Well, this is the price of an extra yr.
Bay is a 29 yr old OFer capable of playing both corner OF spots and CF in a pinch. He has high OBP numbers as well as good power. He should experience a nice boost from playing in the Fens. Bay is due 9 mil or so next yr and then will be a FA. But wow, the sox are giving up a lot.
Once again, entire picture. And the entire picture starts with Manny. Manny has a 30 point OPS lead on Bay this season and both play in pretty favorable parks for righties. Manny has also proven to be a damn good hitter for the sox and a clutch one at that. He also proved to be a headache. Lets call the Manny for Bay move a wash for this yr. For next yr, one should assume that Manny and Bay would likely be heading into opposite directions, but not by much.
To be honest with you, in a perfect world without antics and only looking at performance, Manny and Bay are likely to perform equally until the end of 2009 which is when Bay's contract is up and they could have gotten him as a FA. The money standpoint is an issue as well. Bay is due 2 mil this yr and 9 next, so the total price is 11 mil just on Bay. Throw in the 7 mil the sox are paying for Manny and you have an 18 mil price to be paid for your left fielder. If Manny's option was picked up, he'd be owed 27 mil, so a savings of 9 mil.
For that savings of 9 mil and likely equal performance, the sox had to give up their 2005 #1 draft pick as well as one of their top outfield prospects (who has been killing the ball in AAA this yr). The draft pick haul from letting Manny walk is the same as it would be for letting Bay walk as well, so that is a wash.
So, this deal breaks down as such.
If Bay can continue to play like this in the spotlight of Boston, then the sox essentially are getting the same production through 2009 with less headaches. They essentially trades Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen for 9 million dollars.