Josh Beckett seems to be a topic of debate in nearly every thread. Important facts are being skewed on both sides of the fences here, and obviously I am guilty of this too. So lets break him down by the numbers.
2005- FLA- 15-8 178.2IP 3.38ERA 153H 67ER 14HR 166K 58BB 1.18WHIP 8.4K/9IP 2.9BB/9IP .669OPS against
2006- BOS-16-11 204.2IP 5.01ERA 191H 114ER 36HR 158K 74BB 1.29WHIP 6.9K/9IP 3.3BB/9IP .766OPS against
So obviously he was more durable last yr, but his BAA, OBPA, OPSA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9 and K/BB went up significantly and his HR rate nearly tripled. Now if you break his 2006 campaign into parts, you see this.
PreAS- 11-4 110IP 4.75ERA 100H 92K 32BB .239BAA and a 1.2WHIP. The K rate is a bit below his 2005 #s, his BAA is right about where it was before, his WHIP is nearly exactly the same and his BB rate is actually a shade better than his 2005 season. In other words, his first half of last yr wasnt nearly as bad as his ERA would indicate. The only actual indication would be his massive HR total in 110IP of 26HRs.
So what happened? He got bat shy. And at the same time he got bat shy, he developed that cut on his finger and attributed it to the curve. He stopped locating it and eventually scrapped it altogether. For proof of this, I was watching one of the NESN broadcasts on a night when the yankees were off and Remy and Orsillo were pointing it out all game. "he's lost faith in his off-speed pitches, he is afraid to throw the curveball, he cannot locate that knee buckling curve." And it was never as evident as it was in his debachle in Fenway when the yankees waited him out. He walked the park because his heater was getting drilled and they knew he couldnt locate the curveball. He was a sitting duck. Thus it attributed to his rancid second half.
5-7 94.2IP 5.32ERA 91H 66K 38BB .252BAA and a 1.36 WHIP. That high WHIP, the very high BB rate and the low K rate shows you a pitcher who lost faith in his arsenal. He got bat shy so his BB rate rose. He became one dimensional so his K rate dropped as batters knew what was coming. His HR rate dropped precipitously as he nibbled around the zone, but it came with a large incline in BAA, and for a power pitcher, a 1.36WHIP just isnt cutting it. His ERA in the second half only tells part of the story of how bad he actually was.
And for those who point to september as a saving grace, his BAA was still elevated and his K rate was still low. The one thing he was able to harness going into the offseason was a bit of control as his BB rate dropped back to normal. He is a guy who lost faith in his stuff. His numbers bear it out. This isnt about Josh "adjusting the the league" or the league adjusting to him. This is about a kid who has a dominant arsenal of pitches, even if a league adjusts to him, he should dominate. He is a kid who once showed the courage of a lion in the belly of the beast in the Bronx and came out with a ring.
This is a kid who needs to look internally for his own good. Having faith in him is useless, he needs to have faith in himself. If he doesnt, then he will regress further. But if he shows he isnt afraid of contact, he isnt afraid of giving up a few homers, then he might be able to get back to the success he should be having. But how many times have we seen someone lose faith in themselves and reclaim it in pressure situations like Boston or NY?
It doesnt happen often, but hey, it could happen.