jacksonianmarch

Here’s why I doubt Pearce is re-signed. He’s never been more marketable and he’s 35. He’s gonna get the biggest money he can find and the biggest role he can find. My bet is he signs with a team to be their regular 1b, no platoon. That increases his value and will likely see him dealt during that deal to a contender when the deadline comes about

Give us the title now!! I remember when he was coming up with the Sox, he was gonna be a 10 time all star catcher! And he’ll be cut by the end of ST

JD may have gotten $25 mil in 2018 and will again in 2019, but after that, he drops down $5 mil per year. He will turn a non guaranteed 5 yr $110 into a 7 yr $175 mil before all is said and done

What did you give Sale and what pitcher is Sale in 2020? I highly, highly, highly doubt the sox re-sign Sale. I think they are absolutely content to let him walk. Here is the deal. If Sale runs through the AL like wildfire in 2019, he will be paid a king's ransom. He missed parts of 2018 and 2017 and was toast in the postseason two years in a row. Will the sox want to pony up the Greinke type contract required to sign him? And if 2019 is a disaster for him and he ends up mediocre or injured, why would the Sox want him? I think Sale is gone after 2019

I actually think that's exactly what he will get. If he goes out and mashes, he will get a 5 yr $125 mil contract.

Dalbec is the higher rated prospect IIRC. The thing that concerns me about Dalbec is his utter lack of plate discipline once he got to AA. He was a High A warrior and averaged 2 walks every 3 games. He got to AA and he walked once every 5 games and his K rate jumped by 0.3 per game. AA is the proving ground for prospect and for a guy who will turn 24 in 2019, I wonder if he was just older than his competition or if he will develop into an Aaron Judge type high K and high BB player. Ockimey showed better plate discipline in AA and is a year and 4 months younger than Dalbec, but he hasn't shown the same premium power upside. He can hit the homer, just not at the rate of Dalbec. Either way, both will need to work on their hit tool to stay relevant

I get that, but Papi never seriously entered the FA market. He always ended up taking what the sox were willing to give. JD will hit the market again. Boras will parade around his bat as a trophy for teams ready to make the next step. He will go to the highest bidder.

I see that, but what I am saying is there is no reason to sign Pearce if you think Chavis is ready. And if Chavis is the R on R platoon mate of Pearce, then why not just start Pearce? I also don't think Moreland has much value on the open market. The sox signed him mostly to ensure they get good defense and a good AB out of 1b. He was a placeholder to figure out Hanley and at least show some stability. Problem is, he is a first half warrior and second half swooner almost on a yearly basis.

If JD opts out, then the FA class of 2019 will be stupid JD Martinez Chris Sale Rick Porcello Xander Bogaerts Brock Holt The only extra cash coming off the books is the Panda contract ($13 mil as there is a $5 mil buyout). Subtracting the guys above with the arb projections and adding in Panda will be $85 mil give or take. I think you let Holt walk, because we are going to see precedent for super subs this offseason and it will likely be pretty lucrative for a guy like Holt. If he replicates his 2018, he could be staring at $8-$9 mil per annum with a team that wants to pay for his versatility Chris Sale is probably gonna go elsewhere, no matter how good his 2019 is. I doubt the sox would be willing to pay the price for him if he kills it because of the shoulder concerns and they won't want to re-sign him if he is hurt or ineffective That leaves the $85 mil to re-sign JD, Xander, Porcello AND pay Mookie in his walk year and pay for some of the other arb guys coming down the pipe. Figure $15 mil of that figure will go to arb raises. That leaves $70 mil and you cannot re-sign all 3 of those guys for $70 mil. If Xander repeats his 2018, he will be a $28-$30 mil per annum player. JD will likely cash in above the $25 mil per annum mark. Porcello will probably be around $25 mil as well just due to his durability. You're looking at losing your utility guy/2b, your ace and then having trouble re-signing JD, Xander and Porcello. My guess is the sox take Eovaldi this offseason, allow Porcello to walk and your 2020 starting rotation will look like: Price ERod Eovaldi Johnson? Velasquez? That rotation suddenly doesn't strike fear in other teams as much as it has and you still have the prospect of re-signing Willie Mays reincarnated the following offseason. Without the ability to fill the spots vacated, you will need to spend to replace Holt as well. This is how the house of cards crumbles

I don't think Ockimey is the right guy. He wasn't great in AA and was terrible in AAA. Chavis might end up being Pearce's replacement come the end of the season. The problem is, if you re-sign Pearce, you will need the LH part of the platoon. Chavis is RHed. Pearce is gonna sign for the highest total salary. He hasn't earned a ton in his career and this sox run will be his cash cow.

I see. That makes sense.

Pearce is probably headed for a 2 yr $15 mil contract. That seems to be the going rate for RH hitting platoon 1b/COF's.

