You're right that once you get to the playoffs, you have a 1 in 8 chance to win the WS. Anything can happen, look at the 2006 Cardinals. However, team's talent plays a role, obviously, and the Rays are a better team than the White Sox. 9 more wins, but more importantly, .7 runs more per game than their opponents, as opposed to .5 for Chicago. TB has much better pitching too.