TheKilo

THE NEW YORK YANKEES (63-42) [table]Date|Opponent|Series Outcome|Record 8-4/8-5|@TOR|1-1|64-43 8-6/8-9|BOS|3-1|67-44 8/10-8/12|TOR|2-1|69-45 8/13-8/16|@SEA|3-1|72-46 8/17-8/19|@OAK|2-1|74-47 8/21-8/23|@BOS|1-2|75-49 8/25-8/27|TEX|2-1|77-50 8/28-8/30|CWS|1-2|78-52 8/31-9/2|@BAL|3-0|81-52 9/3-9/6|@TOR|2-2|83-54 9/7-9/9|TB|2-2|85-56 9/11-9/13|BAL|2-1|87-57 9/14|LAA|1-0|88-57 9/15-9/16|TOR|1-1|89-58 9/18-9/20|@SEA|2-1|91-59 9/21-9/23|@LAA|2-1|93-60 9/25-9/27|BOS|2-1|95-61 9/28-9/30|KC|3-0|98-62 10/2-10/4|@TB|1-2|99-63[/table] In my opinion, the Yankees are the best team in the American League East. I think a 35-22 mark from here on out is more than doable, especially with the schedule they have for the rest of the season. Most Important Players: Alex Rodriguez - It seems that the Yankee offense goes when ARod goes. When he slumps, it seems the whole team's offense slumps. The question becomes, how does ARod's hip hold up over the final 57 games? Joba Chamberlain - He has put it together in his few starts past the All Star break. Can he be the reliable third starter that New York needs him to be down the stretch? I think he will (and not just because I drafted him in AFL), but I believe he has made the leap that Red Sox fans saw Jon Lester make last season. It will be interesting to see how the Yankees deal with his innings cap.

So, 2007 means nothing, seeing as it's been Carmona's only good year ever? And he did catch the Cy Young winner that year as well. In fact, Martinez has caught the last two Cy Young winners!

No one remembers Jon Lester circa April 2008, before the game against Halladay? Let me remind you. Here are his first six starts of 2008: 1-2, 5.40 ERA, 37 H, 19 ER, 19 BB, 16 K, 5 HR, .301 BAA, .890 OPS against. Yeah. Awesome numbers from "Teflon Jon"

THE TAMPA BAY RAYS (58-48) [table]Date|Opponent|Series Outcome|Record 8/4-8/5|BOS|1-1|59-49 8/7-8/9|@SEA|2-1|61-50 8/10-8/12|@LAA|1-2|62-52 8/14-8/16|TOR|2-1|64-53 8/18-8/20|BAL|3-0|67-53 8/21-8/23|TEX|2-1|69-54 8/24-8/26|@TOR|2-1|71-55 8/28-8/31|@DET|2-2|73-57 9/1-9/3|BOS|2-1|75-58 9/4-9/6|DET|2-1|77-59 9/7-9/9|@NYY|2-2|79-61 9/11-9/13|@BOS|1-2|80-63 9/14-9/17|@BAL|2-1|82-64 9/18-9/20|TOR|2-1|84-66 9/22-9/23|SEA|2-0|86-66 9/25-9/27|@TEX|1-2|87-68 9/28-10/1|BAL|3-1|90-69 10/2-10/4|NYY|2-1|92-70[/table] 92 wins for the Rays? Close the season on a 34-22 run? It's certainly doable, especially if Longoria comes out of his funk (which I fully expect this week against Boston). It will be interesting watching this team come in for the stretch run. Most Important Players: Evan Longoria - Sporting a line of .218/.320/.412/.732 since June 1, Longoria needs to snap out of his funk is Tampa has any dreams of playing in October. David Price - Dynamic young left handed fireballer, having what can only be seen as mixed results at the big league level. If he can put together a string of quality starts in a row, it will increase Tampa's chances even more.

Now let's have a look at each team's Pythagorean records, through yesterday's games: [table]Team|Runs Scored|Runs Allowed|Actual Record|Pythag. Record|Difference Tampa|544|469|57-48|60-45|-2 New York|581|510|63-42|59-46|+4 Boston|548|452|62-42|61-43|+1[/table] Tampa was really hurt by a poor start. Their run differential has been pretty good all season, but the bullpen magic that was there last year has not been there this season. The Yankees and Sox are each outplaying their pythagorean record, but the Yankee's +4 mark shows there's a potential for some regression there. For the first time in the history of the KiloMetric, the Sox are actually outperforming their pythag at the time the predictions were made. The last important factor I consider is strength of schedule the rest of the way for each team, noted below: [table]Team|Opp. Win % Tampa|.527 New York|.515 Boston|.514[/table] It appears Tampa has quite the hole to climb out of. 5 games in the hole with 57 games to go, and the most difficult schedule for the rest of the season? All signs point to Tampa being on the outside looking in come October. Team predictions to follow...

