You are making an assumption that you know what Hoyer is thinking, and you are making a pretty strong leap of faith. Take a look at almost all of these big package for premium player deals. That is what I am going off of. The top 2 prospects are typically AA or higher, then there are typically 2 prospects with high ceilings who are a bit far away. Also, it is incredibly important to note where they are in the minor league system, especially with pitchers. Every season they spend in the minors is a chance to blow out an arm. This is the basis of the oft-used abbreviation in prospect circles, TINSTAAPP. (There is no such thing as a pitching prospect). A prospect's value is based on three things. Ceiling, likelihood, and ETA. And both of the guys above lack in the last category