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I will be shocked if the Red Sox don't make a franchise-player run at Mauer. They undoubtedly realize that he's one of the best hitters in the game and can afford to have him as a DH if they need to later in the contract, or in order to keep him healthy. He may choose to stay with the Twins, but otherwise I think a town like Boston would embrace him appropriately.

1. I think Kazmir doesn't have the arm he used to. 2. The Rays have a good history with their deals. I bet they got at least fair value (present or future).

What does vulnerability have to do with it? If he were vulnerable he would make more outs. If Dunn were to be used as a DH, it is reasonable to say that his VORP would be the most accurate way of seeing his value to the team (since it doesn't take defensive liability into account). Check his VORP against most players in the league. It's pretty darn good.

IsoD is nothing but walks. It is average subtracted from OBP, thus "other ways of getting on base". The argument stands that Dunn has both more power than Bay and has gotten on base more. His avg is less and I would of course rather have Bay as an overall player, but people who are discounting anything Dunn has done are missing the forest for the trees here.

Yeah, my bad. They used to be in the East (I think). Th erason I think they play there is because I don't give a damn about the Pirates and their existence in the bottom of the standings year after year has not forced me to care. That said, isn't it an even better argument if we're trying to compare Dunn (with Cinci, NL Central) with Bay (NL Central) and their potential movement to the AL East?

I'm rooting for the Rangers for sure. Someone needs to knock the f'ing Yankees off their pedestal. They're a very, very good team and I want them to lose. Also, I'm less worried about the Rangers than I am about the Rays. The Rays scare me more than the Yankees do because: 1. they play better against the Red Sox than just about anyone in baseball 2. losing to them is more embarassing than losing to the Yankees 3. the Rays have all the makings of a great team for years to come

I think the Red Sox are pretty sure its the bolded part above. Interestingly, it is very hard to actually know what the answer is because there are so many variables at play. Do Japanese pitchers age well in Japan, where presumably they have the same workout throughout their career? If so, is it because of the workouts or the shorter season, or the smaller ball? The Sox (and most good MLB teams other than the 09 Rangers and Nolan Ryan) seem to think that a pitchers arm has a finite number of quality pitches in it and that it is important to use those pitches as effeciently as possible. Careful pitch counts, regular stress tests, steady progressions of innings from year to year throughout development, regular rest in the middle of the season all support that approach. I'm not sure how proven that theory is, but given that both the Sox and the Yankees are doing it regularly with their younger pitchers tells me that they seem to think it is the way to manage players when you have hundreds of millions spent on the team. There must be something to it. On the other side of things are the Japanese, who seem to think that only by throwing hundreds of pitches over and over and over will a player develop the stamina necessary to endure a long season and a long career. Physiologically it seems to make sense in a lot of cases (weight lifters need to lift to increase their capacity, nobody assumes lifters have a finite number of lifts in them, same with marathon runners). The question may be "is pitching more like an explosive action or like marathon running?" With Dice-K the answer may be that preparing you to be a marathon runner makes you able to tolerate throwing a lot, but whether what you are throwing is MLB caliber or just garbage might swing the discussion back toward explosiveness and maximum leverage. The Sox don't need Dice to throw 200 pitches. They need the 100 pitches that he throws to be as sharp and hard as they can possibly be. They'll take the rest from the bullpen, thank you very much! I'd be interested to know whether Oki threw a lot when he was younger or what his specific workout regimen was as he developed.

