Bosoxwest

BS07 is of course completely correct. In fact, everyone is completely correct. Only a cartoonishly stupid person couldn't predict that there would be a huge market for Drew's skills, and Boras, while soulless and evil, is not stupid. In a related note, Murray Chass is extremely good fodder for mockery. I took some liberties with him (and others) in an old blog entry which can be read here: http://bosoxwest.blogspot.com/2006/09/newsflash-murray-chass-revealed-to-be.html. It ws just for fun, so don't get all crazy. He does ask for it.

Injury-prone high-upside reliever for less injury-prone middle-upside starter who can't find the plate. Yeah, I think you gotta go "Winner: Atlanta" on this one, unless Seattle is trying to sneak something past the physio table here.

It's not as black and white as a philosophy of "don't spend" vs. "spend". The FO has stated they will spend but not beyond perceived value. There have certainly been instances where the valuation process has been off, but I don't see any shift in philosophy here. In terms of pure payroll, Schilling comes off the books next year, and Manny the year after that. In that interim period indicators are that top tier free agents will continue to inflate in price, so they may feel that the value proposition is signing these guys long-term now. In terms of current market value the two recent deals are not that insane really. Carlos Lee recieved $3.7 Mil per year, per WARP (based on his 5-yr avg.), which is ridiculous. Drew received $2.5 Mil per, and Lugo $1.9 Mil per, based on the same. Of course Drew has injury concerns but a couple of those really are fluke, and there are no guarantees for any player. It's a risk, and time will tell how it pans out. The FO has made moves to try to acquire cheap talent through development (Paps, Lester, Pedroia) and trade (Crisp, Beckett), and now as a big market team are spending to acquire needed top-tier talent. It's in keeping with what I would expect from a $120Mil payroll team, from a fiscal perspective, and I think it's in keeping with their fiscal philosophy for the past 3-4 years. Also, I don't think anyone can argue it's not in keeping with what needs to be done to compete with the current Yankee roster. Look again; they are simply stacked. Now, in terms of talent evaluation, we certainly have some bones to pick with the FO, but that's another few threads...

I don't think we know what Hansack is yet. Remember, he was out of baseball for two years. He's pretty damn likely to end up as filler, but if his upside is a trading chip after a few successful low-lev innings, I'd take that. Just to play devil's advocate though, I'll point out that we've got a thread dedicated to acquiring Brendan Donnelly going on and he didn't hit the majors till he was 30. So strange things can happen. True, he had more development time, but he also had more miles on the arm.

Donnelly would be nice to have, but under no circumstances do we deal a Kris Johnson for him, I hope. Delcarmen, at 24 and injured, put up the same to better numbers than Donnelly last year. Donnelly's DERA was 4.39 to Delcarmen's 4.71 and he edged him in H/9, but Manny had him beat in K:BB, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and DH indicates Donnelly was "lucky" whereas Manny was not (-4 to 11). Just based on age, but also trending, we can probably guess which of the two is likely to improve (and regress). Also, I am personally of the opinion that at some point Donnelly's mechanics will cause his head, shoulder and arm to fly off into the dugout, but I'm omitting that from my analysis. I like the Murphy/Gabbard deal proposed earlier, though!

He's still undecided, yes. Per Rotoworld, Yanks have offered 1 yr/$15mil: http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/playerbreakingnews.asp?sport=MLB&id=2021&line=197664&spln=1

Per CNN/SI: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/tom_verducci/12/05/yankees.pettitte/index.html

Guys, see above - oh forget it, I'll link here again. It appears Manny is not going anywhere. Linky.

As long as it's turbo-powered. The Sox might be able to get a two-for-one so he and Papi can race. Sweet.

Yeah, it seems utterly insane. On the other hand, the way this year's free agent inflation has gone, by 2010 he could be bargain. Who the hell knows which way the wind's blowing these days. Not me.

Per Si: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/baseball/mlb/12/05/drew.redsox/index.html This came around the same time as the death of the Manny trade talks. Make of that what you will.

Manny talks about kaput, apparently. One GM is calling the Sox' bluff, too (although anonymously). http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/baseball/mlb/12/05/manny.trade/

Respectfully disagree. Yes, Gagne at his peak was more dominant than Foulke at his peak, but Keith Foulke in the 2004 post-season, with a fastball that barely touched 90, had an ERA of .64 against the LAA, NYY, and STL. 19Ks in 14 IP. To me, that is the ultimate stage, and he has proven himself there. I'm not looking AL-NL differential since it's probably moot for our purposes, although would have to be considered in a straight comparison. Foulke's out pitch, like Gagne's, is the change. Like Gagne, if the fastball is not there, the change is not there. They are both in the same boat in that respect. Gagne has the benefit of the curve, but without the change he's not great. The key, key piece of datum here though, is the health. Foulke, at last sighting, was far far advanced of Gagne healthwise. Also, Foulke, having never had a great fastball, relied more on location, something that isn't certain to diminish with age. Also, as has been mentioned earlier, there were certain "flags" around Gagne's performance and subsequent injuries that were not seen with Foulke. Unproven, but another risk modifier. Like everyone else I'd be fine taking a flier on Gagne at a cut-rate price, with performance incentives making up the meat of the contract. I'm just saying that with what we know now, I'd give a roster spot to Foulke first if forced to choose. Gagne hasn't pitched really at all in two years, any expectations we have for him are pretty pie in the sky.

