jacksonianmarch

1.5WHIP in the NL West? Pass

I never said I believe the theory, just that the possibility exists.

or, if he were to boost the projections of his own players, they could be considered more valuable a commodity for trade.

http://www.twincities.com/walters/ci_8040073?nclick_check=1 I continue to maintain that the Yankees and the Sox want no part of Santana for the price in prospects and then cash that it would take to get him.

Gom, I dont really see your point. Matsui had the perfect set up for a down yr last yr and to be honest with you, he didnt have one. But if you are going to continually predict an older player will fail, one of these yrs you'll be right. Regardless. Last season, Matsui had an OPS right at his career AVG. He hit his 2nd highest number of homeruns. He had his second highest tally of walks. He broke 100RBI again. For the first time in a full season, he K'd the same amount as he walked. Prior to injuring his knee at the beginning of September, he was hitting .303 with a .375OBP and a .513SLG. What else do you want to know about him? By the end of the yr, that knee was so bad that he couldnt stay back. He buckled as soon as the ball came out of the pitchers hand. It sounds like he had a pretty bad meniscal tear and needed it fixed, a la David Ortiz. I dont see your point about decline. Aside from an obvious injury that made him close to useless for the last month and playoffs, he was as good if not better than he had ever been.

so you do not think that Cano will improve? Its not like he's young or has potential or anything.

The only reason why matsui's projection was so low was due to a freak injury the previous yr, NOT because of a drop in performance. CHONE ratings are imperfect in that respect. Major injuries are not taken into account as significant deviations from the actual projection. Couple things... Matsui's projection is STILL hurt by him missing nearly an entire season, even though he proved last yr that he was unaffected by it. Giambi missed half the yr as well and was never himself after the injury. If he comes back from the injury healed, which by now he should be, he will demolish that stupid projection. And another thing. I dont know how they create all of the projections, but do they take into account the team around them too? Because a guy like Damon outperforming his projection in one of his worst career yrs is laughable. Regardless, the yankee offense is deeper with a deeper bench and more power throughout. It will bear out again and maybe next yr your computer system can be right. But this yr, it wont even be close.

For 07, our starters were CHONE predicted for 800R prior to the 5% alteration. And they were 160 off.

no doubt. The sox have their ace in Beckett, but questions about whether he can do it again and stay healthy are certainly there and plausible. Which DiceK is the real DicK? Does Schill have one more yr in the tank? Wake is wake, but can he stay healthy. After that, health and inexperience in Lester and Buchholz create other questions as well. I'll tell ya what though, they should be alright in this department.

Those projections have been about as wrong as they could be the past few yrs. IIRC, the same theory predicted low 800s last season and they missed by about 150 runs. In terms of offense, I'd expect.. Posada to have a sharp decline from his prior numbers back to career norms. Giambi to have a significant increase from last yr since he was seriously injured. Cano to have a significant increase from last yr since he had that 3 mo. stretch of suckitude Jeter to be about the same ARod to be a bit worse than last yr, but still a .300 40HR 130RBI guy Matsui to be significantly better since he was hurt for parts of the yr and still had 100RBI Damon to be better than last yr, mostly because he had a horrific start Abreu to be similar to last yr but more consistent. Melky to be slightly better than last yr And Duncan and Betemit being wild cards against lefties. Take a look at the perfect storm that hit our offense last season and still resulted in a 960 run season. Matsui hurt his hammy in the opening series and missed a couple weeks. Then he hurt his knee in august and was awful closing the yr Abreu hurt his oblique in ST and was terrible to the AS break. When he finally warmed up, he was one of the deadliest hitters in baseball Cano uncharacteristically could not hit for the first 3 months of the yr. He did end up at .300, but the prior yr he hit .340 and had it not been for the slump, he would have been there again. Damon hurt his calves in the opening series and wasnt the same for the first half of the yr, refusing to take DL time. By the time we had help in the OF and at the DH slot with Betemit and Duncan, he was able to take the time needed to get healthy and contributed significantly. Giambi was lights out in April, but tore plantar fascia in May and wasnt the same. He rushed back and was awful. His injury and that surgery typically takes 6-12 months to fully heal from. Expect a resurgent Giambi. Jeter battled ailments all season long. Melky bookended a solid 4 month stint with an april and september of futility. Now I understand that this yankee team is old, and injuries happen. But the amount and the timing of the injuries last yr was pretty horrendous. And I know that as age creeps up, so does unpredictability. But when these guys were healthy, they mashed. So they didnt really show decline in their abilities, more a decline in staying healthy. Hence, the added depth for this yr should help. I still expect a mid 900s run scored regardless what that stupid theory offers.

