example1

Sure thing. *note: By "I doubt they would ask for him"... I mean they'll ask for him, but they should know he won't be available and not be deterred from discussion because of that fact.

I think they will find that nobody offers them someone like Buchholz. I dubt they would ask for him. Kelly was rated as a five-star prospect by BP. Bowden could start for Tornoto right now, and Reddick could contribute to the big club right away too. Anderson or Rizzo could develop into a very good mid-order bat in a few years, Stolmey is 19 and is probably the 3rd or 4th best pitching prospect on the Sox. I'm not sure it would be these players exactly, but that's 4 of Boston's BP top 10 (#s 2, 3, 8 and 9) and #14.

You're saying they couldn't sign Halladay and Bay or Holliday in the same season? As if I'm on crack to suggest it? Those two seem like really, really obvious choices. I thought signing Chapman was the stretch. They could pay Halladay with the money they don't use on Ortiz and Lowell, and could pay Holliday with less than the money they offered Teixeira. Both are entirely reasonable. Plus I never mentioned resigning Halladay. I use him to make a run at 2010 and then either resign one of he or Beckett, or get a bunch of draft picks when they both leave and spend their salaries elsewhere. It seems like a cheaper way to compete with a 200m+ team. Again, it seems entirely reasonable. Thanks for your opinion though. :thumbsup: EDIT: This wasn't a post about the Yankees. I suspect they could sign Lackey or Figgins or trade for Granderson. Those all seem likely. You call Halladay the best pitcher on the planet, but I would contend the Yankees already have a good frontline starter in CC.

I've been working on this for a bit, here's where I go: Example1's 2010 Offseason Assessment: Contracted Players: C- Martinez (Varitek) 1B- Youkilis (Kotchman)(Martinez) 2B- Pedroia 3B- Lowell (Youkilis) CF- Ellsbury RF- Drew DH- Ortiz BN: Hermida (OF) BN: Varitek © BN: Lowrie (SS/3B/2B ) BN: Kotchman (1B ) SP: Lester SP: Beckett SP: Buchholz SP: Matsuzaka SP: Wakefield RP: Ramirez RP: Delcarmen RP: Okajima RP: Bard RP: Papelbon Needs: SS, LF, RP, RP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Where the Sox stand: Offense: Red Sox 3rd in RS in 2009: Yankees (915) Angels (883) Red Sox (872) Phillies (820) Twins (817) Rockies (804) Rays (803) Pitching/Fielding: Red Sox 11th in RA in 2009: 3rd in the AL Mariners (692) White Sox (732) Red Sox (723) Rangers (740) Tigers (745) Yankees (753) Rays (754) Red Sox 3rd best X W-L in MLB: Dodgers (99-63) Yankees (95-67) Red Sox (93-69) Angels (92-70) Phillies (92-70) St. Louis (91-71) Atlanta (91-71) I think that offers a pretty good idea of where the team stands on the field. They played like an uninspired group at times last year, but overall they were a very good club. They weren't as good as the World Series teams, but that's a high standard to hold. This team accomplished a lot despite some minor injuries (Youkilis, Bay, Lowell, Lowrie, Wakefield, Beckett, Baldelli) significant slumps (Ortiz), s***** play (Varitek, SS position,) and under-preparation (Matsuzaka, Penny/Smoltz). They have added what seems to be "MLB Ready" Clay Buchholz and a newly dedicated and embarassed Matsuzaka to the rotation that includes two excellent, World Series caliber pitchers already. At its finest, the Sox rotation is as good as any in baseball. They have also added Victor Martinez for an entire season, which I believe gets overlooked too often. He was a great acquisition for them. --------------------------------------------------------------- Filling the Sox Openings: Shortstop: They will probably end up resigning Alex Gonzalez and splitting time between he and Lowrie. That would be the safe option. Obviously they will explore the waters for elite SS like Hanley or Reyes, but if that type of player isn't available I don't think they will do anything that would block Jose Iglesias. Left Fielder: I've made it clear that I prefer Matt Holliday. I prefer him because I think he's better to build around, but I don't think poorly of Jason Bay. I just like Holliday better. I would be surprised if they didn't offer him at least $18m/yr for 5 years. He's worth it. He's a player I wouldn't be surprised if they topped $20m for and landed and took a lot of criticism for. I think the nay-sayers would be proven wrong in a year or two. Two Relief Pitchers: Last year they had a great bullpen and it carried them through some tough times. I think they can keep that going without too much difficulty. Great for SPs, great for the playoffs, great overall. *Offer Billy Wagner arbitration (which apparently he's open to discussing now). He may accept it (in which case you pay a bit more money to have an established LH closer) or he turns it down and signs elsewhere (in which case you may get compensation), or he turns it down and can't sign elsewhere and he can be signed for cheaper than arbitration. *If they can't get Wagner they could also look at Mike Gonzalez, LH pitcher. *They have some internal options too (Dustin Richardson maybe) who could be servicable. --------------------------------------------------------- Other Moves to Make: I think that this team is in really good shape long-term. Prospects Available The only prospects I would not move at this point in a deal are Iglesias (because a plus-defending Cuban SS is valuable), and probably Tazawa for political/franchise image reasons. I would only include Ryan Westmoreland for Adrian Gonzalez or Felix Hernandez (among those who might be available). I only hear good things about him and think he could be a superstar, which can take a franchise from very good to dynasty very quickly. Trade for Roy Halladay Make a really solid run at Roy Halladay without giving up the prospects listed above or Buchholz. I think it is possible with something like Kelly, Bowden, Stolmy, Anderson/Rizzo and Reddick/Kalish. That's a huge price to pay, but Halladay immediately makes this team considerably better and a beast in the playoffs. They may need to overspend to get past the Yankees, but the Yankees can have Lackey instead. Getting Halladay probably also makes Buchholz expendable in another deal if something really great comes along (Felix, Gonzalez, Prince Fielder or Hanley, for instance). Otherwise their rotation would be unbelievable for 2010: Halladay Lester Beckett Buchholz Matsuzaka Get Aroldis Chapman Another way for this team to add an impact player would be to be aggressive and sign Aroldis Chapman. They will end up paying him a fair amount to outbid the other teams, but it would be a move that generates buzz for the franchise, officially opens an international market of potential Red Sox fans, and would add a young, high-90's, lefthanded arm to a relatively young core. It sounds like the kind of thing Theo would be very interested in doing to pay off 2-3 years from now. Combined with Iglesias it would give them two young Cuban stars for their primes and, if it works out, the $6-9m/yr he gets paid could be worth it in increased influence in baseball-crazy Cuba. Apparently (according to BP) he and Iglesias are friends--perhaps that would influence him. Moves like that seem critical to allow this club to compete with the Yankees. International FAs are one place that the Yankees DON'T blow other teams out of the water. They pay very well, but they dont spend hundreds of millions. They had to swallow a bad deal like Julio Lugo, and I would say Chapman's upside is probably higher. -------------------------------------------------- That's about it... Overall Summary *Sign Holliday or Bay. *Fill the RP spots (preferably with Wagner as one option), *Trade for Roy Halladay, *Sign Aroldis Chapman. It may sound fantasy baseball-ish, but it seems entirely reasonable. We know they are interested in Bay or Holliday. We know they are interested in Halladay. We know they have kicked the tires on Chapman. We know they don't want to just sign FAs to sign FAs. I don't see Lackey or Chone Figgins or many of the other players as very good options given this FO's track record. A lot of money would come off the books in 2011 (including Halladay) and none of the above moves would handcuff them for the future. Ellsbury Pedroia Holliday Youkilis Martinez Ortiz Lowell Drew Gonzalez (specific order is debatable) Halladay Lester Beckett Buchholz Matsuzaka