Papi never called the FO's bluff. JD has no loyalty to Boston and has Boras as a client. In the age of grip it and rip it hitters, JD is the rare guy who can slug 40 homers and hit over .300. His skills will translate to one more big contract as long as he survives 2019 healthy

Not really for the best. If they operate now, you'll end up with a colostomy and then need a reversal 9-12 months down the line. If you wait 6-8 weeks, the inflammation will be gone and they can do an end to end anastomosis which will keep you from having a bag. Likelihood is surgery will be in January or February just based on timing that you are posting

Slav, I think it begins next offseason. Your 2019 will be a mostly intact 2018 club minus Kimbrel. You didn't need Eovaldi to win 108 games. Losing Kimbrel and just the relative impossibility of winning 108 games in back to back seasons will lead to some sort of regression, but the sox will be a mid 90s to 100 win team again next year barring an ultimate collapse. But there is literally no way to weather the 2019-2020 offseason without significant losses on the big league roster with more coming. And it isn't like the sox can plug and play another Beni or ERod into the spots of guys moving on. I also hear about retaining Eovaldi a lot and while his post season heroics were insane, the guy's regular season track record for 2018 wasn't that great. He averaged less than 5IP for the sox. His ERA was good, but his starts were marred by high pitch counts. Overall, he threw 109IP in 21 starts, which comes out to a tick above 5IP per start. Let's say the plan is to re-sign Eovaldi and let Porcello walk after 2019. Porcello has averaged 197.3IP over 4 seasons in Boston with an average of 32 starts per season. His IP/start average is 6.2IP (actually 6.2, ie removal with one out in the 7th). Eovaldi has averaged 6IP per start once in his career and has hit 30 starts once in his career. With the Yankees he was at 5.47IP per appearance. In 2018 overall, he averaged 5.1IP per start. By replacing Porcello with Eovaldi, you are likely to save some money on a per annum contract, but you have to assume that the pen will need to work an extra inning per start. That extra inning is valuable, clearly. Also the extra starts are valuable. Eovaldi made 27 starts and then 21 starts with the Yanks. Those are his second and fourth highest start totals respectively. Replacing Porcello with him will lead to more 6th starter starts and one inning more of relief in games he can toe the rubber. The other thing the sox will have to deal with is what to do with Chris Sale? If Sale comes out firing in ST and has his usual season of 200IP, dominant starts and then fade late, do you sign him to an ace level deal? Clearly, if he doesn't go out and throw tons of innings, he isn't gonna be re-signed, but the question marks with Sale have mostly been muted by the unexpected performances of the other guys in the rotation and haven't been entirely addressed. If you re-sign Sale, he will eat a ton of your budget. If you don't, it will leave a big hole at the top of the rotation

You want him to opt out. That means he has a great 2019 as well. Currently, he’s an all stick, no glove DH who fakes it in the OF. If he opts out, that means he has another strong offensive season in the middle of your lineup. If he doesn’t opt out, then his 2019 won’t have been good. Sox fans should plan on him opting out and expect a solid 2019.

Of course, but if he can play 1b and you can keep your OF intact, wouldn’t that make more sense? Wouldn’t it make more sense to get him in the field if he is a better hitter when he’s out there? And where’s the harm in trying to get him in the field? If he goes to ST and they throw him a 1b mitt and he’s reasonable out there, then it only increases his value. If he’s entirely abysmal, then they can scrap it and have him split time at DH and OF.

I think Holt sees the lions share and Nunez is Devers insurance should the kid’s glove go in the tank. Nunez is gonna be a Martin Gonzalez type in 2019. If Pedroia comes back, then bonus. But I think he’s probably done

JD has a -5 UZR/150 in short time in the Boston OF. He was at -18 in 2017, so that’s an improvement, lol. He’s not a tick below average. He’s considerably below average. His bat makes up for it. The idea of him playing 1b makes sense. He’s an FA after 2019 and in 2019, you’ve got two GG winners and a third guy far more capable defensively in Beni.

I think Holt’s presence at least mitigates any need to spend big on second base

Feel better

Yes it does. You said "If I were to suggest Matt Barnes was worth 2 top prospects plus from another team, you’d be among the first to shoot it down as ludicrous". That was your point. Betances was FAR better than Barnes and has been through his career.

No, they aren't. But there are also plenty of guys who have the talent who shrink in the moment or flashes in the pan that fall by the wayside. Think about it. If Kimbrel blew out his elbow in ST, who closes? Barnes probably? And has he proven he can lock down the 9th? Would he have been any good? It helps to have an experienced hammer at the end of the pen. There are plenty of guys with a middle relief track record and stuff galore who just shrink as a closer. A certain 6'8" current Yankee comes to mind

The Yanks appear to be in on Marwin Gonzalez and Josh Harrison. It seems they want their own multi position player capable of filling in all over the field. I assume this is in reaction to Didi going down. No point in getting a primary SS or 2B when Didi is gonna return, but why not get a guy who can slide to 3b or the OF if needed due to injury or ineffectiveness. I do like having a swiss army knife. I think Gonzalez is the better of the two, but Harrison has his value even though he is coming off an abysmal 2018

Matt Barnes wasn't close to what Betances was. Not close