As The Red Sox Are Mired In A Losing Streak, Here Are Two Positives To Watch

The Red Sox have seemingly hit rock bottom in what has been a rollercoaster of a season full of frustration and mediocrity. The Red Sox traveled to Milwaukee to face the Brewers after suffering two straight losses to the Orioles. The Brewers swept the series but in two of the three games against the Brewers, the Red Sox held leads in the ninth and tenth innings.

Following a 16-10 April, the Red Sox have won just 10 of 25 games in May, and have lost five in a row. With third baseman Alex Bregman hitting the injured list over the weekend, it's hard to think of a lower moment so far in the Red Sox's season. However, the baseball season is long, and we all know the Red Sox’s recent campaigns have been full of minor skids and win streaks. Here are two players for the Red Sox who may spark a June turnaround.

Marcelo Mayer
Across his first five games with the Red Sox, former fourth overall pick Marcelo Mayer has looked the part. He has five hits and one walk in his first 20 plate appearances, with two of those hits being for extra bases. Mayer has matched his Triple-A average exit velocity of 90 mph. After striking out three times in a row to start his big league career, Mayer has either walked or put the ball in play in his 17 plate appearances since.

Although the sample size is minute, Mayer has taken professional big league at-bats, and his swing and bat-to-ball skills seem to translate well in the big leagues. There will be ups and downs, as we have seen with fellow rookie Kristian Campbell. However, Mayer stepping up could be crucial, as the Red Sox have continued to struggle offensively since Bregman went down.

Mayer did have one mental lapse on the bases Tuesday night, but those mistakes are to be anticipated so early in a player's career. Regardless of where he plays defensively, Mayer’s bat could provide a spark to an offense that needs someone aside from Rafael Devers if they are going to climb back above .500. 

If Mayer could simply continue to hit the ball hard and play a decent third base and shortstop, it would be an upgrade in the lineup. Other infield options, Campbell, David Hamilton, Trevor Story, and Nick Sogard, have combined for a negative total WAR this season. The Red Sox need Mayer to have a hot bat in the coming weeks.

Walker Buehler 
Walker Buehler had a slow start to the season, giving up nine earned runs across his first two starts against the Rangers and Cardinals. Since then, however, Buehler has given up just nine earned runs in six starts, and his ERA is down to a season low of 3.95. Since those two rough outings early on in the season, Buehler has heated up and emerged as a great rotational option for the Red Sox. Buehler proving he can still be a number-two starter behind Garrett Crochet could be critical for the Red Sox, who have had a middling rotation for most of the season.

A potential negative for Buehler is that his allowed Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) this season is .268, with a 45% ground-ball rate. Last season, Buehler had the same ground-ball rate. However, his BABIP ended up at .315. This suggests Buehler could be due for some regression this summer on the balls in play that he allows. However, Buehler’s expected ERA is nearly identical to his real ERA, showing he could continue this trend.

What Buehler has done at a high level this season is mitigate hard contact. Buehler is in the 92nd percentile in average exit velocity allowed and in the 86th percentile of hard-hit rate on his pitches. Those percentiles are the inverse of what they would be for hitters, meaning Buehler is consistently allowing some of the softest contact in the league. Buehler may just be a different type of starter at this phase of his career, as his strikeouts per nine innings have declined every season since 2019.

With a seven-pitch mix that features a sweeper to right-handed hitters, a knuckle-curve, and a changeup to lefties, Buehler now has the profile of a pitcher who can induce soft contact in various ways. If he can continue to pitch how he has in recent games, Buehler could be a huge part of a potential Red Sox turnaround.