The Red Sox Need To Do Better Than Aroldis Chapman (But Also, It Will Probably Be Fine)

Rather than agreeing to terms with a frontline starting pitcher, a big right-handed bat, or even J*** S***, the Red Sox signed left-handed reliever Aroldis Chapman to a one-year, $10.7 million deal. While the seven-time All-Star still possesses a blazing fastball, he also brings more red flags than an F1 race. The most concerning of which, of course, is a 2015 domestic violence incident that resulted in a 30-game suspension the following year.

As is undoubtedly the case with many die-hard fans, it is important to me to have players I can and want to root for on my favorite baseball team. It is, therefore, extremely disheartening that Aroldis Chapman will be representing the organization this coming year. However, I do not call the shots in the team’s baseball operations department (yet), so I will begrudgingly root for his on-field success as long as he wears a Red Sox uniform. 

With that being said, let’s talk about the player. All offseason long, I have been saying that the Red Sox must prioritize adding a left-handed reliever with true swing-and-miss stuff, and Chapman meets both criteria. Even at 36, Chapman still struck out 98 batters in 61.2 innings and ranked in the 99th percentile with a 37.1 strikeout percentage. Though his fastball dropped a tick from 2023, he still averaged 97.8 miles per hour and could reach back for a little extra when he needed it. 

The most interesting part of Chapman’s 2024 campaign was his increased reliance on his secondary pitches. He threw his four-seamer only 34.2 percent of the time, a more than 50% decrease from just three years ago. In exchange, Chapman has ratcheted up his sinker usage to a career-high 27.2 percent, a pitch that limited hitters to a .198 batting average. Add a wipeout slider and a splitter with a nearly 50% whiff rate, and Chapman has the repertoire to succeed even if his fastball now sits in the high 90s instead of the low triple digits. 

Of course, Chapman's ability to generate swings and misses has never been a concern. Since entering the league in 2010, the Cuban left-hander has been one of the wildest relievers in the game, a problem that has seemingly gotten worse with age. In the last four seasons, Chapman has walked over 5.5 batters per nine innings, putting him in the first or second percentile in each campaign. For every day where Chapman strikes out the side with blazing heat, there will be a day where he simply can’t find the strike zone and will require a quick hook.

While Chapman’s lows will be mind-numbingly frustrating, the reality of this free-agent market is that there weren’t many left-hander options that could match his upside. Danny Coulombe and Hoby Milner can barely touch 90 with their fastball. A.J. Minter has seen his strikeout rate drop for three straight seasons and is coming off a season-ending injury. Will Smith was a disaster for the Royals last season, and Brooks Raley is a 36-year-old coming off Tommy John surgery.

Tanner Scott is the only left-handed free agent who can top Chapman’s upside and recent success. Like Chapman, the former Oriole always had elite stuff, but he seemed destined to a life in low-leverage relief due to spotty command. It took until 2023 for Scott to finally get his control in order, and over the past two seasons, he has posted a 2.04 ERA and struck out 188 batters in just 150 innings. After a 4.0-win campaign in 2024, Scott is hitting free agency at the perfect time, setting him up for a massive payday. 

With so many teams in the market for late-inning relief help, there is no guarantee that the Red Sox win the bidding for his services, and it would have been malpractice had the Red Sox gone into 2025 without improving their left-handed relieving depth. With the addition of Chapman, coupled with Justin Wilson and Zach Penrod's emergence, Boston has significantly upgraded from Bailey Horn, Joely Rodriguez, and Brennan Bernardino. This doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t still go after Scott, but it does mean that they have a higher floor no matter what else happens this offseason.

Look, nothing about having Aroldis Chapman on your favorite baseball team is ideal. He is inconsistent and volatile on the field and even more problematic off it. This is undoubtedly a poor way to kick off an offseason, and no part of me will enjoy seeing him trot in from the bullpen. Yet this is the situation we’re in, and as much as it might hurt to admit it, Chapman does make the Red Sox better. In a bullpen that lacks premium stuff, Chapman will present a different look that will pair well with the dependability of Justin Slaten, Liam Hendriks, and Garrett Whitlock, three pitchers who excel at pounding the zone but don’t have any true swing-and-miss pitches. 

The other aspect of this is that this signing is relatively low-risk. Contrary to what some people say, Chapman is not being brought in to be the closer. He’s not that guy anymore, and it seems there is a near-certainty that Slaten and/or Hendriks will get the first crack at the ninth inning. Chapman’s role will be matching up against lefties in the middle innings, and since he is only on a one-year deal, the Red Sox will have no issue pulling the plug if he doesn’t work out. 

The point here is that everyone needs to take a deep breath. This is not a make-or-break deal for the Sox, and I can guarantee there will be bigger moves down the road that are a lot more popular. It will be bizarre and dissatisfying to see Chapman in a Red Sox uniform, but from an on-field perspective, there are worse things than adding a fireballing lefty for $10 million.