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ORS

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Everything posted by ORS

  1. Without adding in the marginal outs, and just using my impression of their range, I'd say it would put the DER in the top 10.
  2. I think poor pitching can affect it. DER is essentially the BABIP of the pitching staff. BABIP is a gauge of how hard the ball is getting hit, IMO, and harder hit balls find a hole much more often. Bad pitching gives up more hard hit balls, typically, so that would raise the BABIP and DER.
  3. No. The principle behind RF is that in a large enough sample every player at the same position will see the same number of balls and the same types. Nubbers they have to charge, hard hit balls into the hole, deep IF pops, over time every SS sees the same number per inning in the field of these. It is not a perfect stat due to this assumption. In small samples, your idea of a variance of opportunity is true, but over careers it is a decent stat, moreso now than in the past due to the high amount of player turnover. Loretta's 4.88 means nothing by itself. Actually, that is not true. It means he made 4.88 outs per 9 innings. But, without perspective that tells us nothing. The league average in the AL was 4.92, so he was slightly below average. Now something else to consider, when trying to determine just the player's range, is F%. RF is dependent on how sure handed the player is. Loretta made very few errors, which is good, but in his RF that actually hides some of his range defficiency. Saying Jeter doesn't perform well in fielding metrics due solely to less opportunities is a flat out fabrication. ZR, FRAA, F%, and UZR also all rate him below average for his career.
  4. Range factor varies by position because different positions see different amounts of opportunities. League average for 2B last year was 4.92 (AL), and for 3B it was 2.69 (NL). Do you really think Loretta has good range? The guy is a statue. He's sure handed as hell, which helps his RF because he makes good on a higher percentage of his opportunities, but he doesn't get to many balls laterally. Same thing applies with Wright. Now Crede, by scouting has excellent range, and look at this, his RF was 3.24 with an AL average of 2.84. Do you think that is a coincidence? FYI, Jeter has always rated below average by RF, ZR, FRAA, UZR, you name the metric, he's below average for his career.
  5. ORS

