jacksonianmarch

Moon, cmon now. We were snakebit by injury and Judge's injury all but sealed the division We had a lost year from Sanchez presumably due to injury. Bird was gone from the getgo and was never right. We lost Montgomery for the year. Kahnle was hurt for practically the whole season. We lost 6 weeks of Judge. Ellsbury missed the season (no big loss). Frasier lost almost the whole year which is why we had Shane Robinson replacing Aaron Judge. We lost a few weeks of Torres due to a hip injury. We lost Didi for a few weeks with a heel and wrist. Tanaka pulled both hammies and missed over a month. We lost Hicks for 2 weeks with a rib strain CC lost 2 weeks due to a hip issue German came in and then hurt his arm Loaisiga came in and then hurt his arm You cannot count Pearce and Eovaldi as missing time since they were traded. I could do the same for Lynn, Britton and Happ. Let's use your weird mark for health Games under 155 Andujar 6 Gardner 15 Hicks 18 Gregorius- 21 Torres- 32 Judge- 43 Sanchez- 66 Bird- 73 GS'd under 32 Sabathia- 3 Tanaka- 5 Montgomery- 26 That doesn't take into account Gray losing his stones and being removed from the rotation. We had Gray going off the rails at the same time as Tanaka on the DL and Montgomery having TJS. Tell me when you had three holes in your rotation at one time? Heck, we had it for a whole month! We had one guy hit 30 starts last year and that was Severino. CC saw 29 starts. Tanaka started 27 games Gray started 23 German started 14 Happ started 11 Lynn started 11 Montgomery started 6 Cessa started 5 Loaisiga started 4 Adams started 1 Holder started 1 We had 12 starters last year. 25 starts were by either rookies or guys not established as real big league pitchers. We had to deal for two starters just to fill the rotation. Our pitching was an absolute mess last year. This year, we have durable JA Happ. We added Paxton, but he doesn't come with the rep of an iron man, so he may be some status quo. Our #5 had a stent placed in his heart and he is morbidly obese, so it isn't like he is a good bet for 30. But we have big league depth coming mid season with Montgomery. The kids who debuted last year are now a year older with that experience and all to this point are healthy. I anticipate maybe not a healthy 5 man, but a well built stable of replacements capable of getting us through the rough patches. And I highly doubt we lose 3 starters at the same time again

And aside from Kahnle, who went down with an arm injury, the above guys were awesome. We dealt Warren and the guy was having a remarkable season for us

Sanchez and his relationship with the staff isn't as big of an issue as his inability to block balls in the dirt. If he can stay healthy, his PB's will improve (they will never be good) and his power will return. He is too young and too good to stay as bad as he was last year

Machado is well above Bogey in terms of production. Sentimentality betrays you. That being said, there is no chance Machado ends up in Boston and a strong chance Bogey is here for one more year. Hence, your sentimentality will be gone

You will need both 1b and DH after 2019. Ridding youselves of Dalbec or Chavis opens up holes that you aren't even sure they can fill. That being said, if it fills a hole in 2019, you kinda go with it. This is the last year where you come into the season as the top dog or as close to it as you can come.

Sanchez was hurt all year and Judge lost 6+ weeks to an errant pitch. They'll make a run at it this year

Why blow up the team?

Our bullpen is theoretically better than it was last year. Last year we only got two months of Britton, who was fresh off an Achilles tear. We will get a healthier Britton and have him for the full year. The question is whether Ottavino can perform to KRob's level. Pitching in Colorado is very difficult. Pitching in NY is difficult for other reasons. I think we need to look at the pen guys we have assembled. By keeping Britton and swapping out Ottavino for Robertson, we have decided to go with guys who are VERY hard to lift out of the ballpark. One of the bugaboos about KRob, rightly or wrongly, was his HR rate jumping to 0.9 per 9IP. Betances jumped as well, but he wasn't a FA. The only other guy at or above that level is Green, right around 1 per 9IP. For a back end reliever, the homerun is a killer. We have assembled 5 guys in the pen lineup who don't give up HR's. Holder (0.55), Chapman (0.35), Betances (0.61 for career), Britton (0.66), and Ottavino (0.58). All of them historically strike out guys are big rates. Aside from Holder, the only major bugaboo with them is the penchant for the walk. The Yanks are betting that this dominant pen will be harder to string hits together against because it is gonna be VERY hard for teams to drive the ball. Now, we added Paxton to the rotation and should see JMont return by mid season. We also are a year deeper into the progress of the minor leaguers with guys like King and Loaisiga ready to step in and guys with big stuff in Cessa and German possibly ready to take the next step. All we need is a manager willing to use this. Girardi was willing. He would go to the pen in the 3rd inning if he needed to. Now I am not saying Boone needs to do that in April, but to fend of the sox, he is gonna need to be ready to win games in the middle innings by pulling his starters and going with strength. By the playoffs, he needs to be ready as early as the first inning.

