jacksonianmarch

Once again, that is not what I said. I said that you have been calling people out who have been concerned about Beltre, concerned that he won't produce enough in Boston. All valid concerns. Then, you make a prediction that isnt too far forward from his baseline. Listen man, you have done nothing but be in the middle of every fight on this forum since you arrived. Maybe, just maybe, if you think about it, the problem isnt everyone else.

That is optimistic, but not out of reach. Regardless, to put other people down when they question his contributions, then predict something not too far away from his career numbers is ridiculous. You had been touting him like he's some sort of savior

mind putting up a prediction or are you gonna keep dancing around it?

Catcher's position: Starting Catcher- Jorge Posada- Posada has been a stalwart for this team for a decade, but came into 2009 as a questionmark after missing 110 games with shoulder surgery. He responded by putting up his 4th best yr of his career and an .885OPS. The concern, though, is that the lower body is starting to wear on him as he missed 3 weeks with a hamstring injury. Afterwards, Girardi handled him with kid gloves. He assigned a personal catcher to AJ Burnett which guaranteed Posada a day off every 5 days and also sat him sporadically on other days as well. At 111 games, Posada posted his second lowest total since 1998 (2008 being the lowest due to shoulder surgery). Overall, it looks like Posada's bat hasnt skipped a beat, but his health seems to be doing the old age decline. He turns 39 yrs old in August, so a slip should probably be expected, although I think the slip will be in health rather than major offensive decline. If Girardi plays it safe with Jorge for this season, then I think another solid offensive yr is probable. If Girardi doesnt rest him appropriately, then his returns will diminish. The backup this yr is Francisco Cervelli, a 24 yr old catcher from Venezuela. In the minors, he was a minimal power, good eye kind of hitter who held his own offensively. In his short stint in the bigs last yr, he was more of a slasher/singles hitter without much patience. As he gets more comfortable, I expect his walk totals to reappear. At his best, Cervelli reminds me of a Jason Kendall lite. He wont hit .300+ like Kendall did, but he'll walk his fair share and be a pest at the plate. The name of Cervelli's game is defense. He has a very accurate, above average arm and very good footwork and agility. He'll replace Jose Molina's defense admirably and should perform better offensively, making every 5th day + seem a bit nice with his bat in the lineup. Down the pipe: Jesus Montero is the biggest name coming down the pipe. He's one of the best bats the minors has seen in years, and he's just turned 20. He should make his debut at some point in 2010, but I doubt it has much effect on the catchers position this yr. Prediction: Posada + Cervelli + maybe Montero should still give the Yankees elite offensive production from a primarily defensive position. Decidedly below average defense from Posada will be interchanged with the plus defense of Cervelli about 30% of the time, making the tradeoff a bit less painful. And if Posada gets hurt, we have another elite bat in waiting in AAA, just itching for the chance to hit at the big league level. This is the best position for the Yankee minor league system, and decidedly the best farm system catchers depth in baseball. This might be the yr where we see that depth getting realized, although I would bet more on 2011.

So let me get this straight... A guy with a .778 career OPS who is coming off a sub .700OPS season and shoulder surgery should not be considered a questionmark and anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot? Solid reasoning Dipre. Still waiting on the prediction btw. Time to put your money where your mouth is

I said last yr that Posada was a questionmark, and he came back and proved he was healthy. Beltre needs to do that to shed his questions. Or maybe every time you have surgery, you shouldnt have any sort of concern about a player. None actually.

How bout you move it....gasp....outside of Boston?? Easier to get to, and the majority of your buyers are going to be suburbians anyway. Put it outside of a green line stop a few miles outside of Boston. It isnt like downtown Boston needs sprucing up. But moving Fenway or Red Sox Stadium or what-have you to a developing neighborhood could significantly improve the neighborhood. Hell, just look at Foxboro for the Pats at Patriots Place. That place is a hub for shopping, food, etc, even when the Pats arent playing.

waiting on that prediction Dipre

Dipre is just being a moron now. Lowell was a return to prior success. Park effect, IMO, had little to do with it. He had an awful season the yr prior to coming to Boston. They happen. I agree that park effect is there, but I dont think it has as much to do with it as Dipre is touting. Maybe, at most, 30 points to an OPS. Some guys are more, some are less, especially when you talk about a guy like Johnny Damon, but that's a special case. My point is that Beltre has been incredibly consistent throughout his career. He had one career yr and otherwise has been in the mid to high .700 range throughout his career. To expect him to be significantly better than that is ridiculous, IMO.

