By not trading for Santana, you were essentially hoping for some kind of Mussina rebound...only the Yankees didn't have the pitching reserve the Sox did (which is why guys like Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson made multiple starts for the Yankees this season.)
Can we agree that not landing Santana was a larger error for the Yankees than the Sox? I think even you can admit to that.
4th.
My point is if you feel Schilling and the rookies were of more value at ~$9 million than Santana was at ~22.5 million, the correct move would be
No, because even with the evidence put in front of you you fail to understand that as a unit the three Red Sox players were more valuable than Santana on his own.
Again, no it was not.
Wins ABove Replacement Player.
In terms of WARP1, the most conservative stat, the trio held a 12.9 to 8.6 lead over Santana, for 5% of the cost.
I don't know how to make it more clear than that.
Flawed? You made up your own statistic and passed it off as some kind of intelligent way to make a point. Give me a break.
My cognitive thought process tell me I want the trio of players who exceeded Johan's value for 5% of the cost, because that's the best baseball and business decision.
His strikeouts are down and walks are up (a) moving to an inferior league and ( moving to a pitcher-friendly park. That is a significant concern, to me, for a guy you'd pay $22 million.
I was wrong - he may not be a $22 million pitcher going forward.
The Sox couldn't have gotten Santana without Masterson, so this point is moot.
So basically, you admit to fabricating some useless statistic and try to use it to advance your argument - whereas I use a commonly accepted one and get criticized for lacking cognitive thought processes.
I'm still waiting for you to try to refute the WARP numbers. Tell me how Santana makes up for the loss in the bullpen and requiring us to play Alex Cora at shortstop every day.
Oh, and also, tell me how we fill all of our outfield positions after Drew got hurt in August.
Oh, and tell me how we'd replace our 1B when Lowell got hurt, because Kotsay would have to play in the outfield.
Go ahead, tell me how an upgrade in one position is worth a downgrade in three.
Then what's the point?
Keep looking - maybe you'll find one this millennium.
The "flaw" of my argument (and one you seem to completely miss) is that unless the replacements for the players being shipped off exceed the value of the player returned (and WARP tells us this is not the case) - then it's prudent to question, and sometimes turn down, the move.
Probably, only because Pujols directly fills a need for the Sox better than Santana would have for our rotation.
The value of Pujols playing every day is probably worth that deal especially since he's so much better than Youkilis or Lowell.
Is the half run ERA difference really that significant between Santana (3.33 last season) and Schilling (3.87)? For $22.5 million?
In this debate, you get distracted by shiny things (the superstar) but fail to recongize the ramifications of overspending for talent when there aren't adequate replacements.
I have asked you time and time again to refute the WARP numbers. How can you say Santana was the better choice if by himself he was only worth 8.6 wins above a replacement player when the trio of Sox players was 12.9? For 5% of the cost?
Tell me why Santana is a better value (and don't give me arbitrary things like 'you'd be in the World Series' because that isn't a given - what if Santana lost in the ALCS too?)
So go ahead Gom. Enlighten me.