jacksonianmarch

he'll show them.

The sox have gotten the starting pitching to back their bullpen of late. So all they need is something from their O and they will win. DPed can get it out of his system now. if he stays struggling, then I think there will be an eventual dip in production from the team. But they are riding a hot streak right now based on the pitching.

I hated them. I was a righty hitter, but I was much more like a lefty in that I loved the ball low and in. I could turn on that just as well as anyone out there. There was a pitcher from U Hartford that I grew up with. He was a 5'6" lefty who threw high 80s, but every one of his fastballs seemed to rise as he was throwing them. They didnt actually rise though, it was just that his spin and motion caused the ball to not drop as much as a standard pitch would. So while it looks like its rising, it is an optical illusion because your mind is assuming the ball will drop with gravity like everything else. So when it is dropping at a slightly slower rate it looked like it was rising right out of his hand. It was amazing. Every ball he threw looked like a cockshot and every time I swung, the ball ended up at chin level. If paps has that pitch at 96mph and from batter reactions it looks like he does, then I dont know how people lay off it or hit it

They can find another closer. Thats my point. See, part of Billy Beane's moneyball theory is to find value where others arent looking. And one of his theories was to nix the idea of a true closer and instead go with a good reliever in that spot. That reliever would then get saves about 75-80% of the time and magically their value would climb. The basis behind his theory is that very few truly dominant closers exist and so many teams are dying for relief help come the break. So, when he takes this good reliever and backs him with the amt of saves he now has, he has improved the players value and has a chance to get much more in return for said player. Both the yankees and the sox have that truly elite closer. Lets put it this way... In 2006, Papelbon was good for a 85% Sv conversion rate In 2007, Papelbon was good for a 93% Sv conversion rate In 2008, Papelbon was good for a 89% Sv conversion rate In 2009, Papelbon is good for a 94% Sv conversion rate Since taking the closer's role, he has saved 129 games and blown only 15 of them for a total rate of 90%. League average in terms of Sv % is 64%. Now that includes middle relievers who give up the lead in the 7th and 8th, but you get my drift. But lets take a tally of the Sv % of the top 10 closers from 2008 not including Paps... 1. KRod- 89% in 2008, career 86% 2. Valverde- 86% in 2008, career 85% 3. Soria- 93% in 2008, career 89% 4. Lidge- 100% in 2008, career 84% 5. Wilson- 87% in 2008, career 85% 6. Rivera- 98% in 2008, career 91% (blown save stat started getting recorded in 2002) 7. Nathan- 87% in 2008, career 90% 8. Wood- 85% in 2008, career 85% 9. Cordero- 85% in 2008, career 82% 10. Ryan- 89% in 2008, career 84% So look at this list. These are the top third in baseball in terms of closers. Only Rivera has a higher career save conversion rate and only Nathan can claim to be in the 90 percent range. If one assumes that a closer on the red sox will get 60 save opps a season, then the difference between 85% and 90% is 3 games. A 3 game swing in the standings is big. The sox lost the division by 2 games last yr, they won the division by 2 games in 2007 and the yankees had the division by 2 games in 2004. 3 games in the grand scheme of things is huge, and that is a per season difference.

I will call a spade a spade whether he's wearing sox colors or pinstripes for the most part. Papelbon is a rare pitcher who can combine control with stuff and an iron stomach. We have one of those, but he has publicly stated that next yr is his last big league season. So, we need to look for someone to take the load. I think we have a lot of internal options that could fit the Billy Beane catergory of closer. You know, the guy who'll convert 75-80% of his save chances and be rather dependable but not great. I just think that guys like Mo or Paps are very, very rare. Being able to pitch multiple times per week with the game on the line almost every time and shut down the opposition 95% of the time is a rare, rare entity. I think a lot of people who look at Daniel Bard and say he's Paps replacement are missing that point. I could say the same thing about Mark Melancon or a few others. I like their stuff, I think they'll compete, but I dont think they are going to combine everything needed to be one of the best. We'll see,maybe they will. But dont bet on it

I agree on that last point. Hughes has been great since going to the pen.

