jacksonianmarch

Every penny counts if you're trying to stay under. My bet is they get under by the skin of their teeth

He isn't being shut down because if the sox are trying to stay under, they need to know whether to tender him a contract.

Yes, for his contract. Multiple IL stints for the elbow, PRP injection, returned with horrendous results. My bet is he’s on the operating table within a month

I think you’re low on Workman, probably slightly low on Betts and high in Beni. ERod might be spot on, IMO. Clearly none of us are right, but your estimations IMO should go up by about $3 mil. Hembree is gone btw, my bet is he ends up with TJS and gets non tendered

Knowing the plan to get under the LT, then there is little choice but to deal Betts if you want to try to contend. You’ll need to spread out his value and maximize the return for a single season of an MVP caliber player. I do wonder if the Sox are rebuffed in contract talks if they swing a deal with the NYM and get Syndergaard

To get under the lux tax you need to lose more than JBJ. When I did my analysis on the Sox, I think the Sox had $26 mil below the final threshold if the whole team returned. Losing JBJ and his projected $10 mil salary still has you over the first threshold by $4 mil

Houston clinched the top spot last night. So this is the matchup. The Twins got some good news on the injury front as projected game 2 starter, Jake Odorizzi, only had a hamstring cramp and was not seriously injured. The Yanks got some good and bad news on the injury front this past week. Urshela and Sanchez returned to the lineup, but Encarnacion isn’t recovered yet and may miss the first round of the playoffs. The projected rotation is as follows Game 1- Berrios at Paxton Game 2- Odorizzi at Tanaka Game 3- Severino at Gibson Game 4- Happ (pen) at Perez Should be a good one, but if history is at all useful, facing the Twins isn’t a bad thing for us come playoffs

Not worried right now. We are pretty much locked into the Twins. Their pitching stinks and Odorizzi might be out. We need our offense healthy and we should rake

Pitcher's break. Some injuries are worse than others. Not hard to figure out. Depth on the mound is imperative in today's game. Players don't adapt to soreness or play through pain. They feel a tweak and end up on the IL for 2 months. This is what happened to the sox. Not a single viable contingency beyond the predicted starting 5. You need a good starting five plus 3-4 players who are at least capable of filling in (prospects, retreads, etc). The sox had zero

There is luck and there is skill. Getting Tauchman and Voit in minor league deals took skill. Urshela and Maybin, that's luck. Cashman had faith in German and when he wasn't a malfeasant prick, he was a good to very good pitcher. Cashman went into this season with the idea of depth in mind. Otherwise, why would you sign Lemahieu to be a bench bat? Interestingly, DJ is going to get MVP votes this year. The depth of both the farm and the free agent market made the Yanks the 102+ win team that they are. Cashman better win GM of the year. Nobody had to deal with more contingencies.

So we’re locked into the 2 seed. We will be facing Minnesota. The Twins just lost Odorizzi. It’ll be a good series for sure, but if we bring our A game, they’re no match.

The White Sox are gonna be a dark horse for next year. With Giolito and Kopech, they’ll have the horses at the front. Lopez is intriguing and Rodin should be back eventually. They have the closer in colome. They’ve got the building blocks in Moncada, Anderson and Jimenez. I know Abreu will be gone, but he’s overrated. The White Sox would be an excellent dark horse for JD

Porcello is going to go for one of those Boras "pillow" contracts. He will sign for a low guarantee with incentives for one season. I anticipate Houston is a great landing spot

The sox shouldn't be trying to win games. They should be focusing on who they should keep into next year. It's audition time

And to be honest, I don’t even think they punish people for the right reasons. Professional sports were dragged into morality clauses and suspensions for off field conduct due to the protestation of the female demographic. For year, nobody gave a s*** about the ladies and their market presence. Now that half of our population isn’t invisible, their POVs count. For years bad guys have been allowed to work by tacitly allowing their malfeasance. I’m a Yankee fan and while I believe German should be allowed to pitch again and in the pinstripes, I wholeheartedly support his suspension for the rest of the season.