It may be weird to say, but I actually think the Red Sox have Daisuke right where they want him. Francona is usually glowing about his pitchers whenever they do something good, like Smoltz pitching a simulated game by himself in a batting cage for instance (okay, I made that up, but you know what I mean). With Daisuke--from this quote at least--he's not going to be overly praising or lauditory. Make Dice earn every bit of praise that he gets and work his ass off to prove that he belongs in this league. We've all seen him pitch at very, very high levels (I'd say 10+ K's in a game is an excellent level) and he was, without doubt, one of the best pitchers in Japanese baseball history. This year he showed up out of shape and insisted on pitching in the WBC. Then he sucked in games. Then he slammed the FO for their training program. He has a lot to prove if he wants to get back in their good graces. A solid #3 starter season from him and a good return this year would really help. Don't praise him. Don't set up a false sense of hope. Light a fire under him and let him prove that he's actually one of the best pitchers in the world when he's in shape and go from there. That is what the Sox were hoping for when they spent a boatload of money to win the rights to him and he's still young enough that he should be able to provide some quality starts moving forward. I don't believe there is anything wrong with his arm, merely that he didn't prepare for this season appropriately and threw too much in the WBC where, despite his WBC MVP, he looked pretty shaky.

I don't even know what to say to this thread. I think it is both a bump in the road and a cause for concern as they can't stand too many bumps in the road at this point in the season. If there were arm troubles he wouldn't be pitching--even with the season on the line. Nobody is sweeping it under the rug, there's just not much you can say when your ace is getting hit hard. "Try harder Josh!" "Get another ace Red Sox!" "Don't pitch him Francona!" There, I tried to say something, but it didn't make any difference and didn't highlight anything new. His fastball looked flat. His curveball looked mediocre. His ability to throw the ball over the plate looked fine. Not sure what to make of it. If he goes down then the Sox are cooked, so we will have to wait and see.

I could definitely see the Red Sox trading Papelbon. He's not going to play their salary game and resign for less, he's not going to accept a longer term deal so they can rely on him. He would have tremendous value in a big trade with other teams who could really use an ace in their bullpen. I know some dispute the ease of getting another big time closer, but with Bard looking effective and an experienced bullpen already intact, I think it would definitely be worth hanging his name out there and seeing who is willing to play. Talent wise he is nearly irreplacable. Money and future to the club wise he might be replaceable or at least useable as a valuable trading chip.

Yes, Sabathia got careless with 2 outs while Beckett is just getting hit hard. Isn't there a chart about your responses around here somewhere? I think this fits it well.

No. The Red Sox philosophy has never been that guys deserve close to 20m a year. Yeah, locking up young in-their-prime talent is a similar philosophy, but not at any cost. Also, in terms of investment on the dollar I assume you're not counting Pedroia, Youkilis and Lester, right?

Not much to disagree with there, other than the fact that the Sox got cheap with their pitching. I don't think they did. I think getting cheap with their team would have been just giving the spot to Buchholz or Bowden and not trying to add expensive FA depth. The got cheap in their discussions around Teixeira, but I don't know which pitchers were available for hire last year... they weren't going to pay for CC and Burnett signed a huge deal that they wouldn't have gone after either (because he isn't worth it to them). Otherwise, Penny absolutely sucked.

I have a sour taste in my mouth from all the reclaimation projects from this year. I have the same sense about Rich Harden. They're great pitchers when they're healthy. Of course, Bedard also has enough of a track record that he can probably demand more than a reclamation project salary. I would rather they play it conservative and pay more for a more steady thing. John Lackey has been more of a rock, though somewhat less spectacularly. I think this FO benefits most from being able to reliably predict what they have to build around. I think they have struggled with the "wide range" of possible outcomes of guys from Wade Miller to John Smoltz and with everything in between. Their system is based on predicting success when they plug pieces into the equation. With guys with such a variable health history I think that really makes that process difficult. This club has enough $ to not have to play with fire.

