I disagree solely on the fact that recent performance is the best indicator for how players will do this season. Granted it is never 100% accurate (see pavano) but it is close enough. I like the way the yankees ended the season pitching wise. Chacon and Wang were lights out and thus far have been solid this spring. RJ is gonna be a horse if he can stay healthy this yr. His stuff has never been the problem, it was the philosophy IMHO (fuggin Mel). He threw way too many sliders and now he has developed his splitter to a point that it may be a reliable 3rd pitch (10-20 times a game) and be enough of a distraction to make him more powerful. I think the yankees 1, 3, and 4 in the rotation will be solid with 2 and 5 being the huge wild cards. If Mussina can stay healthy, there is no questioning what he brings to the table. If he stays healthy, then we will need very little out of Pavano. If he is not healthy, then Pavano will have to get healthy himself and be strong for us, something I am not counting on. I think last yr, towards the end of the yr, we showed that our rotation is something to be reckoned with. We have 2 young guys who are capable of handling pressure in Wang and Chacon (their performance in the ALDS was inspiring) as well as 2 grizzled vets capable of being top of the rotation starters if they stay out of the trainers room. Our only question is health. If the yankee staff can stay reasonably healthy 1-4 and the 5 spot isnt a total black hole, then this team will not only win 100 games, but will advance deep into the playoffs. If the staff isnt healthy, I still think the pen and the offense are good enough to make it to the playoffs, but it will likely be another cold and lonely winter in the bronx.
As for the sox, they have many question marks on players who did not finish strong. Schilling was awful last yr. Beckett was terrible outside of Pro Player. Wells was your most consistent guy, but he was hurt for a good chunk of the yr. Clement was a f***ing pussy and Wake couldnt pitch to any guy not named Mirabelli. You need 3 or 4 of the above to step up and then add Paps into the mix (who will be great one day if not this yr). BUT, this season the sox will need more out of their rotation because their offense will not be as strong. Also, the question of Foulke at the end of the pen will put undo pressure on the starters to go deeper into games.
Either way, the sox and yankees are two different beasts with two different ways that they can win, unlike season's past where they were very similar. The yankees do not really need solid starting pitching to make the playoffs because their offense and bullpen should be good enough to win 90+. If that pen falls apart, then it is a different story and the starters will need to put pressure on themselves. The sox have questions in the pen and a weakened offense from last yr. They NEED the starters to carry the load. As far as advancing on past the playoffs and into the world series and such, it all comes down to who is healthy and who is hot at the right time, not necessarily who has the better staff on paper.
Overall, the sox staff has more potential to be lights out because 1-5 they have the best stuff. The Yankees staff, IMHO, will be the most consistent because they have pitchers who dont all rely on the K and are not afraid to let a hitter put the bat on the ball. I know I kinda talked in circles, but I think that if I was a betting man on which rotation would put up the best numbers, I would hold onto my money because it is a crapshoot....