A lot of people have been down on Dice-K lately, and for good reason since hes gone through a rough patch right now. But fear not theres hope for him to turn it around, so I'll take the oppurtunity now to breakdown how Dice-K has pitched, and a breakdown of gamelogs to show exactly where he went wrong.
The Start:
Through the first three starts were fantastic, including 2 10 K performances, Dice-K had a 2.70 ERA and was looking like the ace we were expecting. He had little run support in two of those games but overall he looked dam good.
The next 3:
The next 3 starts were where hes ran into trouble. We got our first look at problem #1 in the game vs. Toronto where he had his spell of wildness however that time he was able to get out with only 2 ER however the next couple times he hasnt.
vs. Toronto (start #3)
Innings 1-3:
3.0 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
4th inning:
Strike out, single, walk, single, walk, walk.
1.0 IP, 2 hits, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
Innings 5-6
2.0 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
The Breakdown: He crusied through the first three and then trouble hit. It started with a single, and then he felt he got squeezed on a strike 3 call which lead to the first walk. Then he allowed another single. Then two more walks and luckily got out of it with only 2 runs allowed. Though he only gave up two singles, walks will absolutely kill you (the story so far).
vs. NYY (game 1)
Innings 1:
walk, HBP, double = 2 runs
Inning 3:
single, HBP, single = 1 run
Inning 5:
HR = 1 run
Inning 6:
single, single, DP scores run = 1 run
Inning 8:
single, Matsuzaka leaves, single, walk = 1 run
final line: 7.0 IP, 8 hits, 6 ER, 1 BB, 7 Ks, 2 HBP
The Breakdown: It started in the first. 2 outs and then the walk and then the HBP (which are just as bad as walks). Both the walk and the HBP scored on the double and theres 2 runs. Then in the 3rd inning, a single, HBP (again these will kill you) and then another single. Nothing hit real hard but you give an extra base and the Yankees especially will get you on that, tack on another run. 5th inning, a HR (a rare occurence so far), just good hitting there by Jeter, theres another run. 6th inning, pair of singles, and then run scores on the DP, just good hitting there. 8th inning, he probaly shouldnt have come out but gives up the single and then leaves and the MR allow the run to score. So thats 6 ER on the night, 2 of which scored on the BB and HBP.
vs. NYY (game 2)
Innings 1-3:
3.0 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
4th inning:
walk, walk, walk, single, single, single = 4 runs
Innings 5-6
2.0 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Breakdown: Cruises through the first 3 again like in Toronto, and then again. Walk, Walk, Walk, three walks in a row and then the Yankees take advantage and pick up 3 singles and thats 4 runs allowed, 3 of which scored were walks. And then again he comes back with 2 perfect innings.
vs. Seattle
Inning 1:
walk, walk, walk, HBP, double, error = 5 runs
Innings 2-4
3.0 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Inning 5:
walk, single, single, infield single = 2 runs
Breakdown: He never had it in this game. Started with 3 straight walks, had a HBP, a double and an error behind him. One ball was hit well that inning however the result is 5 runs. Breezes through the next 3 innings. In the 5th, a walk, and then 3 singles and thats 2 more runs.
Where we are now
His ERA has skyrocketed to 5.45, however his other peripherals are still very good.
-9.24 K/9
-.47 HR/9
-not allowing many XBH, 6 doubles, 2 HRs, all the rest singles
-high BABIP .317
The answer? Walks and HBP and unlucky?
- 3.55 BB/9
- 3 HBP
- high BABIP resulting in a higher amount of hits, as the year goes on this will go down and result in less hits allowed
Where do we go from here - a sabermetric point of view (stats from sosh)
FIP = 3.27 (5th in the AL)
FIP-ERA = -2.18 (one of the largest negative differencials in the league)
dERA = 3.11
So he appears to be a prime canidate to be able to turn it around. His problem has been walks, however he had a good BB/9 pitching in Japan, so theres no reason to think he cant drop his walk rates.
JAPAN 05 BB/9 = 2.05
JAPAN 06 BB/9 = 1.64
MLB 07 BB/9 = 3.55
(by comparison, Santanas BB/9 the past two years is around 1.80)
His walk rate will probaly go up a little since hes going from Japan to the Majors but hes had good command in the past so once he settles in more that rate should drop. And his walks have come in 2-3 1 inning places where hes just completely lost control. Not sure what happened there but with some work from Farrell and experience in the Majors he can limit those outbreaks and just dominate.
The point of this is, nobody should be worried hes a bust or anything. Its been 6 starts which you'll soon see is way too early to make any lasting impressions for any player.