    Zito watch

    Zito to Giants for 7 yrs / $126M
  6. ....that caters to male clientele.
  7. He's wearing the home whites.
  8. I saw a kid who hit the ball hard, but was bit snakebit with where the ball was headed. He stung the ball quite a few times that went right to a fielder. That .190 BA you love to point out was in only 89 ABs. That's less than a quarter of the season. You need more chances to let the bounces even out. Loretta was hitting .200 in mid-May, but he was hitting it hard. By the break he was up to .300. I saw a kid who wasn't a statue manning the keystone. I loved Loretta's sure hands, but everything left or right got by him. There's more to fielding than not dropping the ball. The thing I liked best was just his demeanor, though. I saw a 5' - 8", 175 lbs soaking wet kid that wasn't fazed by where he was. I could be off in what I saw, but I think it was enough to give it a go with him.
  9. One thing perplexes me in regards to this issue. I don't see consistency of opinion when one is critical of the FO for trading away a top-flight SS prospect (when the team needs one) while also being critical for planning to use a top-flight 2B prospect. If it pisses you off that they traded away Hanley, I don't see how you can be pissed that they are going to use Pedroia. Just doesn't add up. Personally, I get tired of the hand-wringing over whether or not a kid should get a shot. If he has performed at every level, and his position isn't filled, then you use the kid. That is what the minors are for. Cora is a capable backup. If Pedroia tanks, Cora gets the job for a month or two before a trade can be made. It took very little to acquire Graffanino when Bellhorn was making WMP look like a contact hitter. We are talking about the 9 hitter. This isn't a big issue. *The "you" in question here is anyone who has taken this stance, not just 700 who posted before me.
  10. Spread Category : Date & Time Favorite .................. Spread ........................ Underdog 12/30 8:00 ET NY Giants .................... -2 ..................... At Washington 12/31 1:00 ET At Cincinnati ............... -6 ............................ Pittsburgh 12/31 1:00 ET At Dallas ................... -12 ................................ Detroit 12/31 1:00 ET At Houston ................ -3.5 ........................... Cleveland 12/31 1:00 ET At Kansas City ........... -2.5 ........................ Jacksonville 12/31 1:00 ET St. Louis .................... -2 ........................ At Minnesota 12/31 1:00 ET At New Orleans .......... -3 ............................... Carolina 12/31 1:00 ET At NY Jets ............... -12.5 ............................. Oakland 12/31 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay ........... -3.5 ............................... Seattle 12/31 1:00 ET At Tennessee ............ -3 ........................ New England 12/31 4:15 ET At Philadelphia ......... -7.5 ............................... Atlanta 12/31 4:15 ET At Denver ................ -11 ...................... San Francisco 12/31 4:15 ET At San Diego .......... -13.5 .............................. Arizona 12/31 4:15 ET At Baltimore .............. -9 ................................ Buffalo 12/31 4:15 ET At Indianapolis .......... -9 .................................. Miami Sunday Night Football : 12/31 8:15 ET At Chicago .............. -2.5 ........................... Green Bay Straight Category : Date & Time Favorite .................................................... Underdog 12/30 8:00 ET NY Giants ............................................. At Washington 12/31 1:00 ET At Cincinnati ............................................... Pittsburgh 12/31 1:00 ET At Dallas ......................................................... Detroit 12/31 1:00 ET At Houston .................................................. Cleveland 12/31 1:00 ET At Kansas City .......................................... Jacksonville 12/31 1:00 ET St. Louis ................................................ At Minnesota 12/31 1:00 ET At New Orleans ............................................. Carolina 12/31 1:00 ET At NY Jets ..................................................... Oakland 12/31 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay ................................................. Seattle 12/31 1:00 ET At Tennessee ......................................... New England 12/31 4:15 ET At Philadelphia ................................................ Atlanta 12/31 4:15 ET At Denver ............................................. San Francisco 12/31 4:15 ET At San Diego ................................................. Arizona 12/31 4:15 ET At Baltimore ................................................... Buffalo 12/31 4:15 ET At Indianapolis ................................................. Miami Sunday Night Football : 12/31 8:15 ET At Chicago ................................................. Green Bay Sunday Night Football Total Points Scored : .................____27____
  11. My wife tried some new stuff and it all worked out really well. Orange marmelade glaze on the turkey. Ginger in the carrots. Sausage in the stuffing. Vanilla and brown sugar in the mashed sweet potatoes. Everything was great. I topped off dinner with a sampling of two of the gifts I got. A glass of JW Black and a Montecristo. All the indulging aside, the day was about my girls to me. The 3 y/o was up at 5:00 am and it began. She tore through about 1/2 her stuff in the first hour, but slowed as she wanted to play with everything. She finished up what we got her right around the time her grandparents all showed up at our house, so it was on to round two. She kind of got Christmas as a 2 y/o, but this year the sheer joy of the day really sunk in. It was better than being a kid myself. Overall it was a great day. Good food, good company, and good times. While my wife did a great job putting together the spread, I'm sure I'll be cursing it come Friday as I eat the same stuff for the 5th consecutive day.
  12. Merry Christmas Talksox! Tonight's feast begins with stuffed mushrooms and a baked brie. Dinner is turkey, roasted potatoes, mashed sweet potatoes, stuffing, carrots, asparagus with hollandaise. Dessert is grandma's homemade apple pie and a chocolate cake.
  13. I think you care what I think about it... Don't ask for it if you don't want it.
  14. Truth hurts, huh? The proof will come shortly. The NAAAAtional League West faces off with the toughest division in baseball this year. If you want some souveniers, Manny is visiting Chavez Ravine this year. I recommend the LF bleachers. EDIT: Oh yeah, I almost forgot. You guys have D-Lowe. He gets to see the AL East hitters again. You'll probably get to see your first "Derek Lowe Face".
  15. They really need to do a better job preaching the benefits of birth control.
  16. [noparse]You know how often times people will say, "Hey those numbers aren't spectacular, but they are really good for a player at that position (SS, C, 2B)". Well, VORP is just a way of putting every position on even footing. What it stands for is Value Over Replacement Player. A replacement player is considered to be bench level performance. They have looked back at decades of data and determined what type of performance the typical bench/MiLB player provides (something like 75% of league average for that position). They take the runs created by a player over a season and subtract the replacment level performance from that. This is a player's VORP. It is important to note that VORP only considers offensive contribution.[/noparse]
  17. Looks like both guys settle in at IsoD trends of about .070. Yes, there will be variation. Some will be higher, some will be lower. Melky ranged from .047 to .062 at his different stops in the minors. His .080 last year looks like a fluke at this point.
  18. No, I want to stop pulling stuff directly from your backside. A great majority of baseball players demonstrate similar patience levels throughout their entire career. I expect Melky Cabrera, like I will expect of every other player, to fit the model the trends suggest. Until he proves he can do otherwise, ie continue the anomaly, he's not getting a free pass, no pun intended, from me.
  19. You didn't look crap up. I just looked at over 30 players at random and every one but one had an IsoD in MLB within .015 of their IsoD in MiLB. The lone exception was Barry Bonds who put up ungodly IsoD rates from 2000-2006.
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