Give me a f***ing break, why can't the pitchers ever be accountable?

Quit mucking up my thread. Jacko, if you can post enough to be a dick here you can make your picks in AFL. I'm getting tired of people being skipped constantly. Anyways. Last year's KiloMetric was conservative in the predictions of the Red Sox (92 predicted, 95 actual), Rays (94 predicted, 97 actual), and Yankees (89 predicted, 90 total). In the first version of the KiloMetric, I was also pretty conservative with the Yankees predictions. Are we noticing a trend here? This season, normalcy has been restored to the AL East. The Sox and Yankees are battling it out for the top spot, but the Rays have kept it close enough to make it interesting. This is arguably the most crucial stretch of the season for the Boston Red Sox, which will make these predictions even more interesting. Let's begin by taking a look at the team's home and away splits: [table]Team|Home Record|Away Record|Home Games Left|Away Games Left Tampa Bay|34-18|24-30|29|27 New York|35-17|28-25|29|28 Boston|35-17|27-25|29|29[/table] Interesting that every team has 29 home games remaining. Sox and Yankees have equivalent home records and TB is just one game back. Where Tampa has lost ground is their poor road record, but they have the fewest games remaining on the road for all three teams.

I can't copy quotes from locked threads.

http://www.talksox.com/forum/436551-post387.html http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/10992-kilometric-part-deux.html http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/9516-kilometric.html It's becoming Talksox tradition. For those who are unfamiliar with the concept, I predict the outcome of the Yankees, Sox, and Rays series the rest of the way and predict who out of the ALE wins the division. It's coming, it will be in place by the end of the night, so get psyched.

http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c367/bosstones58/BeatDeadHorse.gif

So, Dojji, what do you think of Clay Buchholz? I really don't think you've beaten that horse enough yet.

Could you be more butthurt about it?

Thanks for showing up, Zack. 4-1 TB

Alex Speier is really good. McAdam is clearly intelligent and nows what he's talking about. Law and Crasnick are OK, Olney is hit or miss. Benjamin and Kilgore are "meh". Mazz lets his personal agenda shine through too much. Rosenthal, Cafardo, Shaughnessy and Gammons are the worst. I don't think anyone has disparaged anybody other than those four.

Kelly, Westmorland, and Tazawa won't be traded this offseason for a variety of reasons, and Bard should only be involved in talks for Felix or Gonzalez.

Any thoughts on giving Bowden or Tazawa a shot, and moving Smoltz into the bullpen and assuming Masterson's role? Smoltz v. RHP this season: .247/.266/.416/.681, tOPS of 52, sOPS of 87 Smoltz v. LHP: .397/.440/.654/1.094, tOPS of 146, sOPS of 180

Cafardo is especially bad though, I could cite examples if you'd like.

Eckersley is awesome, he should totally take Remy's place.

I think we need to make a trade. How about DiceK/Buchholz/Anderson/Tazawa/B or C prospect for Santana and David Wright? Or DiceK/Buchholz/Youkilis/Ellsbury/Pedroia for Felix Hernandez and Ichiro?

Are you really this dense? DiceK should be kept because he has had success in the AL East and has been a "maddeningly" effective pitcher for the Sox when he is healthy. However, when he is not healthy, he is not an effective pitcher and therefore does not have any trade value. In essence, you are saying "DiceK is comparable to Peavy and Webb, except when they are not, and DiceK wouldn't command as much in a trade as those other two. Fantastic.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view/20090803tim_wakefield_still_hurting_2nd_cortisone_shot_for_pain_a_possibility/srvc=home&position=recent

Peavy and Webb have proven it in the Majors for years, and have won Cy Youngs. DiceK has not.

DiceK has zero trade value right now because he's not healthy. Also, if Nick Cafardo agrees with you, it doesn't say much for your argument.

RBIs are worse

Sig'd