Yes. I argue that anyone who has a .420 OBP or a .385 career OBP may be vulnerable but also may be dangerous. Every hitter is vulnerable in one way or another. The real question would be who would be more readily available to step into the middle of the order. Honestly, I don't care about whether Dunn is a #4 or #5 hitter. He would be a middle of the order bat. I think he could be expected to put up 30 HR and 100 + RBI for Boston without needing to take much of a leap of faith. Something tells me that he stands roughly the same chance of not making an out as either Dustin Pedroia (low end) or Kevin Youkilis (Dunn in 2009). The Sox philosophy is to not give away outs, so high OBP is what they would be looking for. Furthermore, to completely discount the difference in SLG means that you are discounting the fact that when other guys (Bay, Drew) get hits, Dunn gets HRs. There's a benefit to that fact as well. I'll take Holliday in Fenway over Bay. I'd prefer Holliday AND Dunn. Ellsbury Pedroia Youk Holliday V-Mart Dunn Lowell Drew Lowrie With Washington struggling to sign Strausburg I could envision them being open to a deal for a handful of lesser talent to rebuild for the next few years and move Dunn. I don't think it would take the best talent in the system. Plus, being under contract next year means it is lower risk for the Sox. If he sucks or doesn't work out he is probaby 2 draft picks the following year. He may not be an ideal #4 bat, but I contend that he's as good as any options they have now. I don't believe that there's a huge drawback if he K's. *Notice how I skipped right over the condecending remarks about "charties" etc., you can just leave those out next time too. I don't have to look up numbers to back up my arguments but I think it makes the discussion better (and I bet most others agree).*

I would also cut ties with Ortiz, or trade him and all his money for something else. I think he would have a positive impact on clubhouses like Seattle or San Diego if a deal could be made for Felix or Gonzalez. He wouldn't be the centerpiece of the deal, but he would definitely be a name that fans can hang their hats on for a season if other serious talent comes along as well. Varitek's defense is absolutely horrible. He needs to go. V-Mart and some defensive whiz catcher (internal, FA, trade, whatever) would be my ideal choice. V-Mart can play 1B and they can put solid defense behind the plate on those days. When he's behind the plate then his offense speaks for itself and adds immediate value. Dipre is right that game calling can be managed from the bench. It can also be managed from the mound with Lester and Beckett and Dice-K. I don't like Bedard very much. I do like John Lackey, but I'm afraid of how much he'll cost. As a #3 though he would be very nice indeed (and would simultaneously hurt the Angels, a potential playoff foe).

No. Let's not leave it a that. If you're going to come and insult other people (trying to be a douche) then you better be prepared to back up your point. Here's what I'm supposed to have read of yours, and then put it into context: Not a whole lot of context to draw from that statement. His lack of contact is his only significant offensive flaw, and although it concerns me too, I think it is hard to justify all the praise that has come JD Drew's way the past few days on this board when his numbers are considerably worse than Dunn's. Last 3 seasons (07-09): [table] Name | G | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS + | Dunn | 431 | 112 | 294 | .261 | .395 | .548 | .943 | 141 | Drew | 353 | 45 | 176 | .270 | .385 | .466 | .851 | 117 | [/table] for that matter, why take Jason Bay out of that list? [table] Name | G | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS + | Bay | 414 | 79 | 271 | .264 | .360 | .485 | .845 | 118 | [/table] I would say that offensively Dunn is as good if not better than both of these guys (and I'm a big supporter of Jason Bay overall). I don't think Dunn is the best answer to be cementing the middle of the order; he might just be the best realistic answer.

I am suggesting Dunn under the assumption that there aren't other options through FA and that trading for that piece would be very, very expensive in terms of talent. There is definitely some skill to be derived from someone with such a low AVG who manages to have a career. 385 OBP. (.420 this season). I'm not NECESSARILY advocating for Adam Dunn being the boost to the lineup next year, but if we all acknowledge that with the necessary signing of Bay or Holliday, the continued contracts of Drew, Papi and Lowell, etc., adding Dunn for next year and then having him come off the books potentially for draft picks (same with V-Mart) wouldn't be a horrible place to be a year from now.

I'm just curious about Adam Dunn... what makes you think he's not a #4 hitter? His OBP is above .400 and his SLG and OPS are both better than Teixeira's. If this team could get rid of Ortiz (send him to Seattle... hint hint) I think he would be a more than appropriate upgrade as a DH. Not an offensive stalwart of a great lineup? He's never been in a great lineup, so how do you know?