Granderson is coming off a career worst yr, which is still a pretty good season. His two prior seasons in 2007 and 2008 were phenomenal. Park effect will have something to do with it, but I think more a return to his prior performance could be the reason for his return to significant success. Beltre had one season of stellar performance 6 seasons ago. Thats the difference. Also, Beltre is coming off a terrible season in which he had two injuries, one to his shoulder.

You know what, it's time you put your money where your mouth is, Dipre. You have been licking Beltre's balls ever since he signed with Boston, and while others have brought up Beltre's concerns you have continued to tell people how stupid they are. Time for you to man up and put a prediction out there, so that if he fails to live up to it, then you're the idiot. Go for it, I'm waiting.

wait, so no retort at all to my post, just to my allegiance. Then, instead of rebutting Dojji, you make fun of him. I thought you were working on becoming a better poster since your triumphant return?

now for the new ballpark...

You always make comments like that. They just arent right. He has a point, which you can counter, but both of you are right at this point A bust depends on the type of expectations set forth. If he thought that Beltre circa 2004 was the expectation, then he's a major bust. But Beltre 2005-2008 wasnt that bad. Beltre 2009 was horrid and that leaves a lot of people with concern over his play coming into the season. Also, look at Beltre's body of work. It might surprise you to see how consistent he is. Consistently average from the offensive perspective. His career line is .270/.325/.453 for an OPS of .778. He has eclipsed an .800OPS 3 times in his 11 yr career. He's been between .710 and .804 8 times in his 11 seasons. So, while you tout park adjusted stats, there is a long body of work showing Beltre's consistency. He's a mid to high .700s OPS third baseman. He has above average power for the position, but not spectacular. He is very aggressive leaving his IsoPatience pretty low. Offensively, he won't kill you, but he isnt a guy to lean on either. Exactly why the Mariners failed with him. He was expected to be a middle of the order bat. He isnt. But as an isolated commodity, an average OPS guy with above average power and a great glove at 3b is valuable. So, he's worth the money to the sox. Doesnt mean everyone is thrilled with him. Now, I do expect his offense to improve in the sox lineup and in Fenway, but by how much? That's the question. And, he's coming off an injury filled, terrible season, which clouds the predictions even further. He has a right to be concerned. Now, you try to make the comparison to Lowell, which is off base IMO. Lowell and Beltre have been playing full time for 11 seasons. In that time, Lowell has a 30 point advantage on Beltre in OPS over their careers, and Lowell has surpassed .800 6 times in his career. Plus, by removing one completely abnormal season from Lowell where he has a .650OPS over 500ABs, you see that he's been .788 or higher in all seasons after his rookie campaign. That OPS is higher than Beltre's career OPS. So, Lowell is more of a threat IMO. And, dont use the park effects for that either since Lowell is only helped by his first yr in Boston and not helped by his last 2. Regardless, Beltre is an upgrade defensively from Lowell regardless of health since Lowell couldnt move. Offensively, if he's healthy, he's a mild downgrade. If he isnt healthy, then he'll be a burden for 2010, but just a 1 yr burden

AL East Yankees Red Sox- wild card Rays Jays Orioles who cares about the rest

If Drew puts up .850+OPS seasons through 2010-2011, he'll be in line for another 7-10 million dollar paycheck. I highly doubt he passes that up. If he falls off the wagon or literally crumbles physically, then retirement might be his only choice

Yeah, I went over it in the other post. My guess is that Melancon goes to the minors and Mitre gets dealt. I bet Logan ends up in AAA, and as I recall he should have one more option yr. I just dont think the Yankees will be giving a spot to a guy like Logan who really is a lefty only specialist unless he just knocks the socks off the coaching staff in ST. He really just doesnt have the goods.