And we had a manager who wouldn't go to them. Go figure

At the outset of free agency, Ottavino was expected to get a 3 yr deal at $11-$12 mil AAV. Getting him at 3/$9 mil is a deal. I think we offered the third year to drop the AAV. He will be 33-34-35 for the three years of the deal. His K rates are insane. He has proven in prior years to limit the walks, which is crazy considering that was the only bugaboo from last year. He’s still averaging 94 mph and he’s a large man so maybe he keeps his stuff to the end of the deal. This deal makes our pen absolutely dominant, but this deal was made for 2020 as much as this year. After 2019, Chapman can opt out and Betances will be a FA. It’s not a bad deal

Britton we will have all season. Yanks are apparently shopping Kahnle or Holder

That pen is insane. Green Ottavino Britton Betances Holder Chapman We probably put Cessa or German as the long man and we’re done

He is right. He is too big at an age when losing weight should be easy. As he ages, he will have trouble keeping it off. And it isn't like he's a ripped individual. He has a very thick lower half, meaning he is going to struggle staying quick. Just move him to 1b after 2019 and the problem solves itself

To keep the AAV low.

He’s a perennial 6+ WAR player who plays the most important defensive position well (at least when he was in LA) and is a FA after just turning 26. That’s why he’s looking at the numbers he’s looking at. Also, at 26 yrs old, he’s got a shot to actually be better for the next 7 years

It was a stupid thing to do. It literally means nothing in the grand scheme of things

If I was Cashman, I'd offer him 7/175 with $100 mil over the first 3 seasons with an opt out

And another reason why the cliff exists is, so you want to be resigning these guys to record shattering agreements? Chris Sale is a shoulder explosion waiting to happen. You want to re-sign him until he’s 37? JD Martinez has a health history and he’s gonna be 32 when he hits FA. You want him til he’s 37? Xander Bogaerts is going to get a 10 year deal. You want him for 10 years at a ridiculous price? The arguments continue from there. It’s not just the lux tax, it’s more about how much are you willing to spend and how much bad money are you willing to dole out?

The history of the free agency movement has been that the huge contracts end up driving prices up for the tiers thereafter. The more Harper and Machado make, the better the water will be for guys like Lemahieu and Didi and other guys hitting the market at the next tier. They won’t change that

Exactly. We have Tulo by the balls right now. He cannot up and retire without forfeiting the two big contract years. He’s on league minimum for this year. He’s gonna do what we tell him to do, and that very well may be to go home if he cannot play anymore

It’s not just economics 101. For the economics of a middle or small market club, it clearly is, but for large market clubs, it isn’t. Follow me for a second. A WS winning team becomes a gold mine, not just for the season they win, but for the following season or two. The players become more marketable and the city brings people in from all over to watch the champs play. The problem is, spending doesn’t always equal winning, but the spoils are there if you can take the title. For a small or mid market team, that means years of planning and developing and then winning in your tiny window. What large market clubs get to do is effectively create their window whenever they want by throwing money around, so long as they choose wisely. Their spending limits wouldn’t necessarily be the lux tax, they’d be based on revenue. Classically, the salary to revenue percentage was about 50%. Well, for the largest market clubs, their revenues are well exceeding double the lux tax line. For the Yankees, they were estimated at being under 30%. This cannot happen. For years, the owners vilified George for being the biggest spender in the sport, but having a team like NY to leverage in negotiations was good for the players. Now, with all large market teams handcuffed by the lux tax, they get to point at the lux tax while pocketing record profits. That is going to create the next strike and my guess is the Yankees and Sox will get far more room to spend.

No, that isn't the easiest solution. The easiest solution is to take everyone to camp and see how they look. If Tulo looks good, then wonderful. Run with him. If he looks like a 34 yr old shortstop coming off heel surgeries and runs like a dad, then cut him. His last healthy season was in 2016 and while his offense was pretty much average, his defense was stellar and his WAR was 3. If he hits .254 and swats 24 bombs, then he will be very useful. If he hits .240 with no power and no lateral quickness then he is done. Aaron has a tough job per se, but it's more an embarrassment of riches. Our redundancy is great now. The one thing we did not address and I really thought this was a position of need, was our vulnerability against power righties. We returned Gardner, who is 35, and added Lemahieu, who doesn't hit righties well. This was one of the reasons why we did not beat the sox. Once Porcello and Eovaldi touched the rubber, we couldn't hit for s***. But look at our positional depth C- Sanchez, Romine, Higashioka- if Sanchez is back to 2017 Sanchez, then he will dominate this position and the other two will spell him maybe 35 games in 2019 1B- Voit, Bird, Lemahieu, Andujar- Many options, one will stick 2B- Torres, Lemahieu, Tulowitzki (after Didi returns) SS- Tulowitzki, Didi (May-June), Lemahieu, Torres 3B- Andujar, Lemahieu, Torres, Tulo LF- Gardner, Stanton, Judge, Frasier, Ellsbury CF- Hicks, Judge, Frasier, Ellsbury, Gardner RF- Judge, Stanton, Frasier, Ellsbury Admittedly, I don't think anyone will see Ellsbury this year, nor do I want to see him, but right now he is depth. The infield options are many.

Andujar's issue isn't quickness, hands or arm strength. His weakness is between his ears and in his arm accuracy. He has an absolute cannon, but he seems to misfire on routine plays. He also has been known to charge balls he shouldn't or sit back on balls he should charge. The latter parts will come with experience. If he cannot get his accuracy down, though, he wont last there.

I am a traditionalist. This has been here since the beginning, it should stay the same

I still look at Devers body type and see a 1b. He is so thick in the legs. Maybe he could drop a few lbs, but the build screams power, not agility. He will be your long term 1b