jacksonianmarch

John Smoltz was right above 90 mph before blowing out the shoulder. What make you think he can sit at or above 90 now? Thats the thing. Look at the recent history in high profile pitchers coming off shoulder reconstruction. Pedro- sitting around 90mph prior to blowing out the shoulder. Sat mid 80s last yr and was getting killed in the NL East Mulder- blew out his shoulder, had it reconstructed, then reinjured the shoulder, had more surgery and is now dying for a minor league deal Prior- blew out his shoulder, needed 2 more surgeries and once again is on a MiLB deal with SD. Shoulder reconstruction is not TJ. TJ surgery, guys come back throwing harder mostly because the surgery has been perfected (97% success rate) and the regimen these guys go through to get that elbow back in shape gets their bodies in better shape than before. The biggest issues with TJ are guys rushing back and hurting their shoulders. The shoulder reconstruction surgery is far from perfected. The shoulder is such an interesting and intricate joint that once reconstructed, you cannot get it back to the strength that a native, non injured joint would have been. Not the same for an elbow. Its a hinge joint that is non weight bearing. Also, the rare success stories seen to happen in the much younger pitchers like Schilling when he had his labrum repaired.

He's not a corpse, you are right. But when he was in his prime, capable of dominating any league, he was like Beckett, only better. Mid 90s heat, biting splitter, impeccable control. Well, prior to his injury, his FB sank into the 90-92 range. Now, at 41 and coming off reconstructive shoulder surgery you are likely to see a serious drop in velocity. His game was power. He'll have to: A: recover from the surgery B: re-invent himself as a finesse pitcher all in a span from June to Sept. It wont happen. If he is strong enough to come back, he'll be an AL East afterthought. I honestly think he will not have a meaningful impact on the 09 campaign for the sox

He just had reconstructive shoulder surgery. Does anyone think that this might be a massive deterrent to a 41 yr old pitcher?

Back to the topic, I do think Melky could use a change of scenery. He's a guy who does very well if left alone. We hid him in the 9 hole for 2 yrs and he was a solid CFer. Once we needed him to hit after Matsui and Posada went down, he went in the tank. I think he'd be a guy who could make something of himself in a place like Pittsburgh or Cincy where the fans dont care and he could learn what its like to play in places where baseball is nothing to the area. I still think Melky could be a .300 hitter, and the fact that he still had a market after being so bad last season tells me that other teams think the same. I just dont think he can do it here. Everytime he F's up the fans are gonna ride him. In terms of Gardner, I like him a lot. He's a gamer, but I understand he has some serious flaws. Minimal power, good eye, blazing speed. He's our version of Ellsbury. I think Gardner has the more easily reached ceiling and I do think his approach is more advanced than Ells at this moment, but I think Ells has the higher ceiling in terms of extra base hits and developing power.

in order to get him, we'd need to shed two players and in this economy, shedding 20 mil in salary to acquire a guy we'd pay 20 mil just wont happen

All I am saying is that the idea that Smoltz, at 41, on a reconstructed shoulder would be the best pitcher in any month in the loaded AL East is an absolute farce. Chamberlain, Burnett, Sabathia, Wang, Beckett, DiceK, Lester, Halladay, Kazmir, Price, Shields, and Guthrie are all much better pitchers at this point. It would take a mammoth effort to even be in the same discussion with those guys. I have said before and I will say it again. It is a long shot that John Smoltz has a meaningful impact on the sox in 2009.

John Lieber

He said the AL, not just the AL East

A .340OBP for Gardner? I'd take it to be totally honest. If he had 550PAs and reached base 187 times, I'd expect him to steal about 45 bases and be a pest.

from BBTN at 5:15pm. "John Smoltz will be the best pitcher in the AL come September" Full of s***

At this point, I go with Gardner too. I like Melky, dont get me wrong, but I think he needs a change of scenery. Plus, I think Gardner adds more to this team. He has much more speed and is better in terms of range in CF. Also, his eye is much better. If Gardner gets on base 35% of the time, then we wont even wonder what Melky could have done

This is probably the only significant battle at the beginning of camp. Catcher is set so long as Posada can throw. 1B is set with Tex. Cano is at 2B. Jeter at SS. ARod at 3rd. Damon in LF. Matsui at DH. Nady and Swish in RF. But CF is wide open especially since Girardi has said that Damon and Swisher are not the answer. So, right now, it comes down to three players. Brett Gardner, Melky Cabrera and Austin Jackson. Jackson right now hasnt even played in AAA, he likely is out. So, its between Melky and Gardner. And right now Gardner has the early lead. Gardner- 5-10, 3R, 2 2B, 2HR, 1BB Melky- 1-8 with no BB, 1K and 1 single And considering Melky is out of options, this may be the last time we see him in pinstripes

LB Michael Boley to the Gmen. Good signing. For 2009, we likely move Kiwanuka back to OLB with Umenyiora and Tuck manning the DE spots. Having Boley as the other LB and Pierce in the middle would be nice.