Papelbon and Mo were both dominant in 2006, but Paps had a better WHIP and ERA (Mo and Paps were both below 1 in WHIP, but Paps' ERA was under 1, while Mo's was under 2) In 2007, Mariano's WHIP climbed over 1 and his ERA over 3, while Paps kept his ERA under 2 and his WHIP under 1 In 2008, Mariano was the much better pitcher. He put up a 0.66WHIP, went 39/40 in SvOpps and had a 1.40ERA. Paps OTOH, had a WHIP of 0.93, and ERA of 2.34 and he had 5blown saves. And this yr, Mo's ERA is much higher, but his WHIP is 0.32 lower and they both have only 1 blown save. So, I do not agree with your point. Mariano and Papelbon are playing at similar levels right now. Granted, Mariano's 2008 was the best yr of his career.

for a good stretch, we were the better team. Thats the thing about baseball. You need your starting, relieving, defense and offense clicking to make a run. Otherwise, if one cog is out of the machine, then you will play poorly and inconsistently like we are now. Not worried though, long season left and Burnett is finally clicking it into gear. Assuming CC is okay, I think this thing is going down to the wire.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/06212009/sports/yankees/sources__yankees__prospect_have_deal_175306.htm The Yankees have come to an agreement with Gary Sanchez on a 2.5mil bonus. He is a power hitting catcher with advanced defensive abilities as a 16 yr old. He is more of a true catcher than Jesus Montero is, who most people agree will likely end up at 1b or LF. But Gary is not Jesus with the stick, while he is much advanced compared to his other 16 yr old compadres, he doesnt have the advanced approach or the contact skills that Montero had at his age.

Our offense has hit the skids. I think our pitching has been a strong suit sans Brett Tomko who I expect to be DFAd soon. The hitting will come back, our O is too good for it not to. CC cramped up in the heat and should be fine for his next start from the sounds of it. 4 games back in mid June while we are playing our worst baseball. We will right ourselves.

the best closer in the history of the game is making 15 mil a yr. The best young closer to hit the market in a down economical yr got 13 mil a yr. Papelbon is better than KRod IMO and on par with Mo nowadays, so I'd say Paps in better economic times will likely be getting 15 a yr.

It wasnt a benching. The guy has played every game since coming back from hip surgery. He was due for a break and I am glad he is getting it now.

Most people attribute the yankees consistent overachieving in regards to the Pythag to Mo. When we got to the 8th with a lead, he locked it down. Paps is in that category. Not a lot of closers share that. The day he leaves is the day the sox pen gets beatable on a regular basis

FB still 93 mph and the slider and change still biting. He is just catching a ton of plate and the hitters are seeing him really well

Nice win today. Got some offense early and Pettitte made it stick. Still think we squandered some opportunities to pile on, but the pitching was solid.

Agree completely Crunchy. Logic fail? Stupid to say the least. He'll be 30 when he hits FA and probably the most successful closer over a 6 yr span in the history of the red sox. Here's the issue with Paps. He had that shoulder subluxation episode that seems to have resolved with strengthening. That is the only reason to go yr to yr with him is health. Otherwise, right now he possesses a fastball that nobody can hit, even when they know its coming. What I do like about Papelbon is that he's using some mopup time to try out new pitches. I've seen him throw changeups, sliders and a curveball as well as the splitter that seems hit or miss. The more pitches he develops, the better he will be as he ages and the heat starts cooling off. This is something that will make him more marketable long term

Barry Bonds, as much as I hate the douche, what he did in 2001 was incredible and will never be replicated, roids or no

and as much as I hate the guy, I would love to see him donning pinstripes one day

Aside from Mo, I would take Paps over damn near anyone else. I see Paps as a mini Mo if you will. Although paps is a bit more of an *******, but who cares, right? Paps has the ability to get into trouble, bear down and say, f*** you guys, you can't hit this. Mo used to do the same thing when his cutter had about a foot of bite and had 96-98mph cheese behind it. Now, Mo relies more on location than anything else. Paps, though, can throw a 95 mph fastball that hitters react to like its 120mph. Deceptive motion + overpowering stuff + nerves of steel = dominant closer. You dont find guys like him everyday

I still dont get why this was a story. He's frustrated because he is getting nothing out of dominating AAA guys while the sox pass over him time and time again. I'd be frustrated if I was in his shoes too. That being said, he needs to work on his secondary stuff and fine tune that location even further. Cause he'll get the call next yr at the latest and he better be ready.

looks concussed

love this Gardner kid

garbage f***ing team, they should fire everyone