he was good against righties as well with an .800+OPS. If he proves 2017 was no fluke, then he cements the top 7 in the lineup. If he spirals down to his prior career norms, then he becomes the RH portion of a platoon or fades out entirely. Either way, here is to hoping Hicks 2017 version is here to stay 8. Chase Headley 3B- Headley got moved around the diamond and by playoff time, wasn't playing at all. But with 2018 on the horizon, Headley figures to be a placeholder for up and coming rookie Miguel Andujar. Headley quietly put up 1.9WAR and a .352OBP. If he reaches base at a similar clip, he will be more than just a placeholder. His power has almost completely eroded down to 10-15HR on a season. He will be a FA after 2018, so one must wonder if he has a last gasp before another payday. I wont hold my breath 9. Gleyber Torres 2B- Lets be entirely honest. Tyler Wade or Ronald Torreyes will probably start the season as the 2b and they'll keep Torres down for a few weeks to delay his service clock and just get back into the swing of things in his return from TJS on his non throwing elbow. But unless someone just goes apeshit, Torres is going to take this job. Torres is the #1 prospect in baseball for a reason. He turns 21 in 4 days and has already made it up to AAA. He was the AFL MVP in 2016 and hit .309 with a .406OBP in a brief 23 game cameo in AAA. The guy also plays elite level defense as a SS, so shifting to 2b should actually be easier. Torres has the contact tool to hit for a high average. He has the eye to take a lot of walks. He has gap power now that is expected to blossom into 25+HR power later. This lineup is so deep that it can carry a rookie through some struggles. Should Gleyber prove not to be ready, other options are Tyler Wade who hit .310 in AAA as a 22 yr old and earned a cameo in the bigs last yr and Ronald Torreyes, a steady yet unspectacular super sub capable of being a replacement level player with a good glove and almost no walks or power.
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LOL, you know literally NOTHING about prospects yet you continue to pound that drum. You're absolutely hilarious. Time to renovate the bridge you are living under, you're gonna be there awhile. Guzman has an average breaking ball and average change at this point, but he has really solid command and showed the ability to locate a near 100mph heater as well as his secondary pitches. If he can get a bit more depth on his breaking ball, he will be entirely complete.
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no harm there man. Fan Since Boggs just continues to bang the exact same drum with no idea what he’s talking about.
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Look kids, a troll!
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Guzman would be your #1. He’s got insane stuff, he just finally harnessed it. He’s a definite loss for the system
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Lol Troll
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Our rotation cannot win? We were a game from the WS. Tanaka was a shut down ace in the playoffs. Sevy was 3rd in the CY. Gray is a damn good pitcher too. Our top 3 is solid. Montgomery was surprisingly good and we are loaded with upper level MiLB talent or we just re-sign CC.
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I don’t deal Frazier. He’s insurance. Unless I can get a difference maker. Otherwise, I either roll as is or re-sign CC
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The Yankees hit 241 HR in 2017. We add in Stanton’s 59 and remove Holliday’s 19. We lose Castro’s 16 and probably see 10 from Torres. If repeat performance is a given (it isn’t I know), then that puts us at 275 HR, 11 over the record set in 97 by the M’s

