Red Sox Must Overcome Velocity and Weather Trends To Beat Yankees In Wild Card Series

Cam Schlittler’s four-seamer averages 98 mph, almost four miles per hour faster than your typical right-handed pitcher. His 12-6 curveball has maxed out at 90.2 mph this year. In other words, the 6’6” Walpole native throws the ball ridiculously hard. Most analysts will tell you that his large frame gives him a biomechanics advantage to touch triple-digit velocity. I’m convinced some of it is fueled by his perpetual RBF.

Schlittler isn’t the only high-octane Yankees pitcher the Boston Red Sox are going to see in the Wild Card Round. For instance, David Bednar anchors New York’s bullpen with a rising four-seamer (18” IVB) that averages 96.1 mph.

So, it's probably pertinent to ask: How has the team fared against velocity this season?

Mickey Gasper and Eli White feasted on hard pitches this year, posting OPS marks of 1.241 and .971, respectively, against premium velocity. Unfortunately, both players will miss the postseason. Gasper suffered from a right biceps strain, and White tore a ligament in his right foot on the center field garage door at Fenway. Jahmai Jones, who isn’t on the injured list, has handled 95+ just as well with a .977 OPS. Surprisingly, Roman Anthony .373 OPS ranks last among Red Sox batters. This is a significant drop from his .820 last year.

Then there’s the weather. Over the Wild Card Series, the Bronx is expected to see a temperature range between 59 degrees and 67 degrees in the evening. As we get further into the week, the temperature starts creeping up. Tuesday night is expected to be the coldest game. If the series extends to Game 3, Thursday night’s game will be the warmest.

Image courtesy of the National Weather Service

There’s a ton of existing research on how weather impacts baseball and I’m not going to get into the weeds of humidity/temperature affecting pitch movement here. Instead, I want to look at something simpler: the Red Sox’s record across different temperature groups. During the Angels series earlier this month, I theorized that the team played worse in colder temperatures. I had forgotten about it until the Guardians series last week, so I pulled the data. I grouped every game this season by first-pitch temperature: Cold (59°F and below), Mild (60 to 74°F), and Warm (75°F and up).

The Red Sox’s record didn’t support my theory. The “Cold” bucket consisted of 28 games, the fewest of the three and they played .500 ball with a +25 run differential in those games. Unsurprisingly, the team posted a .658 winning percentage and a +110 run differential in the “Warm” bucket, thanks in large part to the team’s historic 30-5 stretch in the middle of the summer. The “Mild” bucket contained the worst results: a .382 winning percentage and a negative run differential of -57.

Back to the forecast, two of three games in the Wild Card Series land squarely in the “Mild” range, where they went 21-34. If the Red Sox want to advance to the division series, they need to win in the weather that’s plagued them all year.

The Red Sox enter the first round of the playoffs as underdogs with velocity and weather working against them. They’ll face Schlittler’s triple-threat fastball mix tonight, sans Gasper and White. Fortunately, Schlittler is just one pitcher. As @Alex Mayes and I talked about on this week's Talk Sox podcast episode, once they get past Schlittler, Max Fried and a washed-up Gerrit Cole aren’t nearly as imposing. Anything can happen in the playoffs, and the Red Sox have thrived on chaos all season.

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