Depends on how he's used. Facing mostly righties, he's a buzzsaw. If Girardi has him facing a lot of lefties, then he'll be batting practice

People have been thinking Mariano would regress for 5 seasons now, always touting the BABIP or some other stat that predicted regression. He just keeps beating the odds. I know he cannot do it forever, but he's showing no signs of letting up Agreed on Hughes and Park. In terms of Aceves, I think his HR rate is a bit inflated. In 2008, he gave up 14HR in 170IP between the minors and majors, for a rate of 0.7/9IP. In 2009, he gave up 10HR in 84IP 1.1/9IP. Hence why a guy with a sub 1 WHIP had a mid 3's ERA. I bet his HR rate trickles down to maybe 0.8 or so and the BABIP comes up, this allowing his ERA to remain in the same area.

Well, the bullpen is on my mind here, especially with the resigning of Gaudin and Mitre and the addition of Chan Ho Park. It sounds like, barring a collapse from the Korean, Park is gonna get a shot at a 25 man roster spot. So, here are the contenders for those final spots. Also, the likelihood is that we break camp with 12 pitchers, eventually whittling it down to 11 after the first month of the yr. So that leaves 7 relief slots. 1. Closer- Mariano Rivera- old reliable. He had one of his best seasons last yr at age 39. He still shows 90+ mph velocity, but now it is pinpoint in location and with more break than he had as a youngster. He will regress eventually, and Girardi was pretty careful with him last season. But I still see a vintage Mo season out of the old guard as long as Girardi doesnt burn him early. 2. Set-up- Phil Hughes- absolutely dominant last season as a setup man who kinda got unnerved in the post season. He used his deceptive delivery to make his 93-98 mph fastball look even faster. His addition of a cutter and a 2 seamer allowed him to give different looks on the fastball to lefties and righties which made him a lot more dangerous. Last season, he used his spike curveball as his secondary pitch while only throwing his changeup 1% of the time. Girardi and Eiland have spoken to him about incorporating the changeup back into his game, not really focusing on 2010, but for his eventual return to the rotation in 2011. I think Hughes has a bit less dominant a season out of the pen (hard to continue that level of dominance) but still think he ranks up there with the best setup men in the game. 3. Setup- Damaso Marte- talk about vindication, Damaso Marte was the only guy left from the 2008 trade that brought him and Nady to the Bronx in exchange for 4 prospects. Well, Marte promptly got hurt in 2008 and at the beginning of 2009 and was pretty much an afterthought until re-appearing as a reliable reliever in the post-season. Marte showed the velocity he was lacking in ST from 2009, which made his re-emergence that much more important. I think Girardi will be handling him with kid gloves since he's fragile and he's under contract for another season. I do think he'll be the lefty portion of the setup tandem with Hughes, operating the 7th or 8th innings depending on which inning has more lefties. He should improve upon his horrid, injury filled two seasons in NY with a good one this yr. 4. Middle Relief: Chan Ho Park- I know Dipre has been touting Park's re-emergence as a potent arm out of the pen, but really, he's had one solid season out there. If he can stay on the mound (he is injury prone) and is used appropriately as more of the righty specialist, he could be useful. If he is pressed into later inning duties, then I think we're in trouble. 5. Middle Relief: David Robertson- with Park being a question and Marte's health always a mystery, David Robertson has the most to gain this season out of the pen. Especially since Hughes seems destined for the rotation in 2011, Robertson could propel himself into primary setup duty talk for 2011. He is a small guy with a deceptive motion. He throws low 90s primarily, but the motion makes it look a lot harder and he possesses a spike curve that is just filthy when it's on. And, if his post ASB numbers are any indication, he's only getting better. People forget, that he doesnt turn 25 until mid April. He's still a young kid. Post ASB #s- 21IP 20H 7ER 7BB 29K. He is a strikeout machine who should see his overall usage improve with his improvement in command. I think this kid will be doing big things in the Bronx this season. 6. Swing: Alfredo Aceves: As I said in another post, this guy is the glue of the pitching staff. He is always ready to throw and will throw multiple innings if asked. As a reliever, he had a sub 1 WHIP last season while putting together double digit wins and a very respectable K rate. He is a strike throwing machine as well. He should continue to pitch well this yr, as I expect his BABIP to correct but his HRs to dip a bit On to the final spot in the pen. The above 6 guys seem to be locks to start out in the Bronx. But here are other guys available Chad Gaudin- pitched well enough as our #5 starter to keep us in games, but is really a mediocre starter at best. His control limits his effectiveness as a reliever, but he could be a useful swing guy, especially early on. Thing is, Aceves is already entrenched in that role, so that could lead Gaudin to be dealt or released should he be beaten out by others on this list. Sergio Mitre- Mitre is post TJS, so he was given some slack. Now in his second yr, he should be counted on to be better than last yr, but that isnt saying much. On a team hurting for pitching, Mitre could be a valuable swing guy should he prove healthy. But he shouldnt be in much demand in NY and I can almost guarantee that barring major injuries in ST, he'll be on another team come April Boone Logan- loogy reliever who is good vs lefties and a BP machine against righties. His stuff is good which kinda makes you scratch your head. But he will get a shot to be the second lefty, although I think he ends up in the minors Mark Melancon- my dark horse for that last spot, probably gets kicked to AAA with the Park signing. He's got it all. The stuff, the makeup, all he needs is the experience. Looks like he's blocked for one more yr. Eventually, he'll be a back end arm for us, but doesnt look like it will be this season Thats about it. I think this bullpen has its problem areas, especially when you talk about the 3 pitchers over the age of 35, but there is good redundancy in needed areas and there should be a pretty good progression at the back of the pen. Assuming good health, this pen should rank up there with the top pens in the game. Especially with Hughes and Mo back for another round. But a lot of their success will be measured by how well Aceves does in yr 2 and if Robertson can take that next step. Regardless, I think the pen comes out of ST as a non-problem area, unlike last yr