As with every yr since 03, as Papi and Manny go, so go the sox. Last season, Manny was rather inconsistent and wasnt himself for most of the yr and hence why the sox offense looked human for good chunks of the yr. If not for the freak contribution of Mike Lowell and the unexpected contributions of Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Youkilis, then the sox wouldnt have been top 5. If Manny finds a way to stay on the field and puts up his typical .300/35/120, then the sox will be fine. Papi is another mild question mark coming back from knee surgery, but I expect him to show typical Papi power next yr. I did not expect Lowell to have a big offensive yr if he came to us in FA, so you cant think I expect much out of Lowell this yr. Likely .280 15 and 80 which is just fine for a stellar defensive 3b. The big question is if Drew can pick up what Lowell will likely be unable to repeat. By the end of the yr, Drew was hitting well, but he still didnt have the kind of lift that you would expect from a guy with his history of power. Either way, the same question marks exist, but I'd agree with talies, same s*** different yr. You'll still have a top 5 offense.

I wouldnt be surprised if Theo has quietly pulled his offer and said that he'll wait till ST. Minnesota had their chance. I honestly think they were waiting for Hughes plus Kennedy or Ellsbury plus Lester, but got none of that. In response, the two teams most avidly for the pitcher have pulled out. And to be honest with you, if you were the Twins and you saw that there was a decent chance of contention this season, would you be too averse to getting 2 top 40 picks and seeing if a Santana/Liriano combo couldnt lead you to the promised land? And with the way the Twins have drafted, I have no doubt that they could get something out of those picks. It is an interesting dilemma that I think you are certainly correct on. The Twins had the pressure on early when both teams were in it avidly. But their holding out has made both teams luke warm, and to be honest with you, the sox offer, although high in depth, is lackluster in high end talent. The Yankee offer lacks depth, but has one player with huge potential. Regardless, I dont think either of the 3 teams will be too depressed if he throws in Minnesota for 08 and hits the FA market for 09.

I totally agree. He at least has an eye for the future, something George never had. And if he starts tossing more cash into the draft and INTL pool, we might not have to worry about 45 yr old mercenaries filling in between roid injections. And as such, I think we should forget about Johan and focus on this team. I would love to have the guy, but not at the price they want. And, Johan did experience a drop in velocity last yr and a drop in effectiveness. This scares me, since I would expect to sign him to a 7 yr deal, and the last thing I would want is for him to be mediocre or injured by yr 3. Let him go.

I like Hank, but I can seriously drop my liking of him if he drops Hughes for Santana.

signing Cameron is not a good move. But the Brewers are young and good and should win that division.

Couple things on big Stein. I like the new blood and the fire that this guy shows. That being said, he talks to the media too much. At least it sounds like he has an eye to the future rather than a do or die mentality yr in and yr out like his dad had. I honestly think that both teams want to see this guy shuffle off to Queens, IMHO. Cashman and Hal dont like a 25mil contract plus 40% lux tax and Theo doesnt have a dire need for him.

There was actually a pretty good article against Rice making the hall a few weeks back. I think it was Neyer who wrote it. It made some very good points. In terms of Gossage, he was the Mariano of his time. Should have made the hall yrs ago.

Clemens is doing all he can to try and make it look like he didnt do anything. Thing is, his good buddy wrote his admission letter. Once Andy confirmed that this guy gave him HGH, he signed Clemens' destruction.

or more lefties played for us.

6?? Who? Blanton>Lester Blanton>Wakefield Blanton>Schilling (age and durability with similar softer stuff) Blanton had a better yr than DiceK too.

Blanton is a solid pitcher. He wont dazzle you. He will not be an ace. He's a #3-5 pitcher who will eat innings and keep you in the game. If you can get him without having to give up the farm, then kudos.

no more excuses for Matty? But, but, but, he wasnt healthy!! He got beaned on the head!!! He's a two bit whiny Pavano imitater!!! Pavano and Clement are made for each other. We should deal Pavano to StL so they can feed off of their uselessness.