By labelling him "your Joba", you are trying to equate one guy who blew away the minors and another guy who was awful for a yr in the minors. So right there your point takes a bit of a hit. Saying he'll develop better secondary stuff is one thing. Saying he'll develop a slider thats considered an 80 and a curve considered a 70 is unrealistic. Most teams would be happy if he was able to maintain a breaking ball at a 50 with consistent command with that heater he has. So you are equating Bard and Joba because Bard is more durable but a clearly inferior player? Thats like saying Melky and JD Drew are comparable because Melky will at least be on the field for 150 games a yr. If you brought him along right, I think his ceiling is a Kyle Farnsworth type. Good fastball but inconsistent location and secondary pitches that run hot/cold. On days that he's on, nobody touches him. On days that he's off, he walks the park or gets smashed And you are touting his command improvement, which was there. But his 4BB in 28IP at low A for a 23 yr old isnt the biggest achievement. The fact that he jumped from 1.3BB/9IP to 4.7BB/9IP when he made the jump to AA should tell you all you need to know.

Revenue sharing has levelled the field. Since it was instituted in 2002, there has been only one team who has won 2 championships.

Joba isnt a fair comparison because its wrong. They have 2 things in common, right handed pitcher and velocity. Thats it. Joba can start or relieve, Bard can only relieve. Joba has 2 plus secondary pitches. Bard has 1 MLB average secondary pitch. Joba has control of all of his pitches. Bard has control enough to get it in the range of the plate. Bard is a project who still has a long way to go in developing his breaking ball and his command, although he took a giant leap forward last yr. Joba is essentially a finished product who just needs to stay healthy

Not bad IMO. I know relievers dont typically get their due, so I understand Melancon not being on the list. That being said, how did Bard make the list? I get the idea of the 98mph fastball, but Melancon's got the better secondary stuff, movement and location.

Melancon got his due coming out of college. He was considered a first round talent but slipped due to injury issues. Also, the intention was not to have Melancon get above 90IP out of the pen. The intention was for him to be on a pitch count. Thing is, he dispatched batters so rapidly that he wouldnt hit his 30-45 pitch count until innings 3 or 4. He was not being groomed as a closer with the way they treated him. He was almost being groomed as a long man. Every 3rd day he'd throw multiple innings. I guess they wanted to breed endurance which seemed to have been successful for one yr. Also, Melancon's stuff tops IPK rather easily. IPK, on a good day, tops off in the 92 range while Melancon sits there and has a ton of movement.

Wake has been nowhere near as durable over the past few yrs

A mercy contract? It isnt like a Bernie situation where it was clear he had nothing to offer. I do agree that Pettitte's stuff has taken a U tunr over the past 2 yrs, but he's far from mercy contract worthy. He's a durable arm to man the #4 spot in the regular season rotation and a guy who I'd say ends up in the pen if all players are healthy come playoff time. He's thrown 190IP in 11 of his 14 seasons including the last 4 where he's broken 200IP every time. And his 2008 wasnt exactly terrible. His WHIP improved from 07, his K/9IP were up to 7 from 5.9 and his BB total was down. If it wasnt for a swoon in August, he'd have been much more marketable. I can safely say that Pettitte should throw 200IP again for us and I would assume he can give us a 4.5 or so ERA, which is more than most teams can say out of their #4 starter

Why not? He's proven the minors to be absolutely below him. I agree with Diony on this one. Melancon's ceiling is closer. Not of Mo's caliber, but closer nonetheless. I do think that even if the wheels come off, he could safely be a middle reliever in the majors. Thats not saying much.

Brian Bruney was picked up off the scrap heap in 2006 and after being hot and cold for 2 yrs between AAA and MLB, he broke out with a dominant 2008 Edwar Ramirez came up in 2007 and was awful. He followed that up with a solid 2008 with a low WHIP and a very high K/9IP in 55IP Jose Veras was picked up as a MiLB FA in 2006 and after being on the AAA/MLB shuttle for 06 and 07, he puts up a respectable 2008 with a very high K rate. Those are 3 pitchers acquired or grown over the last 3 yrs who have gone from being depth to being dependable arms in the pen for at least one season. Thats a start, and considering whats coming down the line and the flashes we saw last yr, it is safe to say that the depth in our system at the pitching position is starting to be realized. Dave Robertson and his 10+K/9IP as a rookie in the pen. High BB rate did him in, though Phil Coke and his lights out late season performance Jonathan Albaladejo's strong start before getting injured I guess instead of saying churning out solid relievers I should have said, molded 3 relievers who had solid 2008 seasons and have plenty more coming down the line

Marte is gonna get dealt prior to the 10 or 15 days it takes for a player to be unconditionally released status post being DFAd. That being said, with Lars Anderson on the cusp and with Youkilis being versatile and Lowell being at the position for 2 yrs, I highly doubt that he'd choose a return trip to Boston.