Red Sox Playoff Scenarios: Two Vastly Different Paths to the World Series

Image courtesy of Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Red Sox Video

The Boston Red Sox are all but guaranteed to make the postseason in 2026. Technically, there’s a path to where they could be eliminated from postseason contention, but here at Talk Sox, we like to believe in this team (and statistical odds). For all intents and purposes, we're going to see this squad in the playoffs.

There are really two direct paths for the team to take to be able to play meaningful baseball in October. First, we have the path they are currently on: they continue to hold the second Wild Card position and return to New York to face the Yankees in a best-of-three Wild Card round. There, the hope will be that Sonny Gray, Payton Tolle, and Ranger Suarez can pitch well enough to keep the ball on the ground and not over the short porch in right field, while the offense has to find a way to score at least a few runs per game against Cy Young hopeful Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Rodon. That’s a tall task, but one the Red Sox likely won't shy away from.

The moment that the Red Sox put the pedal to the floor during the summer came when they went into Yankee Stadium and promptly swept the Bronx Bombers. The teams that will meet at the end of September will be different—Aaron Judge has returned for the Yankees and there’s still a bit of uncertainty around Ceddanne Rafaela’s return timeline—but the Red Sox have to feel good about going back to New York for a shot at redeeming last year’s quick exit. Winning the Wild Card series would put the Red Sox facing the Rays in the American League Divisional Series, and then onto face either the Guardians, White Sox, or Astros in the Championship Series. Having to string together back-to-back series wins against AL East rivals will be difficult, but not insurmountable.

The other path requires a bit of creativity, but it isn’t out of left field. I’ll start by saying that if the team is doing this (and with how they’ve played against the Rangers this week it’s certainly possible) they can’t admit it. The easiest path to the World Series, ironically, means tanking the end of the season to slide to the sixth seed in the playoffs. As of this writing, that would force the White Sox into playing the Yankees and the Red Sox would matchup against the Astros.

While it wouldn’t be fair to say the Yankees should win the first two games of the Wild Card round against the White Sox, it’s a safe assumption. That would make the Yankees and Rays duke it out in the ALDS while the Red Sox meet up with the Guardians just a couple of weeks after they met at the end of the regular season. While the final series against Cleveland has yet to be played, the Red Sox currently lead the season series 2-1 and they have mostly dominated the AL Central all season. This would also save the juggernaut matchup with either the Yankees or Rays for the ALCS, when it would become must-see-TV, while sidestepping having to play both clubs en route to the World Series.

Now, is it ethically dubious to "tank" for better playoff seeding, especially when you haven't already locked up a spot in the Big Dance? Absolutely. It behooves the Red Sox to win as much as possible down the stretch, knowing that they'd be walking into a very difficult path to make it to the Fall Classic. It's better to have some chance than no chance at all.

But whether it comes via the No. 5 or No. 6 seed, the point is that the Red Sox control their own destiny as we approach the final week of the regular season. Right now, all paths lead to October. It’s up to the starting nine on the field to determine which path they are going to take.