Yet they were a mediocre defensive team and road team last year and I thought they were hoping to get better in both areas. Since the Manny-era started, the OF has looked pretty mediocre in the cavernous ballparks where the ball can roll and roll. I would love to see them put a player out there who combines some defense with some power.

I don't see it. I admit his power potential is nice to see, but I haven't seen much indicating that he'd be a good LF or 3B. Does this mean that the Sox are devaluing the defense necessary to hang in LF?

Re: Damon: IIRC, the issue was the number of years. They may have been willing to increase AAV but not years. Their valuation was correct about the biggest flaw with Damon. Give them credit, they are right more often than not. Re: Contreras: that was a formative experience for Theo and one which has shaped the organization. Silver lining.

Yeah, I'm going to take that with a giant gain of salt. Is there any reason to believe that the Sox are able to determine so quickly how healthy he is? It just doesn't sound like how they operate.

I disagree that this is what happened. As far as I read it, the Sox offered him 8 yrs (+ 2 vesting), at an AAV of $21.25m/yr. He would have been the highest paid Red Sox of all time, and the highest paid non-Yankee of all time by total contract value. His total contract would have been the fourth best ever, without the vesting options and he would be the second highest paid player in a single contract with the vesting options, behind two A-Rod contracts and ahead of Jeter. That was their final offer: the highest paid non-Yankee in history. It isn't irrelevant, it is very important. You are judging the individual characters and abilities of the people who are sealing the deal. I'm judging their methodology. Why was Damon in a position to be swiped up by the Yankees? Because the Red Sox determined that the only way the length of his contract would be worth it was if he wasn't paid a whole lot. They set a value and stuck to it and they were right. It's not that they lost the opportunity to overpay for Damon; they were never going to overpay for Damon.

I agree, though I would say it is a potential 10 year committment from the team. At his age, that is not a gesture of bad faith, no matter how you want to spin it. Its a security issue for the team to not give him more than 8 years as well, but they were willing to go that far. Multiple teams were. As Arte Morano said "No player is worth more than $160 million.” In this case the Sox went a full $10m more than another big market team who also stood to lose a lot by losing out on Teixeira. The Yankees don't think twice about paying guys $23m if that's what it takes. Apparently every other team does.

According to the article, Teixeira and Boras pushed back to raise it to 23m/yr for 8 years, claiming that the vesting criteria were too high. In other words, they either wanted Teixeira to have the options have to be picked up regardless of his performance (if he's able to DH, they have to pay him $21.25m/yr in the 9th and 10th years of his deal), or they wanted $23m/yr for 8 years, or about 20% of the Sox annual payroll for the next 8 years. That's an enormous contract. Re-reading this article now, I would say that 10 years, 212 million (or 8 years, $170m) are both really good offers. Later in the article: That offer was made by the Red Sox. This is the type of thinking that really seperates us my friend. Subsequent successes don't erase past failures? I think they do, especially when 'failure' can only be defined as not achieving a primary goal. If they hoped to sign Drew to play RF more than Abreu, then wouldn't getting Abreu instead of Drew be a failure? The rest of the OF was covered, and so was DH. It was one or the other. They got the one they wanted. Not a failure at all.

Lying about what? The only thing I've seen is that the Sox made an offer, then Teixeira made an offer, then the negotiations stopped. At most he would be lying by saying something like "my client made a reasonable offer for his services and the Red Sox declined". Reasonable in this case is totally subjective, and when we know the subject this well (Boras), I think we know what we can predict. You have seen the way Boras operates, right?