jacksonianmarch

Shed Long is a legit prospect. And the #36 pick in the draft is a nice return too. I’m holding out for what the third player is

We replaced Robertson. All we need is Britton to be an upgrade over Shreve

I told everyone that the Yanks would get more than most people thought for Gray. He was dynamite outside NY and Boston. He is going to go to Cincy or SF or SD and he will be a top 10 pitcher in that league. He doesn’t have the stones for NY

They very well may be, but their career arcs haven’t been written yet.

The majority of the 2013 Red Sox have retired.

Very mature and useful response.

Eovaldi has had it done twice. That’s a rare club. Also, Eovaldi has been unable to reach 30+ starts outside of a single season. He’s frequently injured and has now had a twice reconstructed elbow.

Well, Ottavino was a very good reliever from 13-15. He blows out his elbow in 15, returns in 16 and was pretty good. 2017 saw a rise in BABIP above where he had been as a reliever by a lot and an uncharacteristic jump in walks and homers. Last year, the BABIP went down to his reliever standard, the walks came down (albeit not to where he usually sat in the 3.5 range) but the K’s rose and HRs fell off entirely. He’s a good reliever who’s experience Tommy John and one bad season over the last 4 years. He’s also added a cutter which adds to his effectiveness, a la Eovaldi

How many times can you find a diamond in the rough before just finding rough?

Victorino's WAR was 4.7. Second best of his entire career Ellsbury WAR was 4.6. Second best of his entire career Napoli's WAR was 3.4. Second best of his entire career Nava's WAR was 2.7. Career best by 0.3 Drew's WAR was 3.6. Second best of his entire career Salty's WAR was 3.5. Career best BY FAR Pedroia's WAR was 4.8. Surprisingly, 3rd best of his entire career Gomes WAR was 1.5. Even in a part time role, was 3rd best in his career Doubront's WAR was 2.2. This is almost 2/3 his career and clearly a career best Buchholz WAR was 2.8 in half a season. 3rd best in his career Uehara's WAR was 3.1. Easily the best of his career. You had 4 guys with career seasons. You had 4 guys with their second best season. You had 3 guys with their third best season. When you consider that you had ELEVEN players having their 1-3 best years of their careers in the SAME SEASON then you can say the team got a bit lucky. Especially when those seasons were accomplished by 4 players who were either late prime or older

I entirely forgot to include Thornburg. Let's look at him. 2018 stats 24IP 5.63ERA 6.04FIP 7.9K/9IP 3.8BB/9IP 2.25HR/9IP Tyler Thornburg is likely the worst trade of DD's Boston tenure. Shaw looks like a star and the prospect dealt looks like he's gonna be good too. Thornburg comes over and immediately goes down with the pitcher's deathknell, TOS. He comes back giving up homeruns at a prolific rate. He loses over 1mph on his fastball off his gravy season in Milwaukee. If he doesn't regain that velocity, he is done. Relying on him is silly.

No way a year of him is worth 5+ of Andujar. If we deal them Andujar, we better get something else in return.

This is different dgale. 2013 was never supposed to happen. Everyone had career years and they stunned on their way to the title. Once everyone returned to their norms or worse, the slipper fell off. 2018 was a loaded squad. Yes, some guys had career seasons. As a matter of fact, your 3 best hitters had either their best or second best year of their careers. But for the most part, the Sox were the best team money could buy. 2013 was a bargain basement dive. 2018 was a trip down Newbury St. Big difference. Where the 2014 Sox and 2019 Sox digress is attitude. Henry and Lucchino scoffed at the big spenders and then they fell back to the basement effectively refusing to improve on a very flawed team, even though they had the funds to do so. The 2019 team is seeing some fall off due to the loss of the pen, but you’re going up against the real threshold that has already hit your squad. If you have no first round pick two years in a row (effectively your first rounder will be a late comp, early 2nd rounder) then that significantly impacts the team you will put on the field in a few seasons. The penalties aren’t just cash. So I get that DD can only spend so much. That being said, I’m surprised he would have fleshed our the short end of a 1b platoon and your #5 starter spot while also leaving the back end of the pen blown open. This is crazy to me. If he only had $23 mil AAV to play with this year, I figured he’d grab a reliever and a starter (cheaper than Eovaldi) and use Chavis as the RH complement. Either that or deal off a guy like Vasquez or Nunez to generate some capital. Instead, it’s the same band back again without the back end of the pen. Big hole to leave open. And up until last year, DD’s biggest bugaboos have been his pens....