He looks vintage. 98 with a dominant slider and his change looks really good. With Paxton absolutely dominant of late and Tanaka being ready for the postseason, our top 3 might be able to rival most top 3’s

We shall see. The only pitcher in this postseason that actually scares me is Verlander. Verlander 1.0 was the Yanks bitch. Verlander 2.0 Houston edition owns us. We can hit Cole. We can work Greinke. We don’t hit Verlander

EE will be back this week. Sanchez soon after. Torres got good news on his hammy. My bet is we use a postseason rotation of 1. Paxton 2. Tanaka 3. Severino 4. Happ or pen depending We should have everyone back on the offense except for Andujar, Tauchman and Hicks. We might have to stick Sanchez at DH in the first series or have him relegated to backup C and PH duties. Romine has been nails since Gary went down. The OF will be LF- Stanton CF- Gardner RF- Judge With Maybin as the 4th OFer/PR The IF will be C-Sanchez C- Romine 1B- Voit 1B- EE 2B- Torres SS- Gregorius 2B-Lemahieu 3B- Urshela We might go 12 or 13 position players as 5th starters aren’t needed. Wade is likely gonna make the team as he’s got versatility and speed. I do wonder if Gore gets carried as the 13th position player to take the needed SB The 12-13 pitchers will start with 1. Paxton 2. Tanaka 3. Severino 4. Happ 5. Chapman 6. Ottavino 7. Britton 8. Kahnle 9. Green The final 3-4 will consist of a combo of Loaisiga Sabathia Cessa Tarpley Adams Cortes My bet is the top 3 make it and we carry Gore as the 25th man

Severino has come back on a mission. If he’s healthy, and not worn down from a season’s worth of work, he could be quite the asset for us come October. He should be anywhere from 90-100 pitches come his first post season start

What is their bridge? They are 47 for 72 in save opps but have 97 holds. So their Holds+Save per opportunity is 85.2%. That's really, really good. That means that 85.2% of the time the Brewers brought in a reliever in a hold or save situation, that reliever finished their night with the lead intact. The Red Sox have 32 saves in 61 save opportunities. They have 84 holds. Their holds+ save per opportunity is 80% flat. The Yanks have 105 holds and 50 saves in 77 save opps. The Yanks hold +save per opportunity is 90.6%. The Dodgers, who have the best ERA in baseball but have been having difficulty with their pen have a 78% hold or save per opportunity. The Guardians have the best relief ERA in baseball and they are at 88%. The Astros are at 87%. The Rays are at 84%. The Cards at 89%. The A's are at 83%. The moral of the story is that the Brewers have a good pen. And while it isn't entirely above everyone else, it has likely contributed to a few more wins. Now, it doesn't take much above .500 to be in the WC race in the NL, so the attrition in the NL also helps them.. I have been saying it for years. Great closers and relievers will consistency allow you to over perform your pythag. One of the best examples was the 2001 Yankees. We overperformed our pythag by 6 games and had an 89% save+hold per opp percentage. The only year during our halcyon days was 97 where we underperformed our pythag and they didn't count holds back then. But it stands to reason, if your best relievers lock down the times they are given leads, you will preserve more leads and win games you should win. If you win the games you should win then pull out the standard amount of games you shouldn't win, you'll end up pretty good

I will never ever begrudge a person when they’re trying to find out how much they’re worth. It’s the American way

Also, nobody is saying these guys need to be rookies with their first taste of the bigs. Some of them could be former contributors on minor league deals that perform when your big guys go down

You don't have to release anyone outside of 3 guys off the 40 man. Usually teams stash some AAAA garbage on the 40 man as depth and jettison when the space is needed.

Most teams have 3 guys per year that filled in admirably. There are always injuries. Those fill ins might be 10 innings out of the pen or 4 starts worth or 2 weeks of playing the field. They don't have to be lineup stalwarts or rotation studs. Just enough depth to show the guys that your system isn't entirely dead

I think he means 3 impact players. Listen, you don’t need 3 all stars per season. But I do think you need to have 3 fill ins who at least can be average coming from within. If your core is intact and you can sprinkle in behind them with farm talent then you’re set. The problem becomes, when you need to go onto the open market to get a 2b or a bullpen or a 4-5 starter that you’re spending exorbitant money for limited return. That ends up killing your bottom line as well. Having your minor league system at least fill in the ancillary pieces can help and is necessary to stay relevant