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a700hitter

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Everything posted by a700hitter

  1. a700hitter
    No misunderstanding. Suffice to say that teams that are in the middle of the pack or below at the opening odds are not thought to be very good. There is no action at the time the initial odds are set to sway the odds. The initial odd setting is based on an evaluation of the relative strengths of the teams.
  2. a700hitter
    Wins will not correlate to the changes as directly and precisely as you are expecting. These numbers are very loose. Bottom line is I expect 79-84 wins. The only reason I expect some improvement is because we added talent to the pen. All the rest is a wash or worse. Your numbers will not translate to wins with such a direct correlation. Vegas and all other objective authorities view us as a 4th place or last place team.
  3. a700hitter
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1467880-predicting-the-final-2013-mlb-standings/page/2 The Bleacher Report predicts that the Sox will finish last. Objective authorities do not think this is a 90 win team. Cafardo is calling it a Bridge Year in his column today.
  4. a700hitter
    None of these numbers are precise. There are no direct correlations. If Lester returns to form, one or two of the other pitchers will under perform or get injured. Here's what I see as the difference in the 2013 team over the 2012 team and I have said this before. This is also not precise or a guarantee: The improved bullpen will add 10 wins Improved performance from Lester will add 5 wins at most Lackey adds nothing as he is replacing Beckett-- a wash. I see them topping out at 84 wins with a range from 79-84 wins. No talent has been added except in the pen, so the results will b pretty much the same except for the late inning pen. Guys who under performed last year may perform this year, but other guys will offset that with under performance. Everyone will not meet performance expectations. It just doesn't happen that way.
  5. a700hitter
    By blowing up the 2011 bull pen taking it from the top late inning pen to one of the worst. That cost about 10-12 games. The starting pitching was thin evidenced by two rookie starters in the rotation. One blew up spectacularly. The other performed admirably. The hole in the rotation was never filled--- that cost about 5 games or more. Lester's under performance cost about 5 games.
  6. a700hitter
    I believe that my tickets are for the 6th,7th and 9th, but I'd have to check. I may also go to a Sox game at Hammond stadium against the twinkies.
  7. a700hitter
    I have never accused you of being crazy-- just very optimisitic. I am not the only one that thinks 6 AL teams are better than us. Here are the Vegas odds as of today: Here is the full list of odds to win the 2013 World Series, along with odds to win the NL and AL pennants. 2013 WORLD SERIES ANGELS 7-1 DODGERS 7-1 TIGERS 7-1 NATIONALS 8-1 BLUE JAYS 10-1 REDS 12-1 YANKEES 14-1 BRAVES 14-1 PHILLIES 14-1 GIANTS 14-1 CARDINALS 14-1 RAYS 16-1 RANGERS 18-1 A'S 30-1 RED SOX 30-1 WHITE SOX 40-1 ROYALS 40-1 DIAMONDBACKS 50-1 ORIOLES 50-1 PIRATES 50-1 CUBS 50-1 BREWERS 60-1 MARINERS 80-1 Guardians 80-1 METS 100-1 PADRES 100-1 TWINS 100-1 ROCKIES 100-1 MARLINS 300-1 ASTROS 300-1
  8. a700hitter
    I'll be there for my annual trip-- March 5th - 12th.
  9. a700hitter
    So we agree that Nava is not a good depth option if Ortiz goes down?
  10. a700hitter
    If Ortiz misses substantial time, this team will be in big trouble.
  11. a700hitter
    Also, Penny had known shoulder issues.
  12. a700hitter
    If he is healthy, I don't see him wanting to honor that option year for league minimum. There is just not very much honor among athletes when it comes to the almighty $. Only time will tell if he has integrity. I'm not saying that he will refuse to play for us. It will be more subtle than that. Maybe he dogs it this season to the point where we don't exercise his option and he catches on with another team for an MLB contract with incentives. Also, I am amazed at the public relations campaign by the Sox to have us pin our 2013 hopes on Lackey. Seriously, they have nothing going for them if they are making John Lackey the poster boy for our 2013 hopes and dreams. The guy has always sucked at Fenway, even in his Angel years.
  13. a700hitter
    If Lackey believes that he got screwed over by the Red Sox medical staff, I find it hard to believe that he will go balls to the wall for the Red Sox this season who will rthen exercise their option to pay him the league minimum in 2014. If Lackey is healthy, he will try to get out of that option, especially since he thinks the Sox medical staff screwed him over.
  14. a700hitter
    Good point.
  15. a700hitter
    I agree with most of this. Our pen is the most improved part of our team. Victorino is replacing Cody Ross. He was pretty good, definitely not garbage. Pre-trade the team was not a .500 team. They were 7 games under. The starting pitching is weak and thin. We added nothing after 2011 and we added only Dempster after 2012. That will not be enough.
  16. a700hitter
    We will just have to agree to disagree on this. I do not ascribe to the philosophy that a s***** team can turn into a playoff team without adding talent but by having better injury experience. The 2012 team was a very s***** team. They weren't a team that just experienced bad luck. They were s***** in almost every aspect of the game. Better health is not going to be enough. I heard this same argument last year. People argued that the 2011 team was beset by critical injuries that wouldn't happen again in 2012. A healthy 2013 team will not pick up 20 games without adding talent. It will top out at 84 wins. If they get some key injuries, they will be a dead last 90+ loss team again. BTW, Ortiz is still not running. If he goes down, 100 losses would not be out of the question.
  17. a700hitter
    What makes you so sure that Lackey doesn't have a train wreck season.
  18. a700hitter
    If you don't add talent to your team, you don't get appreciably better. Performances go up and down, but not enough to make up 20 games. We have improved only our bullpen. I think they could make 10 games difference. I peg this team for 79-84 wins. No way is it a 90 win team unless we play the Stros 60 times.
  19. a700hitter
    5 of the 7 that I named will have better records than us. You can take that to the bank.
  20. a700hitter
    BTW, SFF, how many wins did you project that we would pick up last year because we lost Lackey and Wakefield under the addition by subtraction theory? I think you opined that we couldn't do worse than they had done.
  21. a700hitter
    Yankees, Detroit, LA, Texas, Rays, Toronto, Oakland That's 7. No, I don't see how we could be 20 wins later than last year. We will have injuries again this year as we do every year. It may not be to the same guys, but we will have them, and we still have no depth to withstand them. I'll go on record with my opinion that this roster, as it stands without additional acquisitions, is not 20 games better than last year's team.
  22. a700hitter
    Even if Lester and Buchholz improve, I don't think that will close a 20 game gap.
  23. a700hitter
    Some of my favorite times have been when he is spinning around like a top looking for the ball which is actually right at his feet while runners are scooting around the bases. Everyone is pointing at his feet and he looks everywhere but at his feet. The guy stinks. You just need to watch him for a couple of weeks to be able to see that.
  24. a700hitter
    I wish we had a pennant for every season that I heard that some player at the end of his career came into camp in the best shape of his life. It's meaningless. Let's see if his elbow holds up and whether his pitches have any life. Washboard abs and a smaller waist don't mean a thing.
  25. a700hitter
    None of this had anything to do with the trade. SFF, said that they went into the tank because of the trade. I think the trade had very little to do with their swoon as they were in that tailspin for the entire month of August before the trade. Did injuries affect the team? Certainly. But better health is not going to close a 20+ game deficit with the Yankees, Rays and O's. Plus, the Jays have massively improved their talent level.
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