I like that you do this Beckett, it's a fun exercise. The biggest fear in this lineup to me is the same one we saw hit us in 2006: injury. Manny is likely to miss time. Drew is likely to miss time. Wilson is done and Hinske can't hit lefties so that's kind of a scary situation there if they both go down. With that in mind I just don't see them giving up on Crisp just yet, at least not for a kid who's got just one season setting up in the NL under his belt (in spite of pretty good peripherals and a good pitcher's body -not knocking Capps). I think we'd need more back. Crisp to Colorado for Ubaldo Jimenez and Ryan Spilborghs might kill two birds with one stone. Jimenez has great upside but an injury history that might allow them to trade him, and Spilborghs right now appears to be an untested Crisp - better than his tools, good bat, good corner OF/middling CF guy - without the speed (which the Sox ignore). I mean, as long as we're throwing stuff against the wall, I'll play

Wait, this is hilarious. Both pitchers were great, then got hurt and were not good due to injury. But, somehow, simply by dint of having never pitched for the Red Sox, Gagne is still awesome and only needs to be healthy (in spite of having major elbow surgery and two disc issues which generally don't fully heal) to be great again, while Foulke has simply lost all ability. I love this town.

This is almost a detractor from the signing in that the short stint of transcendant pitching has created a price tag that is in no way consistent with the injury laundry list. The numbers that have previously been thrown around for Gagne thus far are absurd. Foulke when healthy was one of the best closers in the game and we kicked him to the curb (maybe) no problem - and he actually threw last year. If I had to pick one reliever to sign on an incentive-laden deal, assuming all things were equal, I'd prefer Foulke, Johhny Burger King aside. Gagne's injuries are just too scary.

Christ, Callaghan's article is a contributor to Manny being dealt for less than we all think the Sox should have received. How does it help the hometown team for the local media to churn out bizarre articles that demean the trading commodity during the freaking negotiations? For f#%^'s sake, Callaghan, who the hell are you rooting for?

I wonder if the Mariners/Sox would do Manny/Youks for Putz/Sexson/Morse/Ichiro (would Ichiro come here to be with the other two japanese guys?)? Putz closes, obviously. I'd probably be OK with an outfield of Crisp (and/or WMP)/Drew/Ichiro, Sexson's bat protects Papi, and the Sox could see if they catch lightning with Morse at SS. He was once touted. Ichiro is older, but his fitness is pretty impressive, he hasnt dropped off, and Fenway's short RF porch would suit him at the plate. On Seattle's end, Jones could play right and Lahair beat the crap out of Tahoma last year, and they save some money and get a decent young player in Youks. So, if Lahair pans out they can move Beltre, or if not, they're set. Ah, random speculation. Good times.

There should be two awards for sure. But I disagree with Pujols' point, as it relates to the current system. A goodly portion of teams have almost no chance of making the playoffs, so to take away the MVP award from those teams will hurt them even further - who's going to go to/stay with a team if you cannot win the MVP before the season even starts. Moreover, under Pujols' argument, where do we draw the line? Now, according to him, you have to make the playoffs. Next year, maybe you have to get through the first round. Then you have to get to the Series. Then you have to win it. The award is most valuable player, which in it's simplest definition just calls for the player who has the most value to his team relative to all the other players. You could almost argue the other way - no one on a playoff team should win MVP because they are obviously surrounded by better players who help them out. So their relative value is less. It's semantics, I realize, but I'd hate to take that goal away from guys who are playing their heart out for crappy teams.

CNN reporting Manny has increased his "wish list" to 13-14 teams. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/jon_heyman/12/01/scoop.friday/?cnn=yes Definitely seems to want out.

Somewhere in there there's a fair point, but you're overvaluing Lugo and undervaluing the draft pick under the new CBA. The painful aspect of this scenario is that in order to vastly overpay for for a guy like Lugo (and Drew, and Dice, and Tek) you have to balance that with players you develop yourself, and the Sox understand that. Now, in the past, losing a first round pick hurt, but was mitigated for teams like the Yanks and Sox because they could wait and get "signability issue" guys in the later rounds because small-market teams couldn't afford to. Under the new CBA these small-market teams will be compensated for going after one of those guys and losing him, so the draftees are much more likely to go according to slot. As you correctly noted, very few guys drafted become impact players in the MLB. This is almost exponentially true for every player drafted AFTER the first and second round. Philly at SOSH did a great study here, and this was based on the old method of signing players above slot in later rounds after they dropped because Boras was their agent or whatnot. Now the numbers will skew even higher for the top picks. Long story short, teams need first round picks to develop premium talent. Obviously there are international signings and long-shot "diamond in the rough" signings, but the probabilities lie in going with the nationally recognized top tier draftees. Again, the Sox are backed into a corner here and probably will have to sign Lugo or get creative, but nobody should be particularly pleased about the Lugo signing from a value perspective.

Ugh. I mean, just, ugh. Ugh.

Yup, this pretty much sucks. $9M a year (for four years) for Lugo whose on the wrong side of 30 and wilted in LA, plus giving up a first-rounder, or Cora. Brutal. I'm now leaning to the "throw something at the Rockies for Clint Barmes and see if he can be taught to hit" camp. I'm half-joking of course, but there is some fear that Lugo will regress in the pressure dome, and that's a lot of money for his 2002-3 self. What are you gonna do? In a semi-related note, Mr. Garciaparra Mia Hamm was just interviewed on ESPN. Sadly, the interviewer failed to ask about how many times Nomar obsessively adjusted his "glove" while in the saddle.