jacksonianmarch

I have Vaz as your 5 hitter. Dalbec has light tower power and an immense K rate. There are VERY few players who are continually successful with 30+% K rates. Very very few. And usually the ones that are have mammoth strike zones and insane exit velocities (Judge for one). You don’t know if he’s a .850OPS guy or if he ends up a Renfroe. Vaz has turned into a good hitter and JD will need someone behind him who isn’t a push over. If the bloom falls off the rose with Dalbec, JD won’t see a thing to hit and teams will go after Bobby K.

The Jays have a young core not far removed from the taxi days of the minors. They will adjust. If it was the Yanks having to do this, it would be a bigger issue

Who?

I just don't see it. You're in a buzz saw division with 3 teams decidedly better than you. Your offense is top heavy with a wing and a prayer beyond your 5th hitter. Your pen sucks. Your rotation has a recovering ERod, an oft injured Eovaldi and Richards and a s***** Perez as the only four likely to toe the slab. The 5 spot is up for grabs right now, and with the injury histories, who is your 6 or 7 right now if you have an injury and Bloom plans to monkey with Houck's service time? I know Sale is coming back, but by the time he gets back, you'll be dead and buried

The last time you moved Bogey to third he stopped being effective and went into a shell.

tinstaapp Pitchers get hurt and flame out. Now, if you have the numbers handy, how many were college vs HS and what about good solid regular starters? If Jack Leiter is the pick, makes it to the bigs by 23 and is an ERod level starter for you for 6 years, then that's a fricken homerun. You don't have the luxury of picking a Chris Sale every time you are this high

Teoscar Hernandez absolutely slaughtered JDM last year in production. Demolished. Bogey and Bichette, offensively, are real close and Bichette has youth on his side. We havent seen what he can do in a full season. Biggio also outplayed Devers last year. You arent taking a few things into account here. One is degree of separation. Just saying its 4 winners, 5 losers, we must be close isnt really very good.

How do you have the lineup set that way? Scratch that, I hope they follow your advice. Batting order determines who gets more ABs on the year. Kike Hernandez has been awful offensively for 2 years running. As a matter of fact, if he hadn't had a single outlier season in 2018, his tag line would be weak bat, versatile glove. His walk rate has disappeared. He is gonna hit some homers, but no way is he a better hitter than Vazquez. Franchy Cordero has been on the Padres (before they were good) and the Royals (after they were good) and he couldnt stay on the field. Yes, he has talent. WMP had talent too, but he just couldnt consistently hit enough to be worth it. This guy is another talented flame out of a prospect. Penciling him in above Vaz is almost criminal. You have no idea if he is even going to be physically available by opening day. He makes Stanton look like an iron man. Also, Cordero has a little issue with his in game play. The guy strikes out 35% of the time. He makes Judge look like a contact hitter. Renfroe is interesting. I had to go back and look at his stats. Holy hell, he cannot make contact. Like at all. Career 28% K rate. Career BA of .228, which btw he hasnt even reached since 2018. He's a true three outcome player with a whole lot more of one of the three outcomes (K's) than the others. Vazquez is head and shoulders above these three guys in total offensive game and should not be residing in the bottom of your order

Next winter will be really interesting for the Sox. Price is still on the books, but Pedey’s dead money falls off. ERod is a FA, so your only retained starters will be Eovaldi (last year of contract) and Sale. Bogaerts and JDM will enter their final guaranteed season as well. You’ll presumably have a better take on Casas, Dalbec, Durran, Houck and Downs. It’s less that the Sox will enter contender mode, more that they’ll be nearing blank slate mode, allowing them to spend tremendously and become a contender. Semantics i guess

I’m giving a prediction for the labor dispute MLB will get to keep their Lux tax, but rookie player control will be capped at 5 years

I think the Rays are being decidedly undervalued on here. They did lose Morton and Snell, but they are finishing their rotation with top level minor league talent, backing it with an ethereal pen and a lineup that’s really deep and good. They may not have the names the Sox have, but they have the matchup capability that would make most team’s envious. They took a step back, but I think they’ll win more games than everyone here is giving them credit for

He overestimated his market. He’s coming off a terrible season. He’s also not a front line guy. At this point, you take a 1 yr deal

Exactly. It actually shows their lack of baseball knowledge. A 60 day placement was guaranteed. It was entirely procedural.

Rocker and Leiter fill an org need and would be fast tracked to the bigs. Both of them have major league arsenals. I would probably lean towards Leiter due to pedigree. A college kid from a big program who grew up around baseball and has a big league arsenal, he's the surest bet to hit the bigs. The sox need pitching. If the dummies ahead of them leave Rocker or Leiter for the sox, they would be absolutely stupid to pass

The standard now is to have your best hitters bat as many times as possible. There’s no more “placing” hitters in the lineup. So, this is what I’d go for 1. Verdugo RF 2. Bogaerts SS 3. Devers 3B 4. Martinez DH 5. Renfroe LF 6. Vazquez C 7. Dalbec 1B 8. Cordero CF 9. Hernandez 2b

Happy that you’re excited for the season. I am too. I think you’re the only one who thinks this Sox team is playoff bound, but everyone starts 0-0. Stranger things have happened. But please don’t disappear when the Sox tank. It’s standard board etiquette to pull up old predictions and rub them in our faces. Do be around for that!

Everyone on EEI is making a big deal of the 60 day IL placement, and I don’t get it. He’s not due back til June or later. Yesterday was the first day you could put someone on the 60 day and free up a 40 man slot. 60 days from yesterday is April 19 or so. He was never due back by then. This was a foregone conclusion

Loaisiga to be a jack of all trades this year per Boone. Expect him to be an opener and a multi inning reliever. Sounds like being a true starter is out of the question due to his myriad injuries, but with his stuff, the Swiss Army knife approach would be pretty useful for the Yanks

JBJ has always “bet on himself” a la Betts, but he’s nowhere near as good as him. He misread this market and would benefit from a pillow year somewhere. Hitting in Houston and their short RF porch could really help him. He needs to think fit and stadium over money this offseason

Verdugo becomes the RFer for a long time this year. RF in Fenway is harder than CF. Put him there, bat him lead off and leave him alone.

My prediction is exactly that. I think Houston sign him to a 1 yr deal at $6.5 mil with a player option for $5 mil in 2022. This would provide him the pillow contract to have a better year, yet the security of a second season should be falter

Taillon said today that he will be ditching his sinker and using his 4 seamer up in the zone more, a la Gerritt Cole. I expect humongous things from this kid

My one concern with Gardner is that Boone is gonna go to him far more than he should. Gardy is Boone’s binky. Frazier is the future and the now, so I hope he gets ample chances to keep the spot. But Gardner provides good D, great base running, good OBP and surprising pop for a guy his size. He’s a good add for this team

1 yr $4 mil with a $1 mil escalator.

JBJ had a good defensive season in 2020, but he’s at the age that CFers start to lose a step. He is a good defender at this point, no longer a great one. That’s the issue for him. His bat can be carried when he’s a GG caliber CFer. But when he’s a good CFer, he needs to hit more to get paid and he just doesn’t do that well enough