Yankees may deal Gray to the Reds for two prospects and their 1st round supplemental pick (competitive balance). Yankees are also in on Arenado and this may be one major reason why they aren’t in on Machado

The point is well taken, the pen you start with doesn’t have to be the pen you finish with. But it’s not like the Sox are in the AL Central and can reign supreme. They’re in a division with a 100 game and a 90+ game winner. Any drop off from stalwarts, even to mere mortal levels, would be absolutely crippling. Add to that the increased loss of leads, which will happen with the pen as constructed, and you’re talking about falling back to the pack or being surpassed. The Rays got better this offseason. The Yanks got better this offseason. If you’re not improving, you’re falling behind.

You had an elite closer and nobody doubted that. Losing Kelly and Kimbrel is a lot to lose

So your plan is to hope the 15 or so guys listed can turn into a bullpen? Getting to the point where you’re trying all 15 will cost you some games. And I’m not saying you should look for guys who can get a 4ERA. You need a guy who’s going to go sub 3ERA. I don’t see anyone on that list who you can expect to get there this year. I know the nature of pens is to be volatile, but yours is gonna be one of the most volatile in the AL, especially for a team predicted to top the league by many. Onto the rotation, Paxton was a solid 6IP per start guy until his injured arm was sore again in August, then effectively averaged 5 IP after that. When he’s healthy, he’s a 6IP per start guy. That being said, we have a deep enough pen to handle the workload foisted on them by the rotation. Tanaka and Happ aren’t deep game warriors. CC is a 5 and done kind of pitcher. The only guys who I think will go deeper into games with regularity are Sevy and Paxton, and that’s assuming good health for Paxton, which isn’t a guarantee. That’s why we can run a full pen deep and right now have a guy like Kahnle waiting in the wings who very well may end up one of the best relievers we have if healthy. My point is that you can get away with a weaker pen if your rotation is just eating innings like the 05 White Sox, but you don’t have that. Yes, your rotation will be good. Yes, they will likely be handing over a lead. But they will be handing over leads in the 6th inning to a gaggle of crap before you get to anyone who has anything close to a track record. And btw, the only guy with 2 or more good seasons out of your pen is Barnes and he’s never closed!

The reliever market is moving fast. Even one of the guys you touted hard is now in Anaheim. It seems guys who were good relievers and are either aging or coming off a down year are getting 1 years $8+ mil deals. Good relievers coming off good seasons are getting slightly more AAV but longer contracts. Brach is the last of the guys I’d put in the “good enough” reliever pile. He’d help you, but I bet he’ll be more expensive than you think

Better question for you guys. Barnes hip acts up and he’s on the shelf for a month. Who closes and which two relievers sets him up? A good pen nowadays is 3-4 guys deep (2 setup and a closer) because pitchers going past 6IP is a rare feat. Who’s your secondary setup? Who sets up if one of the above is being rested or on the shelf?

I’m not wrong. DD pulled him off the worst scrap heap you can find.

Having Kelly last year was VERY important for you. Consider this, when the whole pen is rolling, life is gravy. But by the post season, someone fades. For you guys it was Kimbrel. Having Barnes, Kelly and Brasier to pick up the slack was huge. Now Kelly and Kimbrel are gone. What happens when Barnes hits a rough patch. What happens if Brasier gets hurt? You have no contingencies

We aren’t getting Machado. I think Cashman had the option to bolster the pen or add Machado and he chose the pen. We just dropped $21 mil AAV on two relievers. I doubt we drop $25 mil AAV on Manny

I don’t get the sudden confidence in a half season of Brasier. Yes, he’s got stuff, but he doesn’t K people and has a pretty sordid production history. If he reverts to a Japanese minor league level producer, you’re sunk. DD is relying a whole lot on players who either haven’t produced to the level he’s expecting or haven’t been in the role he’s putting them in. Your rotation lacks what your team will need. Price didn’t even average 6IP per start. Sale might be able to, if he’s healthy, although that’s clearly not a given with how the season ended. ERod doesnt go deep in games. Eovaldi has never proven to go deep in games. The only guy who’s pretty much a given to average over 6IP a start is Porcello. In at least three out of five games (and maybe 4 with Sale), you’re gonna need an average of 10 or more outs from the pen and that’s assuming good health. Imagine if Sale misses time and is replaced by Johnson, who in many of his starts, didn’t finish 5IP. You’re stretching middle relief into setup, secondary setup guys into closer and mop up guys into setup and middle relief roles. I have a feeling DD has reached his financial cap and he will need to get creative in-season to add to the pen. In the interim, games are going to get interesting late in Boston

That is very true. But finding a replacement at those positions who is actually good is another story. If Dalbec or Chavis actually hit to their minor league totals, then dealing them away will be problematic for the sox. But if it brings them the needed closer or pen arm to secure another title, then you pack their bags for them. It is an interesting predicament for sure. You guys have one more great year ahead of you, although you enter the year with a hole you didn't have last year (closer, setup).

You have to use your great pen to get yourself a ring. Games 3 and 4, we were slow to pull the starter and by the time we did, the animals were out of the barn