He's probably due for a bit of a rebound, although for a guy with a WHIP under 1 as a reliever, his ERA in the mid 3's is surprising. I bet that his BABIP corrects but his homers come down, and his ERA stays about the same. Regardless, having a guy like him as insurance for your starters is crucial. Especially at the beginning of the yr when your starters are on pitch counts and bad weather could lead to rain delays.

I was surprised that he was as dominant as his number suggest. It was just incredible how he'd enter games that we'd trail 5-3 in the 5th inning and just unspectacularly shut down the opponent until the 7th inning when we handed it off to Robertson or Hughes, and surprisingly, we'd be winning. I know wins arent a good barometer of performance, but for a reliever in his position, it is. He won 10 games in 42 appearances. Meaning that the outcome was in doubt, either tied or losing in 10 games that he entered, and we came out victorious Also, in 30 of his 43 games, he threw more than 1 inning, which shows just how vital his role was. Moving him to the rotation in AAA is a bad, bad move

Long term, hmmm, that's tricky. Thing is, if Montero was the only catching prospect in the system, then it would be easy. But with Romine, Higashioka, Murphy and Sanchez behind him, I see Montero moving off the position as he gets older. He'll probably be a C/DH in 2011 for Posada's final season. Will probably man the same when Romine comes up in 2012 after Posada retires. Then will likely be the DH/1B as Tex gets older. Eventually, by the time he's 26, Tex's contract will lapse and I think Montero ends up there. Regardless, my prediction is that he's an opening day starter in 2011 probably at DH in the #5 hole behind ARod.

Aceves in AAA? Dude, the guy was the glue of our bullpen last yr. He relieved in 42 games, throwing 80.2IP. His BP ERA was 3.35 with a WHIP a shade under 1 and 7.5K/9IP. On a lesser team, he probably would profile in the rotation due to his multitude of pitches and control, but even at his best, he doesnt appear to break the rotation in NY. He has a great niche, he is our new Mendoza, a guy who can come in for multiple innings when the starter gets hurt or shits the bed and keeps it close. He is vital to the success of this team in his role. While Hughes, Marte, Robertson, Rivera and now Park hold down the later innings, he is the savior of the middle innings. We need that.

I have a feeling that he'll be working his way into a platoon at DH as well as the primary bat off the bench come September and October. He'll probably spend almost the entire season in SWB before coming up prior to Sept 1 so he can be eligible for the playoffs. Also, should Posada, Tex or Johnson get hurt, Montero will probably get a look